MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 336)

2. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2)

3. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 7)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 294 out of 336)

2. KC - Kris Bubic (No. 232)

3. SF - Johnny Cueto (No. 194)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TEX at OAK - Jeremy Riggs (No. 4 out of 110)

2. SD at CIN - Tripp Gibson (No. 12)

3. SEA at TOR - Ryan Additon (No. 24)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. LAA at NYY - Andy Fletcher (No. 18 out of 110)

2. NYM at ATL - Ramon De Jesus (No. 25)

Today's Hottest Games

1. LAA at NYY (84 degrees)

2. NYM at ATL (81 degrees)

3. SF at ARI (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. TEX at OAK (64 degrees)

2. MIN at CWS (70 degrees)

3. HOU at CLE (71 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.80 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.79 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 3.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Royals at Red Sox

Projected: 10.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

·  Angels at Yankees

Projected: 10.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -120

·  Cardinals at Rockies

Projected: 10.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rangers at Athletics

Projected: 7.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Marlins at Phillies

Projected: 7.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -120

·  Mets at Braves

Projected: 7.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Toronto Blue Jays (41-37) vs. Seattle Mariners (42-39)

O/U: 9.5 | TOR -200 | SEA + 170

Hyun-Jin Ryu (THE BAT's No. 32 SP) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (THE BAT's No. 132 SP)

Ryan Additon (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 24 in MLB)

Sahlen Field

76 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

6 mph out to LF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Hyun Jin Ryu's spin rate (1921 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Fly ball hitters, and Hyun Jin Ryu (52% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  So far in 2021, Hyun Jin Ryu has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.41 ERA despite a 3.97 FIP

·  The spin rate on Yusei Kikuchi's fastball (2311 rpm) has increased by 133 rpm in 2021

·  Yusei Kikuchi is projected to face eight opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  The Blue Jays have four players (Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Seattle Mariners's 25.7 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 5 most on today's slate of games

·  The Mariners offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 6 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Dylan Moore, Tom Murphy, Kyle Seager)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 80% of the bet tickets and 89% of the cash on the Blue Jays

·  The Seattle Mariners Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 42-39 resulting in + 14.30 Units (17% ROI)

·  The Toronto Blue Jays Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 43-35 resulting in + 2.10 Units (2% ROI)

·  Vladimir Guerrero Jr's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 330/-615)

Boston Red Sox (50-31) vs. Kansas City Royals (33-46)

O/U: 10 | BOS -240 | KC + 200

Nathan Eovaldi (THE BAT's No. 49 SP) vs. Kris Bubic (THE BAT's No. 232 SP)

Tony Randazzo (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 28 in MLB)

Fenway Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 16 HR | No. 18 K)

77 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

6 mph out to RF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Nathan Eovaldi has been throwing a slider (13% increase) far more often in 2021 (13% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Nathan Eovaldi is throwing a cutter 16% less often this season (15% usage) than he did last season (31% usage)

·  Nathan Eovaldi has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  Kris Bubic may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 69 pitches

·  This season, Kris Bubic's fastball (89.7 mph) has been 1.2 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Kris Bubic's spin rate (2032 rpm) has decreased by 148 rpm in 2021

·  Kris Bubic's 4.47 ERA is 1.01 points better than his 5.48 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Boston Red Sox's 22.2 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 least on today's slate of games

·  According to THE BAT X, the Red Sox and their 0.327 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Red Sox have four players (J.D. Martinez, Hunter Renfroe, Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Royals have four players (Hunter Dozier, Michael A. Taylor, Whit Merrifield, Nicky Lopez) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 82% of the bet tickets and 68% of the cash on the Red Sox

·  This season the Red Sox Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 50-31 resulting in + 13.40 Units (13% ROI)

·  The Kansas City Royals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 41-35 resulting in + 3.74 Units (4% ROI)

·  Nathan Eovaldi's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 105/-140) is the most popular prop for the game

Cincinnati Reds (39-40) vs. San Diego Padres (49-33)

O/U: 9.0 | CIN -125 | SD + 105

Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 23 SP) vs. Ryan Weathers (THE BAT's No. 180 SP)

Tripp Gibson (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 12 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

77 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

4 mph out to CF (No. 5 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Luis Castillo's fastball spin rate (2293 rpm) has jumped 105 rpm since 2020

·  Luis Castillo's ability to keep the ball on the ground (56% GB% since 2019) should help him in Great American Ball Park (No. 1 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Fly ball hitters, Luis Castillo (56% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with four Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Ryan Weathers's huge platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  So far in 2021, Ryan Weathers has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 2.47 ERA despite a 4.30 FIP

·  The Reds offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 6 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto)

·  San Diego boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr., Victor Caratini, Ha-seong Kim, Manny Machado)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Reds Moneyline opened at -105, but is now -125 and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The Moneyline has two-way action as 59% of the bet tickets are on the Padres, but 57% of the cash is on the Reds

·  The most profitable market for the Cincinnati Reds has been their Game Total Over which is 45-31 generating + 10.80 Units (12% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the San Diego Padres has been their Game Total Over which is 44-36 generating + 5.15 Units (6% ROI)

·  Luis Castillo's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+ 125/-165)

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