MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 5 out of 298)

2. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 7)

3. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 15)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. COL - Chi Chi Gonzalez (No. 261 out of 298)

2. DET - Tyler Alexander (No. 260)

3. PIT - Mitch Keller (No. 199)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. COL at MIA - Ben May (No. 7 out of 110)

2. TOR at CWS - Dan Bellino (No. 13)

3. ATL at PHI - Tony Randazzo (No. 27)

Today's Hottest Games

1. NYY at MIN (94 degrees)

2. SEA at DET (82 degrees)

3. ATL at PHI (81 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. KC at OAK (56 degrees)

2. HOU at BOS (64 degrees)

3. COL at MIA (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 4.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -145

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Yankees at Twins

Projected: 11.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -105

·  Astros at Red Sox

Projected: 9.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -110

·  Mariners at Tigers

Projected: 9.09 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Marlins

Projected: 7.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Royals at Athletics

Projected: 7.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

·  Braves at Phillies

Projected: 7.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Pittsburgh Pirates (23-37) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (36-25)

O/U: 8.5 | PIT + 190 | LAD -230

Mitch Keller (THE BAT's No. 199 SP) vs. Julio Urias (THE BAT's No. 36 SP)

PNC Park (No. 21 Runs | No. 26 HR | No. 25 K)

79 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

5 mph in from LF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Mitch Keller may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 83 pitches

·  Mitch Keller is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his reverse platoon split

·  Julio Urias's curveball usage (32% in 2021, 22% in 2020) has increased 10% this season

·  Julio Urias has a reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face seven of today

·  The Pirates are the No. 2 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.4% according to THE BAT X

·  The Dodgers are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.4% according to THE BAT X

·  The Dodgers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.322 wOBA going forward

·  The Dodgers have 3 players (Chris Taylor, Albert Pujols, Justin Turner) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  The Run Line has the most lopsided action today with 97% of the bet tickets and 79% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 76% of the bet tickets and 76% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  The most profitable market for the Pittsburgh Pirates has been their Team Total Under which is 34-24 generating + 5.93 Units (9% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Dodgers has been their Game Total Over which is 32-28 generating + 2.00 Units (3% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Max Muncy's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 325/-605)

Cincinnati Reds (29-30) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (34-27)

O/U: 8.5 | CIN + 100 | MIL -120

Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 41 SP) vs. Freddy Peralta (THE BAT's No. 15 SP)

Dan Merzel (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 30 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

79 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

3 mph in from RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Luis Castillo's fastball (95.9 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Luis Castillo has added nearly 100 rpm of spin to his fastball (2279 rpm) in 2021

·  Luis Castillo's ability to keep the ball on the ground (55% GB% since 2019) should help him in Great American Ball Park (No. 1 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Groundball pitchers tend to perform better against Flyball hitters, and Luis Castillo (55% GB% since 2019) is projected to face 3 of them today

·  While THE BAT projects Freddy Peralta's ERA going forward to be 3.31, his actual has been 2.32 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  The Reds (25.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Reds and their 0.326 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

·  Cincinnati boasts 4 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Tyler Naquin, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker)

·  The Milwaukee Brewers's 26.9 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 most on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X projects the Brewers (No. 3 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.294 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Brewers offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez, Willy Adames)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 65% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets is on the Brewers

·  The most profitable market for the Cincinnati Reds has been their Game Total Over which is 34-22 generating + 9.65 Units (15% ROI)

·  The Milwaukee Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 33-28 resulting in + 4.30 Units (5% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Christian Yelich's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 310/-560)

Detroit Tigers (25-36) vs. Seattle Mariners (31-32)

O/U: 9 | DET -110 | SEA -110

Tyler Alexander (THE BAT's No. 260 SP) vs. Justus Sheffield (THE BAT's No. 185 SP)

Comerica Park (No. 16 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

82 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

8 mph in from LF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tyler Alexander may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 61 pitches

·  Justus Sheffield has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 9 opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Detroit Tigers' 26.1 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 most on today's slate of games

·  The Tigers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Akil Baddoo, Robbie Grossman, Niko Goodrum)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most profitable market for the Detroit Tigers has been their Game Total Under which is 36-23 generating + 10.75 Units (16% ROI)

·  This season the Mariners Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 31-32 resulting in + 5.20 Units (8% ROI)

·  Justus Sheffield's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)

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