MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 24 out of 294)

2. MIN - Jose Berrios (No. 37)

3. OAK - Chris Bassitt (No. 46)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. TB - Michael Wacha (No. 281 out of 294)

2. PIT - Chad Kuhl (No. 275)

3. DET - Jose Urena (No. 269)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. KC at NYY - Alex Tosi (No. 32 out of 110)

2. BOS at TB - Mark Ripperger (No. 36)

Today's Hottest Games

1. ATL at CIN (86 degrees)

2. PIT at STL (86 degrees)

3. CLE at MIN (85 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. OAK at TEX (70 degrees)

2. BOS at TB (72 degrees)

3. WSH at MIA (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 5.47 runs

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -130

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Reds

Projected: 10.74 runs

·  Orioles at Blue Jays

Projected: 9.79 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

·  Indians at Twins

Projected: 9.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Nationals at Marlins

Projected: 8.03 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  Athletics at Rangers

Projected: 8.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Pirates at Cardinals

Projected: 8.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O + 100

 

GAMES OF THE DAY

New York Yankees (39-34) vs. Kansas City Royals (33-39)

O/U: 9.5 | NYY -200 | KC + 170

Jameson Taillon (THE BAT's No. 59 SP) vs. Brad Keller (THE BAT's No. 138 SP)

Alex Tosi (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 32 in MLB)

Yankee Stadium (No. 17 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

76 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

9 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Brad Keller's fastball (93.7 mph) has been 1.4 mph faster than it was last season

·  Brad Keller is throwing a sinker 10% more often this season (32% usage) than he did last season (22% usage)

·  Yankee Stadium is baseball's No. 2 best park for home runs, but Brad Keller's ground ball-heavy skillset (50% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Fly ball hitters, and Brad Keller (50% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  The New York Yankees' 26.4 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 most on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X projects the Yankees (No. 3 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.310 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  New York boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Rougned Odor, Aaron Judge)

·  Kansas City boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Michael A. Taylor, Whit Merrifield, Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 10.0 Runs and is now 9.5 Runs

·  The Yankees Run Line has 83% of the bet tickets and 85% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 85% of the bet tickets and 78% of the cash is on the Yankees

·  The New York Yankees Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 43-29 resulting in + 11.96 Units (15% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Kansas City Royals has been their Team Total Under which is 37-32 generating + 2.87 Units (4% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Jameson Taillon's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 135/-175)

Toronto Blue Jays (37-35) vs. Baltimore Orioles (23-51)

O/U: 10.5 | TOR -180 | BAL + 160

Anthony Kay (THE BAT's No. 193 SP) vs. Dean Kremer (THE BAT's No. 199 SP)

Sahlen Field

76 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

11 mph in from CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Given that fly ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Dean Kremer (42% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Dean Kremer has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face seven of today

·  The Blue Jays are the No. 4 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 23.1% according to THE BAT X

·  Toronto boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez)

·  The Orioles are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 23.5% according to THE BAT X

·  The Orioles offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Pedro Severino, Maikel Franco, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 11.0 Runs and is now 10.5 Runs

·  The Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline opening price of -160 has steamed 20 cents and is now -180

·  The Game Total has lopsided action today with 79% of the cash and 57% of the bet tickets on the UNDER

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 67% of the bet tickets and 55% of the cash is on the Blue Jays

·  The Baltimore Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 39-31 resulting in + 4.88 Units (6% ROI)

·  The Toronto Blue Jays Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 39-33 resulting in + 0.95 Units (1% ROI)

·  George Springer's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 310/-565)

Cincinnati Reds (36-36) vs. Atlanta Braves (35-38)

O/U: 10.5 | CIN -115 | ATL + 105

Tony Santillan (THE BAT's No. 192 SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

86 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

9 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  So far in 2021, Tony Santillan has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 4.70 ERA despite a 7.24 FIP

·  Josh Tomlin may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 1 best home run park in baseball (Great American Ball Park) given his fly ball tendencies (38% FB% since 2019)

·  Cincinnati boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Tyler Naquin)

·  The Braves are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.9% according to THE BAT X

·  The Braves have four players (Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr., William Contreras, Freddie Freeman) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Cincinnati Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 43-26 resulting in + 14.40 Units (18% ROI)

·  The Atlanta Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 39-27 resulting in + 6.61 Units (8% ROI)

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