MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 3 out of 298)

2. STL - Jack Flaherty (No. 17)

3. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 21)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 269 out of 298)

2. COL - Chi Chi Gonzalez (No. 250)

3. ARI - Merrill Kelly (No. 239)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. NYY at TB - Doug Eddings (No. 7 out of 110)

2. STL at MIL - Todd Tichenor (No. 38)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. KC at DET - Edwin Moscoso (No. 2 out of 110)

2. MIN at CWS - Mark Carlson (No. 7)

3. PHI at WSH - Jeff Nelson (No. 22)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIA at ARI (85 degrees)

2. NYY at TB (72 degrees)

3. TEX at HOU (72 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. TOR at ATL (60 degrees)

2. PHI at WSH (61 degrees)

3. SF at PIT (62 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 6.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -125

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 4.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.12 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -140

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 3.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Reds at Rockies

Projected: 10.76 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -115

·  Athletics at Red Sox

Projected: 9.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -110

·  Royals at Tigers

Projected: 9.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Cardinals at Brewers

Projected: 6.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -110

·  Indians at Mariners

Projected: 7.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

·  Blue Jays at Braves

Projected: 8.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Atlanta Braves (17-19) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (19-16)

O/U: 8.5 | ATL -160 | TOR + 140

Charlie Morton (THE BAT's No. 21 SP) vs. Ross Stripling (THE BAT's No. 146 SP)

Truist Park (No. 13 Runs | No. 21 HR | No. 23 K)

60 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Despite a 4.25 FIP, Charlie Morton's unlucky ERA has been 0.73 points worse at 4.98

·  Ross Stripling has been throwing a slider (12% increase) far more often in 2021 (24% usage) than he did in 2020 (12% usage)

·  Ross Stripling's fastball (2184 rpm) has lost nearly 100 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Ross Stripling has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  The Braves (25.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Atlanta boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, tied for third-most in MLB (Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley)

·  The Blue Jays have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the second-unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.308 wOBA going forward

·  The Blue Jays have 4 players (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez, Bo Bichette) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Braves Moneyline has steamed 15 cents as it opened at -145 and is now -160

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 81% of the bet tickets and 71% of the cash on the Braves

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 77% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 40% of the cash is on the OVER

·  There is two-way action on the Run Line as 64% of the bet tickets are on the Braves, but 68% of the cash is on the Blue Jays

·  The most profitable market for the Atlanta Braves has been their Team Total Over which is 20-13 generating + 4.49 Units (11% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Toronto Blue Jays has been their Moneyline which is 19-16 generating + 3.15 Units (8% ROI)

Boston Red Sox (22-16) vs. Oakland Athletics (23-15)

O/U: 9 | BOS -120 | OAK + 100

Garrett Richards (THE BAT's No. 126 SP) vs. Sean Manaea (THE BAT's No. 42 SP)

Fenway Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 16 HR | No. 18 K)

65 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

4 mph out to LF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Garrett Richards (93.2 mph) has lost 1.4 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Garrett Richards has been throwing a slider (12% increase) far less often in 2021 (25% usage) than he did in 2020 (37% usage)

·  Garrett Richards has been throwing a curveball (11% increase) far more often in 2021 (18% usage) than he did in 2020 (7% usage)

·  Sean Manaea (90.8 mph) has added 1.1 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Sean Manaea is throwing a fastball 54% less often this season (0% usage) than he did last season (54% usage)

·  Sean Manaea's sinker usage (58% in 2021, 0% in 2020) has increased 58% this season

·  Sean Manaea and his 3.07 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.68 thus far in 2021

·  The Red Sox (0.324 wOBA) have been the sixth-luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  Boston boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, tied for the most in MLB (Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Hunter Renfroe, Xander Bogaerts)

·  The Athletics offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty, Seth Brown)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  There is reverse line movement on the Red Sox Moneyline as it's dropped from -110 to -120 despite only getting 33% of the cash

·  The Run Line has two-way action as 77% of the bet tickets are on the Red Sox, but 96% of the cash is on the Athletics

·  The Game Total has lopsided action today with 66% of the bet tickets and 65% of the cash on the OVER

·  The Boston Red Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 23-15 resulting in + 10.20 Units (23% ROI)

·  The Oakland Athletics Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 23-15 resulting in + 7.10 Units (15% ROI)

Houston Astros (20-17) vs. Texas Rangers (18-20)

O/U: 8.5 | HOU -210 | TEX + 175

Cristian Javier (THE BAT's No. 93 SP) vs. Mike Foltynewicz (THE BAT's No. 186 SP)

Minute Maid Park (No. 21 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Cristian Javier's fastball (92.4 mph) is nearly a full mph faster than it was in 2020

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against Groundball hitters, and Cristian Javier (46% FB% since 2019) is projected to face 3 of them today

·  Cristian Javier's 2.90 ERA is 0.55 points better than his 3.46 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Astros are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 19.0% according to THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.326 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Astros have 4 players (Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, tied for second-most in MLB

·  THE BAT X views the Rangers as the second-most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Rangers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they are tied for the third-most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Charlie Culberson, Willie Calhoun, Adolis Garcia)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  This game has the most lopsided Game Total today as 79% of the bet tickets and 88% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 79% of the bet tickets and 80% of the cash on the Astros

·  The Houston Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 21-15 resulting in + 4.65 Units (11% ROI)

·  This season the Rangers Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 22-15 resulting in + 4.57 Units (10% ROI)

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