MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 297)

2. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 6)

3. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 7)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Sam Hentges (No. 285 out of 297)

2. PIT - Chad Kuhl (No. 270)

3. MIN - Matt Shoemaker (No. 260)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. MIA at BOS - Adam Hamari (No. 6 out of 110)

2. TEX at SEA - Nick Mahrley (No. 28)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. MIL at WSH - Shane Livensparger (No. 9 out of 110)

2. BAL at CWS - Stu Scheurwater (No. 11)

3. NYY at DET - Jerry Meals (No. 26)

Today's Hottest Games

1. STL at ARI (78 degrees)

2. PHI at TB (72 degrees)

3. SD at HOU (72 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. MIA at BOS (44 degrees)

2. MIL at WSH (47 degrees)

3. ATL at NYM (50 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 4.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 105

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 4.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 2.83 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -110

·  Cleveland Indians

Projected: 2.97 runs

·  New York Mets

Projected: 2.99 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -145

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Cardinals at D-Backs

Projected: 9.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Padres at Astros

Projected: 8.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

·  Yankees at Tigers

Projected: 8.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Mets

Projected: 5.82 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Blue Jays at Indians

Projected: 6.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

·  Marlins at Red Sox

Projected: 6.89 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -125

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Detroit Tigers (21-31) vs. New York Yankees (29-23)

O/U: 9.0 | DET + 140 | NYY -160

Tarik Skubal (THE BAT's No. 185 SP) vs. Michael King (THE BAT's No. 114 SP)

Jerry Meals (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 26 in MLB)

Comerica Park (No. 14 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

64 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  The spin on Tarik Skubal's fastball (2230 rpm) has been 192 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (47% FB% since 2019), Tarik Skubal matches up well with Comerica Park (No. 8 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Michael King may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 81 pitches

·  The Yankees' 0.304 team wOBA makes them the No. 2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Yankees offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Yankees Moneyline has 75% of the bet tickets and 97% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the New York Yankees has been their Team Total Under which is 32-19 generating + 12.11 Units (21% ROI)

·  The Detroit Tigers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 30-20 resulting in + 8.00 Units (14% ROI)

·  Tarik Skubal's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-100/-130) is the most popular prop for the game

Chicago White Sox (31-20) vs. Baltimore Orioles (17-35)

O/U: 8.5 | CWS -240 | BAL + 200

Lucas Giolito (THE BAT's No. 21 SP) vs. Keegan Akin (THE BAT's No. 175 SP)

Stu Scheurwater (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 11 in MLB)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 9 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

63 degrees (No. 8 hottest today)

5 mph in from LF (No. 8 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Lucas Giolito's fastball spin rate (2425 rpm) has jumped nearly 100 rpm since 2020

·  Lucas Giolito is likely a better pitcher than his 4.04 ERA indicates, given his 3.45 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  As an extreme flyball pitcher (31% FB% since 2019), Keegan Akin may not be a great fit for the No. 4 HR in baseball, Guaranteed Rate Field, today

·  Keegan Akin (31% FB% since 2019) projects to face 3 Groundball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Flyball pitchers perform worst against Groundball hitters

·  THE BAT X views the White Sox as the most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The White Sox have three players (Andrew Vaughn, Jose Abreu, Yasmani Grandal) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Orioles Moneyline as it's dropped from + 215 to + 200 despite only getting 12% of the cash

·  The White Sox Moneyline has 88% of the cash and 60% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Chicago White Sox has been their Run Line which is 26-24 generating + 7.15 Units (13% ROI)

·  The Baltimore Orioles Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 27-23 resulting in + 1.75 Units (3% ROI)

New York Mets (25-20) vs. Atlanta Braves (24-26)

O/U: 5.5 | NYM -140 | ATL + 120

Jacob deGrom (THE BAT's No. 1 SP) vs. Max Fried (THE BAT's No. 87 SP)

Chad Whitson (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 31 in MLB)

Citi Field (No. 29 Runs | No. 15 HR | No. 4 K)

50 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

13 mph in from CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jacob deGrom may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 85 pitches

·  Jacob deGrom's spin rate (2400 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Jacob deGrom is throwing a fastball 20% more often this season (65% usage) than he did last season (45% usage)

·  Jacob deGrom is throwing a slider 12% less often this season (24% usage) than he did last season (36% usage)

·  Jacob deGrom's 0.80 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 2.41 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  Atlanta boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 6.0 Runs and is now 5.5 Runs

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 83% of the bet tickets and 68% of the cash on the Mets

·  The New York Mets Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 26-17 resulting in + 6.55 Units (13% ROI)

·  This season the Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 28-19 resulting in + 5.25 Units (9% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Ronald Acuna Jr.'s Total Bases Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+ 100)

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