MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 3 out of 296)

2. SD - Yu Darvish (No. 24)

3. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 25)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CIN - Vladimir Gutierrez (No. 273 out of 296)

2. TEX - Mike Foltynewicz (No. 222)

3. CHC - Zach Davies (No. 221)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. TB at NYY - Chad Whitson (No. 31 out of 110)

2. TEX at COL - David Rackley (No. 38)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CIN at STL (80 degrees)

2. MIN at KC (80 degrees)

3. ARI at MIL (79 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CHC at SF (58 degrees)

2. NYM at SD (63 degrees)

3. TB at NYY (65 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 5.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.51 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 5.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 3.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -115

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Rangers at Rockies

Projected: 11.17 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

·  D-Backs at Brewers

Projected: 10.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Nationals at Braves

Projected: 10.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Padres

Projected: 7.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -115

·  Rays at Yankees

Projected: 8.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

·  Marlins at Pirates

Projected: 8.45 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

Pittsburgh Pirates (20-34) vs. Miami Marlins (24-30)

O/U: 8 | PIT + 108 | MIA -118

Tyler Anderson (THE BAT's No. 180 SP) vs. Elieser Hernandez (THE BAT's No. 128 SP)

PNC Park (No. 21 Runs | No. 26 HR | No. 25 K)

69 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tyler Anderson has added 133 rpm of spin to his fastball (2437 rpm) in 2021

·  Tyler Anderson is throwing a cutter 11% more often this season (28% usage) than he did last season (17% usage)

·  As an extreme flyball pitcher (35% FB% since 2019), Tyler Anderson matches up well with PNC Park (No. 4 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that Flyball pitchers are least effective against ground ball hitters, Tyler Anderson (35% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with five ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  The Marlins (26.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Marlins have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Jorge Alfaro, Jazz Chisholm, Elieser Hernandez)

·  Miami boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Adam Duvall, Jon Berti, Jazz Chisholm)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most profitable market for the Pittsburgh Pirates has been their Team Total Under which is 31-21 generating + 6.34 Units (10% ROI)

·  The Miami Marlins Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 29-22 resulting in + 4.65 Units (8% ROI)

·  Tyler Anderson's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+ 105) is the most popular prop for the game

Milwaukee Brewers (29-26) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (20-37)

O/U: 9 | MIL -165 | ARI + 150

Brett Anderson (THE BAT's No. 213 SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

American Family Field (No. 16 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

79 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

9 mph out to LF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  American Family Field is baseball's No. 10 best park for home runs, but Brett Anderson's groundball-heavy skillset (56% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Brett Anderson has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.18 ERA is 1.31 points below his 5.49 FIP

·  The Brewers are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 24.5% according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X projects the Brewers (No. 1 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.289 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Arizona Diamondbacks's 20.6 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 least on today's slate of games

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as it opened at OVER 8.5 Runs (-110), but has been bet up to OVER 9 (-120)

·  The most profitable market for the Arizona Diamondbacks has been their Game Total Over which is 30-26 generating + 1.30 Units (2% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Milwaukee Brewers has been their Run Line which is 28-27 generating + 1.10 Units (1% ROI)

·  Christian Yelich's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 285/-490)

Kansas City Royals (27-26) vs. Minnesota Twins (22-33)

O/U: 9.5 | KC -120 | MIN + 100

Kris Bubic (THE BAT's No. 145 SP) vs. J.A. Happ (THE BAT's No. 196 SP)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 10 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

80 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

4 mph out to CF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kris Bubic's fastball velocity (90.0 mph) has been down nearly a full mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  Kris Bubic's fastball (2062 rpm) has lost 118 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Kris Bubic has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 1.59 ERA is 2.20 points below his 3.79 FIP

·  J.A. Happ's fastball velocity (89.9 mph) has been down 1.1 mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  J.A. Happ is projected to face eight opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  The Royals are the No. 4 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.5% according to THE BAT X

·  Kansas City boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez, Carlos Santana)

·  The Twins (22.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9 runs, but is now 9.5 runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  The most profitable market for the Minnesota Twins has been their Game Total Over which is 34-18 generating + 14.25 Units (23% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Kansas City Royals has been their Run Line which is 30-22 generating + 7.20 Units (11% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Nelson Cruz's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 260/-435)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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