MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 12 out of 336)

2. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 23)

3. OAK - Sean Manaea (No. 32)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Matt Moore (No. 313 out of 336)

2. DET - Tyler Alexander (No. 285)

3. TEX - Mike Foltynewicz (No. 267)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TEX at DET - Ron Kulpa (No. 3 out of 110)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SF at LAD - Andy Fletcher (No. 35 out of 110)

2. CHC at STL - Manny Gonzalez (No. 44)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CHC at STL (88 degrees)

2. LAA at MIN (86 degrees)

3. ATL at PHI (79 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SD at MIA (72 degrees)

2. OAK at SEA (73 degrees)

3. TB at CLE (74 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 5.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.03 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.56 runs

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Angels at Twins

Projected: 10.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Yankees at Red Sox

Projected: 9.80 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  Rays at Indians

Projected: 9.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Marlins

Projected: 8.10 runs

·  Athletics at Mariners

Projected: 8.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Giants at Dodgers

Projected: 8.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Detroit Tigers (46-51) vs. Texas Rangers (35-61)

O/U: 9.5 | DET -140 | TEX + 120

Tyler Alexander (THE BAT's No. 285 SP) vs. Mike Foltynewicz (THE BAT's No. 267 SP)

Ron Kulpa (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 3 in MLB)

Comerica Park (No. 21 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

75 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

3 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tyler Alexander may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 63 pitches

·  Tyler Alexander has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  Tyler Alexander's 4.40 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 5.07 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Tigers (26.9 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Tigers (0.305 wOBA) have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Texas Rangers' 25.2 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 5 most on today's slate of games

·  The Rangers have four players (Eli White, Adolis Garcia, Charlie Culberson, Nick Solak) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the Detroit Tigers Moneyline as it opened at -120 before dropping to -140

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 98% of the cash and 58% of the bet tickets is on the Tigers

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 68% of the cash and 56% of the bet tickets is on the Tigers

·  Joey Gallo's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 260/-430) is the most popular prop for the game

St. Louis Cardinals (48-48) vs. Chicago Cubs (47-49)

O/U: 8.5 | STL -125 | CHC + 105

Kwang-hyun Kim (THE BAT's No. 171 SP) vs. Adbert Alzolay (THE BAT's No. 147 SP)

Manny Gonzalez (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 44 in MLB)

Busch Stadium (No. 25 Runs | No. 24 HR | No. 27 K)

88 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Kwang Hyun Kim's fastball (88.4 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Kwang Hyun Kim is projected to face eight opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his huge platoon split

·  Kwang Hyun Kim's 2.87 ERA is 0.94 points better than his 3.81 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Cardinals' 0.296 team wOBA makes them the second-largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  St. Louis boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Paul DeJong, Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson)

·  The Cubs (27.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Strikeouts against Chicago may be easy to come by today, as five players (Ian Happ, Javier Baez, Adbert Alzolay, Jake Marisnick, Patrick Wisdom) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Cubs have four players (Jason Heyward, Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  The Cubs Moneyline has 12% of the cash, but the it's dropped from + 110 to + 105 resulting in reverse line movement

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 88% of the cash and 54% of the bet tickets on the Cardinals

·  Kwang Hyun Kim's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+ 100)

Seattle Mariners (51-45) vs. Oakland Athletics (55-42)

O/U: 7.5 | SEA + 125 | OAK -145

Chris Flexen (THE BAT's No. 179 SP) vs. Sean Manaea (THE BAT's No. 32 SP)

T-Mobile Park (No. 27 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

73 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Chris Flexen and his 3.35 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.56 thus far in 2021

·  Thus far in 2021, Sean Manaea's fastball (91.2 mph) has been 1.6 mph faster than it was last season

·  Sean Manaea is throwing a fastball 54% less often this season (0% usage) than he did last season (54% usage)

·  Sean Manaea has been throwing a sinker (60% increase) far more often in 2021 (60% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Seattle boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Kyle Seager, Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy, Mitch Haniger)

·  The Athletics (23.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Athletics offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the second-most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Sean Murphy, Matt Chapman, Ramon Laureano, Seth Brown, Matt Olson)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total UNDER opened at 8.0 Runs (-110), but is now UNDER 7.5 (-105) and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  The opening Moneyline for the Athletics was -130, but is now -145 after it steamed 15 cents

·  The Athletics Moneyline has 68% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  Matt Olson's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 225/-345)

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