MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIN - Jose Berrios (No. 42 out of 298)

2. TEX - Dane Dunning (No. 50)

3. MIA - Sandy Alcantara (No. 56)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 263 out of 298)

2. ARI - Merrill Kelly (No. 237)

3. SF - Johnny Cueto (No. 209)

Today's Hottest Games

1. TB at BAL (83 degrees)

2. BOS at TOR (82 degrees)

3. SF at CIN (81 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. HOU at OAK (62 degrees)

2. ARI at LAD (68 degrees)

3. MIN at LAA (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 5.43 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 5.43 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 3.13 runs

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 3.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Nationals at Cubs

Projected: 10.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -105

·  Red Sox at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  Giants at Reds

Projected: 9.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at Angels

Projected: 7.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.0 O -120

·  Yankees at Rangers

Projected: 8.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O + 100

·  Marlins at Phillies

Projected: 8.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Cincinnati Reds (19-22) vs. San Francisco Giants (27-16)

O/U: 8.5 | CIN -150 | SF + 130

Tyler Mahle (THE BAT's No. 68 SP) vs. Johnny Cueto (THE BAT's No. 209 SP)

Nic Lentz (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 6 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

81 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

5 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  The spin rate on Tyler Mahle's fastball (2488 rpm) has increased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Johnny Cueto may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 84 pitches

·  Johnny Cueto is throwing a slider 21% more often this season (29% usage) than he did last season (8% usage)

·  Johnny Cueto is throwing a curveball 18% less often this season (3% usage) than he did last season (21% usage)

·  Johnny Cueto has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face 7 of today

·  Johnny Cueto (3.62 ERA) has been underperforming his 3.09 FIP by 0.53 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  The Reds (26.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Reds (0.324 wOBA) have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Reds have 3 players (Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Giants (26.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Giants (0.311 wOBA) have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  San Francisco boasts 4 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Darin Ruf)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  The Run Line has two-way action as 60% of the bet tickets are on the Reds, but 58% of the cash is on the Giants

·  The Reds Moneyline has 75% of the cash and 54% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The San Francisco Giants Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 28-15 resulting in + 16.50 Units (31% ROI)

·  This season the Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 26-13 resulting in + 11.60 Units (26% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Nick Castellanos's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 340/-645)

Baltimore Orioles (17-25) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (25-19)

O/U: 9 | BAL + 140 | TB -160

Dean Kremer (THE BAT's No. 193 SP) vs. Rich Hill (THE BAT's No. 129 SP)

Jansen Visconti (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 41 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 5 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

83 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

5 mph in from RF (No. 2 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  As an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% since 2019), Dean Kremer may not be a great fit for the No. 4 HR in baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards, today

·  Given that Flyball pitchers are least effective against Groundball hitters, Dean Kremer (40% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with 3 Groundball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Dean Kremer has a large reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face seven of today

·  Thus far in 2021, Rich Hill's fastball (88.2 mph) has been 1.0 mph faster than it was last season

·  The Rays have four players (Austin Meadows, Willy Adames, Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Run Line for the Tampa Bay Rays was -1.5 (+ 100), but is now -1.5 (-110) after it steamed 10 cents

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 84% of the bet tickets and 77% of the cash on the Rays

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 87% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets is on the Rays

·  This season the Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 28-16 resulting in + 10.75 Units (17% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Baltimore Orioles has been their Game Total Under which is 23-17 generating + 4.35 Units (9% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Dean Kremer's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+ 110)

Los Angeles Angels (18-24) vs. Minnesota Twins (14-27)

O/U: 6 | LAA + 100 | MIN -120

Alex Cobb (THE BAT's No. 114 SP) vs. Lewis Thorpe (THE BAT's No. 205 SP)

Angel Stadium (No. 21 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

70 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

10 mph out to LF (No. 5 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Griffin Canning's fastball (93.1 mph) is nearly a full mph faster than it was in 2020

·  Alex Cobb is throwing a fastball 48% less often this season (0% usage) than he did last season (48% usage)

·  Alex Cobb has been throwing a sinker (39% increase) far more often in 2021 (39% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Griffin Canning has been throwing a slider (13% increase) far more often in 2021 (33% usage) than he did in 2020 (20% usage)

·  Griffin Canning is throwing a curveball 17% less often this season (7% usage) than he did last season (24% usage)

·  Alex Cobb's ability to keep the ball on the ground (53% GB% since 2019) should help him in Angel Stadium (No. 8 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Alex Cobb (53% GB% since 2019) projects to face 2 Flyball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Groundball pitchers perform worst against Flyball hitters

·  THE BAT's 3.98 projected ERA for Griffin Canning is quite a bit better than his 4.55 ERA this season

·  Jose Berrios has added nearly 100 rpm of spin to his fastball (2285 rpm) in 2021

·  Lewis Thorpe's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  The projected lineup for the Twins holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Miguel Sano, Kyle Garlick, Mitch Garver.

·  Minnesota boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Twins Moneyline has 44% of the cash, but the it's dropped from -115 to -120 resulting in reverse line movement

·  This season the Twins Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 24-15 resulting in + 7.75 Units (17% ROI)

·  This season the Angels Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 24-18 resulting in + 3.35 Units (7% ROI)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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