MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 345)

2. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 10)

3. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 14)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. STL - Jon Lester (No. 326 out of 345)

2. LAA - Janson Junk (No. 315)

3. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 294)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. MIN at TB - Jim Wolf (No. 12 out of 111)

2. CWS at KC - Brennan Miller (No. 17)

3. NYM at WSH - Ryan Wills (No. 25)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. BAL at NYY - Jeff Nelson (No. 17 out of 111)

2. PHI at MIA - Adam Beck (No. 29)

3. TEX at LAA - Adrian Johnson (No. 35)

Today's Hottest Games

1. TEX at LAA (90 degrees)

2. ATL at COL (86 degrees)

3. HOU at SD (80 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. OAK at TOR (66 degrees)

2. LAD at SF (68 degrees)

3. CLE at BOS (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 6.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -105

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.50 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 115

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 5.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Rockies

Projected: 12.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -105

·  Orioles at Yankees

Projected: 10.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -120

·  Indians at Red Sox

Projected: 10.50 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Marlins

Projected: 7.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O + 100

·  White Sox at Royals

Projected: 8.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

·  Cardinals at Brewers

Projected: 8.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Toronto Blue Jays (72-62) vs. Oakland Athletics (74-62)

O/U: 9.5 | TOR -225 | OAK + 185

Robbie Ray (THE BAT's No. 76 SP) vs. Cole Irvin (THE BAT's No. 198 SP)

Rogers Centre

66 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

12 mph in from LF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Robbie Ray's fastball (94.3 mph) has been nearly a full mph faster than it was last season

·  The spin on Robbie Ray's fastball (2266 rpm) has been 154 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Robbie Ray is throwing a fastball 10% more often this season (59% usage) than he did last season (49% usage)

·  Robbie Ray's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face eight of them today

·  While THE BAT projects Cole Irvin's ERA going forward to be 4.72, his actual has been 3.75 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  The Blue Jays are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 20.9% according to THE BAT X

·  The Blue Jays offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette)

·  The Athletics (21.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Athletics offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Matt Chapman, Josh Harrison, Tony Kemp, Jed Lowrie)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline opening price of -190 has steamed 35 cents and is now -225

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 9.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  The Blue Jays Run Line has 86% of the cash and 56% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most popular prop for the game is Matt Olson's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 325/-600)

Cincinnati Reds (73-64) vs. Detroit Tigers (64-73)

O/U: 8.5 | CIN -235 | DET + 195

Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 23 SP) vs. Casey Mize (THE BAT's No. 192 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

73 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

7 mph out to CF (No. 7 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  The spin rate on Luis Castillo's fastball (2320 rpm) has increased by 132 rpm in 2021

·  Great American Ball Park is baseball's No. 1 best park for home runs, but Luis Castillo's ground ball-heavy skillset (56% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Luis Castillo (56% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  Great American Ball Park is baseball's No. 1 best park for home runs, but Casey Mize's ground ball-heavy skillset (48% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  So far in 2021, Casey Mize has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.59 ERA despite a 4.98 FIP

·  The Tigers are the most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 29.1% according to THE BAT X

·  Strikeouts against Detroit may be easy to come by today, as three players (Niko Goodrum, Eric Haase, Casey Mize) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Tigers as the No. 2 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  Detroit boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Miguel Cabrera, Eric Haase, Willi Castro, Jonathan Schoop)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Reds was -210, but is now -235 after it steamed 25 cents

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 69% of the bet tickets and 75% of the cash is on the Reds

·  The Reds Run Line has 73% of the bet tickets and 58% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most popular prop for the game is Nick Castellanos' Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 330/-615)

San Diego Padres (72-64) vs. Houston Astros (79-56)

O/U: 8.5 | SD -110 | HOU -110

Chris Paddack (THE BAT's No. 79 SP) vs. Luis Garcia (THE BAT's No. 84 SP)

Petco Park (No. 24 Runs | No. 20 HR | No. 10 K)

80 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

8 mph out to RF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Chris Paddack (94.2 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Chris Paddack's large reverse platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  Despite a 3.63 FIP, Chris Paddack's unlucky ERA has been 1.35 points worse at 4.98

·  The Padres have five players (Tommy Pham, Victor Caratini, Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr.) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Astros are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.0% according to THE BAT X

·  The Astros (0.334 wOBA) have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  There is reverse line movement on the Padres Moneyline as it's dropped from + 100 to -110 despite only getting 28% of the cash

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 66% of the bet tickets and 72% of the cash is on the Astros

·  Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 205/-310) is the most popular prop for the game

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