MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 10 out of 300)

2. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 11)

3. MIN - Jose Berrios (No. 22)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Bruce Zimmermann (No. 286 out of 300)

2. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 277)

3. ARI - Merrill Kelly (No. 252)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. KC at MIN - Phil Cuzzi (No. 3 out of 117)

2. CLE at CWS - Tripp Gibson (No. 9)

3. SF at SD - CB Bucknor (No. 13)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. MIA at WSH - Mark Wegner (No. 6 out of 117)

2. LAA at SEA - Carlos Torres (No. 14)

3. COL at ARI - John Libka (No. 24)

Today's Hottest Games

1. ATL at TOR (84 degrees)

2. NYM at PHI (80 degrees)

3. COL at ARI (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAA at SEA (56 degrees)

2. SF at SD (63 degrees)

3. BAL at OAK (67 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 6.32 runs

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.85 runs

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.38 runs

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 3.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -120

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 3.63 runs

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Blue Jays

Projected: 12.17 runs

·  Mets at Phillies

Projected: 10.43 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O 100

·  Tigers at Yankees

Projected: 10.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Giants at Padres

Projected: 7.35 runs

·  Marlins at Nationals

Projected: 8.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -115

·  Indians at White Sox

Projected: 8.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Toronto Blue Jays (13-12) vs. Atlanta Braves (12-15)

O/U | TOR | ATL

Ross Stripling (THE BAT's No. 160 SP) vs. Ian Anderson (THE BAT's No. 34 SP)

Paul Clemons (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 44 in MLB)

TD Ballpark (No. 5 Runs | No. 5 HR | No. 7 K)

84 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

13 mph across the field

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Ross Stripling may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 85 pitches

·  Ross Stripling has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face 6 of today

·  Ross Stripling's spin rate (2150 rpm) has decreased by 125 rpm in 2021

·  Ross Stripling is throwing a slider 15% more often this season (27% usage) than he did last season (12% usage)

·  Ian Anderson has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face 7 of today

·  Ian Anderson has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.48 ERA is 1.17 points below his 3.65 FIP

·  The Blue Jays (22.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Blue Jays have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the #3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.307 wOBA going forward

·  The Braves have 4 players (Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #3 most in MLB

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Atlanta Braves Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and are 17-9 to generate 6.65 Units (22% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Ian Anderson's Strikeouts Prop which is currently at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-100/-130)

 

 

Seattle Mariners (15-13) vs. Los Angeles Angels (13-12)

 

8.0 O/U | SEA 130 | LAA -150

 

Justus Sheffield (THE BAT's No. 145 SP) vs. Dylan Bundy (THE BAT's No. 64 SP)

Carlos Torres (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 14 in MLB)

T-Mobile Park (No. 24 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

56 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

3 mph across the field

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Dylan Bundy (91.4 mph) has added 2.0 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Dylan Bundy's fastball spin rate (2546 rpm) has jumped 124 rpm since 2020

·  Justus Sheffield has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Angels (20.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Angels and their 0.324 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Angels have four players (Albert Pujols, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Mike Trout) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 most in MLB

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This game has the most lopsided Run Line today as 87% of the bet tickets and 87% of the cash thus far is on the Los Angeles Angels

·  There is two-way action on the Moneyline as 74% of the bet tickets are on the Angels, but 84% of the cash is on the Mariners

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total with 68% of the bet tickets and 86% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Seattle Mariners Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and are 19-9 to generate 8.15 Units (22% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Dylan Bundy's Strikeouts Prop which is currently at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)

·  We're seeing line movement on the Game Total as it opened at 8.5 Runs, but sharp action has bet the UNDER to 8.0 Runs

 

Philadelphia Phillies (13-14) vs. New York Mets (10-11)

 

9.0 O/U | PHI -110 | NYM -110

 

Zach Eflin (THE BAT's No. 86 SP) vs. David Peterson (THE BAT's No. 93 SP)

Andy Fletcher (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 35 in MLB)

Citizens Bank Park (No. 14 Runs | No. 4 HR | No. 12 K)

80 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

12 mph out to RF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zach Eflin (91.4 mph) has lost 1.6 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Zach Eflin has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 3.58 ERA despite a 2.92 FIP

·  Citizens Bank Park is baseball's sixth-best park for home runs, but David Peterson's groundball-heavy skillset (48% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  David Peterson is throwing a fastball 17% less often this season (13% usage) than he did last season (30% usage)

·  David Peterson is throwing a sinker 20% more often this season (44% usage) than he did last season (24% usage)

·  David Peterson has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Phillies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the fourth-unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.294 wOBA going forward

·  The Mets have three players (Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 most in MLB

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 79% of the bet tickets are on the OVER, but 71% of the cash is on the UNDER

·  There is two-way action on the Moneyline as 68% of the bet tickets are on the Phillies, but 56% of the cash is on the Mets

·  The New York Mets Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and are 11-5 to generate 6.01 Units (32% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Bryce Harper's Total Bases Prop which is currently at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases ( 115/-150)

·  We're seeing line movement on the Game Total as it opened at 8.5 Runs, but sharp action has bet the OVER to 9.0 Runs

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