MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Shane Bieber (No. 5 out of 299)

2. LAA - Shohei Ohtani (No. 18)

3. CIN - Sonny Gray (No. 27)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Bruce Zimmermann (No. 271 out of 299)

2. SEA - Chris Flexen (No. 211)

3. SD - Ryan Weathers (No. 198)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. SD at MIL - Ryan Blakney (No. 16 out of 110)

2. CLE at DET - Roberto Ortiz (No. 19)

3. CHC at PIT - Ryan Additon (No. 29)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. KC at TB - Mark Carlson (No. 8 out of 110)

Today's Hottest Games

1. STL at ARI (84 degrees)

2. TOR at NYY (80 degrees)

3. COL at NYM (80 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. TEX at SEA (55 degrees)

2. BAL at CWS (58 degrees)

3. LAA at OAK (59 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 4.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 100

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 4.50 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Mets

Projected: 2.13 runs

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 2.40 runs

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 2.87 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Cardinals at D-Backs

Projected: 9.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

·  Orioles at White Sox

Projected: 8.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

·  Giants at Dodgers

Projected: 8.40 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Mets

Projected: 4.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Reds at Nationals

Projected: 6.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -105

·  Phillies at Marlins

Projected: 6.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O + 105

Pittsburgh Pirates (18-30) vs. Chicago Cubs (26-22)

O/U: 7.5 | PIT + 120 | CHC -140

Tyler Anderson (THE BAT's No. 176 SP) vs. Kyle Hendricks (THE BAT's No. 68 SP)

Ryan Additon (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 29 in MLB)

PNC Park (No. 20 Runs | No. 26 HR | No. 25 K)

68 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

6 mph out to CF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tyler Anderson's fastball spin rate (2444 rpm) has jumped 140 rpm since 2020

·  Tyler Anderson's cutter usage (28% in 2021, 17% in 2020) has increased 11% this season

·  Tyler Anderson's skillset (34% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in PNC Park (No. 2 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Tyler Anderson (34% FB% since 2019) projects to face three Groundball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Flyball pitchers perform worst against Groundball hitters

·  Kyle Hendricks (86.1 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Kyle Hendricks is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  Kyle Hendricks's 4.74 ERA is 0.50 points better than his 5.25 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Chicago Cubs's 27.2 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 1 most on today's slate of games

·  The Cubs offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Willson Contreras, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 7.5 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 68% of the bet tickets and 88% of the cash is on the Cubs

·  The Cubs Run Line has 68% of the bet tickets and 80% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 30-15 resulting in + 12.85 Units (24% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Pittsburgh Pirates has been their Team Total Under which is 28-19 generating + 5.69 Units (10% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays (31-20) vs. Kansas City Royals (23-24)

O/U: 7.5 | TB -180 | KC + 160

Shane McClanahan (THE BAT's No. 82 SP) vs. Brady Singer (THE BAT's No. 65 SP)

Mark Carlson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 8 in MLB)

Tropicana Field (No. 30 Runs | No. 19 HR | No. 3 K)

72 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Shane McClanahan has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 8 opposite-handed hitters today

·  Brady Singer is throwing a fastball 44% less often this season (1% usage) than he did last season (45% usage)

·  Brady Singer has been throwing a sinker (51% increase) far more often in 2021 (64% usage) than he did in 2020 (13% usage)

·  Brady Singer (52% GB% since 2019) projects to face 2 Flyball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Groundball pitchers perform best against Flyball hitters

·  Brady Singer has a huge platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 7 opposite-handed hitters today

·  Brady Singer has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.00 ERA despite a 3.42 FIP

·  The Rays offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Austin Meadows, Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe)

·  The Royals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.293 wOBA going forward

·  The Royals offense is quite fast; they have the No. 4 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield, Michael A. Taylor)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Run Line as 67% of the bet tickets are on the Rays, but 89% of the cash is on the Royals

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 79% of the bet tickets and 79% of the cash on the Rays

·  The Tampa Bay Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 33-18 resulting in + 14.00 Units (20% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Kansas City Royals has been their Team Total Under which is 26-18 generating + 6.53 Units (13% ROI)

Detroit Tigers (19-30) vs. Cleveland Indians (26-21)

O/U: 7 | DET + 140 | CLE -160

Matthew Boyd (THE BAT's No. 93 SP) vs. Shane Bieber (THE BAT's No. 5 SP)

Roberto Ortiz (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 19 in MLB)

Comerica Park (No. 14 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

63 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Matthew Boyd has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 6 opposite-handed hitters today

·  Matthew Boyd's 3.08 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.02 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  This season, Shane Bieber's fastball (92.4 mph) has been 1.1 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Shane Bieber is throwing a slider 16% more often this season (27% usage) than he did last season (11% usage)

·  Shane Bieber has been throwing a cutter (11% increase) far less often in 2021 (3% usage) than he did in 2020 (14% usage)

·  The Tigers (26.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The projected lineup for the Tigers holds 3 extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Niko Goodrum, Akil Baddoo, Eric Haase. THE BAT projects all for a Niko Goodrum, Akil Baddoo, Eric Haase+ underlying K%

·  The Cleveland Indians's 20.7 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 1 least on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X projects the Indians (No. 2 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.291 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Indians offense is quite fast; they have the No. 4 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario, Cesar Hernandez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Tigers Moneyline as it has dropped from + 155 to + 140 despite only getting 12% of the cash

·  The Run Line has the most lopsided action today with 84% of the bet tickets and 74% of the cash on the Indians

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 72% of the bet tickets and 88% of the cash on the Indians

·  The Detroit Tigers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 28-20 resulting in + 6.00 Units (11% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Cleveland Indians has been their Team Total Under which is 27-19 generating + 5.73 Units (10% ROI)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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