MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 4 out of 296)

2. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 11)

3. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 15)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Elijah Morgan (No. 279 out of 296)

2. SEA - Justin Dunn (No. 277)

3. TOR - T.J. Zeuch (No. 260)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. ARI at SF - Phil Cuzzi (No. 4 out of 110)

2. CHC at NYM - Tripp Gibson (No. 14)

3. BAL at CLE - Mike Muchlinski (No. 36)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at COL (87 degrees)

2. STL at ATL (86 degrees)

3. CHC at NYM (77 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. NYY at TOR (68 degrees)

2. CIN at SD (71 degrees)

3. CWS at HOU (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 5.72 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 5.26 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Rockies

Projected: 10.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115

·  Yankees at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.35 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

·  Cardinals at Braves

Projected: 9.48 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  D-Backs at Giants

Projected: 7.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 105

·  Cubs at Mets

Projected: 7.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -125

·  Reds at Padres

Projected: 8.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cleveland Indians (37-28) vs. Baltimore Orioles (22-45)

O/U: 9.5 | CLE -125 | BAL + 105

Elijah Morgan (THE BAT's No. 279 SP) vs. Jorge Lopez (THE BAT's No. 185 SP)

Mike Muchlinski (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 36 in MLB)

Progressive Field (No. 6 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

74 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

6 mph in from CF (No. 4 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Eli Morgan may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 78 pitches

·  Eli Morgan (38% FB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Fly ball pitchers perform best against Ground ball hitters

·  Eli Morgan is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  The Indians (22.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Indians have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Rene Rivera, Bradley Zimmer, Bobby Bradley)

·  The Indians' 0.296 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Indians have four players (Harold Ramirez, Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez, Cesar Hernandez) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Orioles (22.4 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Orioles offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Pedro Severino, Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the Baltimore Orioles Moneyline as it opened at + 130 before dropping to + 105

·  The Game Total has moved toward the OVER after the Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 9.5 Runs

·  There is two-way action on the Moneyline as 67% of the bet tickets are on the Indians, but 56% of the cash is on the Orioles

·  The Game Total has lopsided action today with 69% of the cash and 58% of the bet tickets on the OVER

·  The most profitable market for the Cleveland Indians has been their Game Total Over which is 36-27 generating + 6.95 Units (10% ROI)

·  The Baltimore Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 34-29 resulting in + 2.17 Units (3% ROI)

·  Jose Ramirez's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 320/-595) is the most popular prop for the game

San Francisco Giants (43-25) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (20-49)

O/U: 7.5 | SF -210 | ARI + 175

Kevin Gausman (THE BAT's No. 22 SP) vs. Zac Gallen (THE BAT's No. 30 SP)

Phil Cuzzi (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 4 in MLB)

Oracle Park (No. 22 Runs | No. 27 HR | No. 11 K)

76 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

8 mph out to CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kevin Gausman (93.8 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Kevin Gausman is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  While THE BAT projects Kevin Gausman's ERA going forward to be 3.48, his actual has been 1.43 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Zac Gallen may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 61 pitches

·  Zac Gallen has been throwing a fastball (19% increase) far more often in 2021 (58% usage) than he did in 2020 (39% usage)

·  Zac Gallen is throwing a cutter 16% less often this season (8% usage) than he did last season (24% usage)

·  Zac Gallen has a reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face seven of today

·  The San Francisco Giants's 26.9 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 most on today's slate of games

·  According to THE BAT X, the Giants and their 0.321 wOBA have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in 2021

·  San Francisco boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, tied for most in MLB (Mauricio Dubon, Austin Slater, Brandon Crawford)

·  The D-Backs are the No. 4 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.2% according to THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as it opened at UNDER 7.5 Runs (-105), but has been bet down to UNDER 7.5 (-125)

·  There is reverse line movement on the D-Backs Moneyline as it has dropped from + 185 to + 175 despite only getting 7% of the cash

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 68% of the bet tickets and 93% of the cash is on the Giants

·  The Game Total has two-way action as 66% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 34% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Giants Run Line has 66% of the bet tickets and 84% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The San Francisco Giants Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 44-24 resulting in + 24.70 Units (29% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Arizona Diamondbacks has been their Game Total Over which is 37-31 generating + 2.70 Units (4% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Kevin Gausman's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)

Seattle Mariners (34-36) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (43-26)

O/U: 8.5 | SEA + 150 | TB -165

Justin Dunn (THE BAT's No. 277 SP) vs. Rich Hill (THE BAT's No. 147 SP)

T-Mobile Park (No. 26 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

74 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

8 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Justin Dunn (93.1 mph) has added 2.5 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Justin Dunn has added 108 rpm of spin to his fastball (2348 rpm) in 2021

·  Justin Dunn may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 9 best home run park in baseball (T-Mobile Park) given his fly ball tendencies (44% FB% since 2019)

·  Justin Dunn has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.91 ERA is 0.97 points below his 4.88 FIP

·  Rich Hill (88.0 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  The Mariners offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Dylan Moore, Mitch Haniger, Tom Murphy, Kyle Seager)

·  The Rays (26.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Rays offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 7 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Austin Meadows, Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 80% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets is on the Rays

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 82% of the cash and 55% of the bet tickets is on the OVER

·  The most profitable market for the Tampa Bay Rays has been their Run Line which is 46-23 generating + 23.20 Units (25% ROI)

·  The Seattle Mariners Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 34-36 resulting in + 5.60 Units (8% ROI)

·  Justin Dunn's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165/+ 125) is the most popular prop for the game

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