MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 4 out of 346)

2. LAD - Clayton Kershaw (No. 8)

3. LAA - Shohei Ohtani (No. 21)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CHC - Adrian Sampson (No. 338 out of 346)

2. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 299)

3. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 289)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. BAL at BOS - Doug Eddings (No. 3 out of 111)

2. LAD at CIN - Ryan Blakney (No. 16)

3. MIN at TOR - Ryan Additon (No. 25)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CWS at TEX - Mark Wegner (No. 5 out of 111)

2. PHI at NYM - Chad Fairchild (No. 16)

3. PIT at MIA - Adrian Johnson (No. 35)

Today's Hottest Games

1. LAD at CIN (86 degrees)

2. SEA at KC (85 degrees)

3. SD at STL (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. ATL at SF (61 degrees)

2. MIN at TOR (66 degrees)

3. BAL at BOS (69 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 110

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.77 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -115

·  Cleveland Indians

Projected: 3.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -145

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Orioles at Red Sox

Projected: 10.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

·  Mariners at Royals

Projected: 9.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

·  Twins at Blue Jays

Projected: 9.40 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Pirates at Marlins

Projected: 6.77 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -115

·  Phillies at Mets

Projected: 8.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  Braves at Giants

Projected: 8.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

New York Yankees (83-66) vs. Cleveland Indians (72-74)

O/U: 8.5 | NYY -300 | CLE + 250

Gerrit Cole (THE BAT's No. 4 SP) vs. Eli Morgan (THE BAT's No. 252 SP)

Pat Hoberg (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 41 in MLB)

Yankee Stadium (No. 12 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

75 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

9 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Gerrit Cole's fastball (97.0 mph) has been nearly a full mph faster than it was last season

·  Gerrit Cole is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his reverse platoon split

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (45% FB% since 2019), Eli Morgan may not be a great fit for the No. 4 HR in baseball, Yankee Stadium, today

·  Eli Morgan has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face seven of today

·  The Yankees have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.317 wOBA going forward

·  The Yankees have four players (Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Indians are the No. 3 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 27.3% according to THE BAT X

·  Strikeouts against Cleveland may be easy to come by today, as four players (Bobby Bradley, Bradley Zimmer, Franmil Reyes, Roberto Perez) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Indians have four players (Bradley Zimmer, Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes, Harold Ramirez) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 98% of the cash and 58% of the bet tickets is on the Yankees

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 68% of the bet tickets and 74% of the cash on the Yankees

·  The most profitable market for the New York Yankees has been their Team Total Under which is 83-61 generating + 16.68 Units (10% ROI)

·  The Cleveland Indians Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 78-67 resulting in + 6.90 Units (4% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Aaron Judge's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 275/-465)

Cincinnati Reds (77-72) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (95-54)

O/U: 9.0 | CIN + 170 | LAD -200

Wade Miley (THE BAT's No. 134 SP) vs. Clayton Kershaw (THE BAT's No. 8 SP)

Ryan Blakney (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 16 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

86 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

5 mph in from CF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  So far in 2021, Wade Miley has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.09 ERA despite a 3.78 FIP

·  Clayton Kershaw may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 65 pitches

·  Clayton Kershaw's fastball velocity (90.1 mph) has been down nearly a full mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  Clayton Kershaw is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  The Reds' 0.325 team wOBA makes them the No. 7 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Reds have three players (Joey Votto, Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Dodgers (21.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Dodgers' 0.324 team wOBA makes them the No. 1 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Will Smith)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the OVER after the Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The Dodgers Run Line opening price of -1.5 (-110) has steamed 15 cents and is now -1.5 (-125)

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 85% of the bet tickets and 72% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 67% of the bet tickets and 87% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The Los Angeles Dodgers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 74-62 resulting in + 6.15 Units (4% ROI)

·  Mookie Betts' Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 305/-545)

St. Louis Cardinals (78-69) vs. San Diego Padres (76-72)

O/U: 9.5 | STL -115 | SD -105

J.A. Happ (THE BAT's No. 251 SP) vs. Jake Arrieta (THE BAT's No. 268 SP)

Cory Blaser (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 26 in MLB)

Busch Stadium (No. 27 Runs | No. 24 HR | No. 27 K)

84 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

10 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  J.A. Happ has been throwing a fastball (11% increase) far more often in 2021 (55% usage) than he did in 2020 (44% usage)

·  J.A. Happ has a huge platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  Jake Arrieta may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 83 pitches

·  Jake Arrieta has been throwing a changeup (10% increase) far less often in 2021 (7% usage) than he did in 2020 (17% usage)

·  THE BAT X views the Cardinals as the No. 6 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Cardinals offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong)

·  The Padres are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.6% according to THE BAT X

·  San Diego boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 1 most in MLB (Wil Myers, Fernando Tatis Jr., Trent Grisham, Ha-seong Kim, Jake Cronenworth)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement as only 43% of the cash is on the San Diego Padres, but their Moneyline has dropped from + 110 to -105

·  The Game Total has moved toward the OVER after the Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 9.5 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 76% of the bet tickets and 96% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The most profitable market for the San Diego Padres has been their Team Total Under which is 79-63 generating + 9.28 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the St. Louis Cardinals has been their Team Total Under which is 77-62 generating + 8.92 Units (6% ROI)

·  Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 215/-330) is the most popular prop for the game

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