MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Thursday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 3 out of 339)

2. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 4)

3. CIN - Luis Castillo (No. 19)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. STL - Jon Lester (No. 319 out of 339)

2. DET - Matt Manning (No. 244)

3. MIN - John Gant (No. 234)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. HOU at KC - Will Little (No. 34 out of 111)

2. SEA at TEX - D.J. Reyburn (No. 39)

3. OAK at CWS - Bruce Dreckman (No. 40)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. BAL at TB - James Hoye (No. 18 out of 111)

2. MIL at STL - Alan Porter (No. 29)

Today's Hottest Games

1. HOU at KC (85 degrees)

2. MIL at STL (85 degrees)

3. MIA at CIN (83 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SEA at TEX (70 degrees)

2. NYM at LAD (72 degrees)

3. BAL at TB (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.50 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 120

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 5.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -150

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 3.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at Yankees

Projected: 11.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O + 100

·  Athletics at White Sox

Projected: 10.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

·  Mets at Dodgers

Projected: 9.52 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Cardinals

Projected: 8.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Phillies at D-Backs

Projected: 8.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Mariners at Rangers

Projected: 8.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Detroit Tigers (58-64) vs. Los Angeles Angels (61-61)

O/U: 9.5 | DET -105 | LAA -115

Matt Manning (THE BAT's No. 244 SP) vs. Jose Quintana (THE BAT's No. 76 SP)

Comerica Park (No. 22 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

83 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

4 mph out to RF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jose Quintana may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 74 pitches

·  THE BAT X views the Tigers as the No. 4 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Tigers have four players (Willi Castro, Jonathan Schoop, Miguel Cabrera, Eric Haase) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Los Angeles Angels' 25.5 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 most on today's slate of games

·  The projected lineup for the Angels holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell, Max Stassi. THE BAT projects all for a Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell, Max Stassi+ underlying K%

·  The Angels offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Phil Gosselin, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 9.5 Runs

·  There is reverse line movement as only 35% of the cash is on the Los Angeles Angels, but their Moneyline has dropped from -110 to -115

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 65% of the cash and 58% of the bet tickets on the Tigers

·  The most profitable market for the Detroit Tigers has been their Moneyline which is 58-64 generating + 11.15 Units (9% ROI)

·  The Los Angeles Angels Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 66-54 resulting in + 5.90 Units (4% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Shohei Ohtani's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 265/-440)

Texas Rangers (42-78) vs. Seattle Mariners (65-56)

O/U: 8.5 | TEX + 125 | SEA -145

Spencer Howard (THE BAT's No. 159 SP) vs. Chris Flexen (THE BAT's No. 200 SP)

D.J. Reyburn (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 39 in MLB)

Globe Life Field (No. 19 Runs | No. 18 HR | No. 21 K)

70 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Spencer Howard may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 65 pitches

·  Spencer Howard's fastball (2149 rpm) has lost 196 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Spencer Howard is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his reverse platoon split

·  Chris Flexen's 3.78 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.72 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Mariners (22.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Mariners offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Kyle Seager, Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy, Mitch Haniger)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Rangers Moneyline has 26% of the cash, but the it's dropped from + 140 to + 125 resulting in reverse line movement

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 83% of the bet tickets and 80% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 74% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets on the Mariners

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 66% of the bet tickets and 62% of the cash is on the Mariners

·  The Seattle Mariners Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 65-56 resulting in + 22.05 Units (17% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Spencer Howard's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+ 110/-145)

New York Yankees (69-52) vs. Minnesota Twins (54-67)

O/U: 10.5 | NYY -255 | MIN + 215

Jameson Taillon (THE BAT's No. 55 SP) vs. John Gant (THE BAT's No. 234 SP)

Yankee Stadium (No. 10 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

83 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

10 mph out to CF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  John Gant may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 76 pitches

·  So far in 2021, John Gant has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.49 ERA despite a 4.87 FIP

·  The Yankees are the No. 3 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.6% according to THE BAT X

·  The Yankees' 0.316 team wOBA makes them the No. 1 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  New York boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Gary Sanchez)

·  Strikeouts against Minnesota may be easy to come by today, as four players (Jake Cave, Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver, Brent Rooker) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 74% of the bet tickets and 55% of the cash is on the Yankees

·  This season the Twins Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 69-46 resulting in + 18.65 Units (14% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the New York Yankees has been their Team Total Under which is 69-47 generating + 18.61 Units (14% ROI)

·  Josh Donaldson's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 215/-335)

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