MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 297)

2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 11)

3. LAD - Trevor Bauer (No. 15)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. ARI - Riley Smith (No. 236 out of 297)

2. MIL - Brett Anderson (No. 224)

3. SF - Johnny Cueto (No. 213)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. SEA at TEX - Phil Cuzzi (No. 3 out of 110)

2. TOR at HOU - Jeremie Rehak (No. 4)

3. BOS at BAL - Ryan Blakney (No. 14)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. PIT at CHC - James Hoye (No. 27 out of 110)

2. TB at OAK - Brian Knight (No. 35)

Today's Hottest Games

1. PHI at ATL (80 degrees)

2. MIL at MIA (72 degrees)

3. TOR at HOU (72 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. PIT at CHC (46 degrees)

2. COL at STL (47 degrees)

3. CWS at KC (47 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 5.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -130

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 2.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -105

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 2.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O 130

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 3.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Nationals at Yankees

Projected: 10.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

·  Blue Jays at Astros

Projected: 9.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -110

·  Phillies at Braves

Projected: 9.76 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Pirates at Cubs

Projected: 5.89 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.0 O -120

·  Brewers at Marlins

Projected: 6.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O 100

·  Rockies at Cardinals

Projected: 6.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

San Francisco Giants (20-13) vs. San Diego Padres (18-16)

 

Johnny Cueto (THE BAT's No. 213 SP) vs. Chris Paddack (THE BAT's No. 54 SP)

Joe West (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 40 in MLB)

Oracle Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 27 HR | No. 11 K)

64 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

12 mph out to CF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Johnny Cueto may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 70 pitches

·  Johnny Cueto has been throwing a slider (18% increase) far more often in 2021 (26% usage) than he did in 2020 (8% usage)

·  Johnny Cueto is throwing a curveball 18% less often this season (3% usage) than he did last season (21% usage)

·  Johnny Cueto's 1.80 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.69 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  THE BAT X views the Giants as the #3 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  San Francisco boasts 4 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, #2 most in MLB (Mauricio Dubon, Brandon Crawford, Austin Slater, Wilmer Flores)

·  THE BAT X projects the Padres (#6 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.293 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Padres have 3 players (Fernando Tatis Jr., Victor Caratini, Jake Cronenworth) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #5 most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most profitable market for the San Francisco Giants has been their Run Line which is 21-12 generating 11.65 Units (28% ROI)

·  This season the Padres Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 20-14 resulting in 4.65 Units (12% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Total Bases Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)

 

Oakland Athletics (21-14) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (18-17)

 

O/U: 7.5 | OAK -130 | TB 110

 

Cole Irvin (THE BAT's No. 146 SP) vs. Shane McClanahan (THE BAT's No. 83 SP)

Brian Knight (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 35 in MLB)

Oakland Coliseum (No. 29 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)

68 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

9 mph out to RF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Cole Irvin's 3.09 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.36 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  Shane McClanahan may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 80 pitches

·  Shane McClanahan's huge platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  The Athletics offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty, Mark Canha)

·  The Tampa Bay Rays's 26.6 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the most on today's slate of games

·  The Rays have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30% , according to THE BAT X (Brett Phillips, Willy Adames, Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe)

·  The Rays offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the second-most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Mike Zunino)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 7.5 Runs

·  The opening Moneyline for the Athletics was -120, but is now -130 after it steamed 10 cents

·  The Oakland Athletics Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 21-14 resulting in 5.90 Units (13% ROI)

·  This season the Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 21-14 resulting in 5.90 Units (12% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Cole Irvin's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-130)

 

Atlanta Braves (16-17) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (18-16)

 

O/U: 7.5 | ATL -105 | PHI -115

 

Huascar Ynoa (THE BAT's No. 112 SP) vs. Aaron Nola (THE BAT's No. 11 SP)

Truist Park (No. 8 Runs | No. 21 HR | No. 23 K)

80 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

12 mph across the field

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Huascar Ynoa has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face 6 of today

·  Huascar Ynoa's 2.43 ERA is 1.16 points better than his 3.59 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  Aaron Nola has been throwing a fastball (12% increase) far more often in 2021 (45% usage) than he did in 2020 (33% usage)

·  The Atlanta Braves' 25.3 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the fifth-most on today's slate of games

·  Atlanta boasts 4 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, second-most in MLB (Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley)

·  THE BAT X projects the Phillies (No. 5 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.298 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Phillies have four players (Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, third-most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 70% of the cash and 51% of the bet tickets is on the Phillies

·  The most profitable market for the Atlanta Braves has been their Team Total Over which is 19-11 generating 6.06 Units (16% ROI)

·  This season the Phillies Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 19-14 resulting in 4.05 Units (11% ROI)

·  Aaron Nola's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)

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