MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 2 out of 297)

2. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 6)

3. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 13)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. OAK - Mike Fiers (No. 286 out of 297)

2. WSH - Jon Lester (No. 278)

3. TEX - Jordan Lyles (No. 276)

Today's Hottest Games

1. ARI at MIA (72 degrees)

2. TB at LAA (64 degrees)

3. NYM at STL (63 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. TEX at MIN (54 degrees)

2. DET at BOS (57 degrees)

3. TOR at OAK (58 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -100

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 100

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 3.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 115

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 3.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -150

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Nationals

Projected: 10.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

·  Blue Jays at Athletics

Projected: 9.20 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

·  Tigers at Red Sox

Projected: 9.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Phillies

Projected: 6.79 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 100

·  D-Backs at Marlins

Projected: 7.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

·  Astros at Yankees

Projected: 8.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

New York Yankees (16-14) vs. Houston Astros (15-15)

7.5 O/U | NYY -200 | HOU + 170

Gerrit Cole (THE BAT's No. 2 SP) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (THE BAT's No. 40 SP)

Dan Iassogna (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 40 in MLB)

Yankee Stadium (No. 11 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

59 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

10 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Lance McCullers Jr.'s groundball tendencies (58% GB% since 2019) should play well in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium (second-best HR park in baseball) today

·  Lance McCullers Jr. is throwing a slider 24% more often this season (24% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  Lance McCullers Jr. is throwing a curveball 11% less often this season (27% usage) than he did last season (38% usage)

·  Gerrit Cole's large reverse platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  Gerrit Cole and his 1.43 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 2.84 thus far in 2021

·  The Astros are the least strikeout-prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 19.3% according to THE BAT X

·  The Yankees' 0.311 team wOBA makes them the fifth-largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Astros offense has the No. 3 (tie) most hitters in baseball with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or better this year (Aledmys Diaz, Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The New York Yankees Moneyline is getting lopsided action as it has 76% of the bet tickets and 84% of the cash thus far

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total with 67% of the bet tickets and 71% of the cash is on the UNDER

·  The most profitable market for the New York Yankees has been their Game Total Under which is 19-11 generating 6.70 Units (20% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Gerrit Cole's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+ 105/-130)

Kansas City Royals (16-13) vs. Cleveland Indians (16-13)

8.0 O/U | KC -130 | CLE + 110

Danny Duffy (THE BAT's No. 66 SP) vs. Triston McKenzie (THE BAT's No. 93 SP)

David Rackley (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 29 in MLB)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 8 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

59 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

14 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Danny Duffy's fastball (93.2 mph) has been 1.7 mph faster than it was last season

·  Danny Duffy has added 114 rpm of spin to his fastball (2287 rpm) in 2021

·  Danny Duffy's flyball nature (36% FB% since 2019) should play well in Kauffman Stadium (best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Groundball pitchers tend to perform worse against Flyball hitters, and Danny Duffy (36% GB% since 2019) is projected to face four of them today

·  Danny Duffy and his 0.60 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.99 thus far in 2021

·  Triston McKenzie (90.5 mph) has lost 1.6 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Triston McKenzie's fastball (2249 rpm) has lost nearly 100 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Triston McKenzie's flyball nature (39% FB% since 2019) should play well in Kauffman Stadium (best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  The Indians are the third-least strikeout-prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.2% according to THE BAT X

·  The Indians' 0.293 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Indians offense has the third-most hitters in baseball with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or better this year (Cesar Hernandez, Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes, Jordan Luplow)

·  The Royals offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the fourth-most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Salvador Perez, Michael A. Taylor, Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as it opened at UNDER 8.5 Runs (-105), but has been bet down to UNDER 8.0 (-105)

·  The Cleveland Indians Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 18-11 resulting in 4.40 Units (11% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Danny Duffy's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)

Miami Marlins (13-16) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (15-15)

7.5 O/U | MIA -135 | ARI + 115

Pablo Lopez (THE BAT's No. 31 SP) vs. Madison Bumgarner (THE BAT's No. 250 SP)

Jansen Visconti (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 43 in MLB)

Marlins Park (No. 28 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)

72 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Madison Bumgarner's fastball (89.9 mph) has been 2.0 mph faster than it was last season

·  Madison Bumgarner has added 124 rpm of spin to his fastball (2519 rpm) in 2021

·  Madison Bumgarner's flyball nature (37% FB% since 2019) should play well in Marlins Park (second-best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Groundball pitchers tend to perform worse against Flyball hitters, and Madison Bumgarner (37% GB% since 2019) is projected to face 2 of them today

·  Pablo Lopez and his 2.34 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.69 thus far in 2021

·  The Marlins are the most strikeout-prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.7% according to THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the D-Backs and their 0.318 wOBA have been the second-luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This season, the D-Backs Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 18-10 resulting in 5.56 Units (16% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Pablo Lopez's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts ( 105/-140)

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

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