MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. LAD - Max Scherzer (No. 5 out of 343)

2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 11)

3. SF - Logan Webb (No. 14)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. ARI - Tyler Gilbert (No. 282 out of 343)

2. COL - Ryan Feltner (No. 271)

3. STL - J.A. Happ (No. 262)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. ARI at SEA - Ron Kulpa (No. 2 out of 111)

2. TEX at OAK - Bill Miller (No. 3)

3. BOS at CWS - Roberto Ortiz (No. 5)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CIN at STL - Edwin Moscoso (No. 1 out of 111)

2. COL at PHI - John Libka (No. 8)

3. MIA at ATL - Nic Lentz (No. 11)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SD at LAD (89 degrees)

2. CIN at STL (87 degrees)

3. BOS at CWS (85 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. ARI at SEA (62 degrees)

2. KC at MIN (68 degrees)

3. TEX at OAK (70 degrees)

 

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 6.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -105

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -100

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 5.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -140

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.35 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.35 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Blue Jays at Orioles

Projected: 10.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -110

·  Red Sox at White Sox

Projected: 9.99 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

·  Brewers at Indians

Projected: 9.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  D-Backs at Mariners

Projected: 7.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

·  Rangers at Athletics

Projected: 8.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -120

·  Marlins at Braves

Projected: 8.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Detroit Tigers (67-76) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (89-53)

O/U: 9.0 | DET + 130 | TB -150

Tarik Skubal (THE BAT's No. 132 SP) vs. Luis Patino (THE BAT's No. 107 SP)

Comerica Park (No. 22 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

79 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

11 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  The spin on Tarik Skubal's fastball (2193 rpm) has been 229 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Tarik Skubal has been throwing a fastball (18% increase) far less often in 2021 (43% usage) than he did in 2020 (61% usage)

·  Tarik Skubal has been throwing a sinker (13% increase) far more often in 2021 (13% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Tarik Skubal has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  Tarik Skubal has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.30 ERA is 0.72 points below his 5.02 FIP

·  Luis Patino's skillset (42% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Comerica Park (No. 6 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Tigers and their 0.308 wOBA have been the No. 1 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Tampa Bay Rays's 22.3 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 5 least on today's slate of games

·  According to THE BAT X, the Rays and their 0.322 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Rays offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 6 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Mike Zunino, Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Rays Moneyline has 69% of the bet tickets and 92% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 83% of the cash and 62% of the bet tickets on the Rays

·  This season the Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 82-57 resulting in + 22.30 Units (12% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Detroit Tigers has been their Moneyline which is 67-73 generating + 17.60 Units (12% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Nelson Cruz's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 355/-700)

St. Louis Cardinals (72-69) vs. Cincinnati Reds (75-68)

O/U: 9.0 | STL + 105 | CIN -125

J.A. Happ (THE BAT's No. 262 SP) vs. Sonny Gray (THE BAT's No. 33 SP)

Edwin Moscoso (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 1 in MLB)

Busch Stadium (No. 26 Runs | No. 24 HR | No. 27 K)

87 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

11 mph out to LF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  J.A. Happ's fastball usage (56% in 2021, 44% in 2020) has increased 12% this season

·  J.A. Happ has a huge platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against eight opposite-handed hitters today

·  Sonny Gray's spin rate (2417 rpm) has decreased by 104 rpm in 2021

·  Sonny Gray (51% GB% since 2019) projects to face three Fly ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Ground ball pitchers perform worst against Fly ball hitters

·  THE BAT X views the Cardinals as the No. 5 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  St. Louis boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB (Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong)

·  The Reds have three players (Joey Votto, Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the OVER after the Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The opening Moneyline for the Cardinals was + 120, but is now + 105 after it steamed 15 cents

·  The St. Louis Cardinals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 75-58 resulting in + 11.32 Units (7% ROI)

·  The Cincinnati Reds Team Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 75-61 resulting in + 3.32 Units (2% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Nick Castellanos's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 300/-535)

Oakland Athletics (77-65) vs. Texas Rangers (52-89)

O/U: 8.0 | OAK -200 | TEX + 170

James Kaprielian (THE BAT's No. 140 SP) vs. Taylor Hearn (THE BAT's No. 206 SP)

Bill Miller (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 3 in MLB)

Oakland Coliseum (No. 30 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)

70 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

7 mph out to RF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  James Kaprielian's fly ball nature (44% FB% since 2019) should play well in Oakland Coliseum (No. 8 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Ground ball hitters, and James Kaprielian (44% FB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  So far in 2021, James Kaprielian has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.81 ERA despite a 4.62 FIP

·  The Oakland Athletics's 20.5 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 least on today's slate of games

·  Oakland boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman, Josh Harrison, Tony Kemp)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs, but is now 8.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 82% of the bet tickets and 59% of the cash is on the Athletics

·  The Athletics Run Line has 68% of the bet tickets and 52% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Oakland Athletics Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 74-67 resulting in + 8.45 Units (5% ROI)

·  Matt Olson's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 330/-625)

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