MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 11 out of 299)

2. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 12)

3. TOR - Hyun-Jin Ryu (No. 24)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 287 out of 299)

2. SEA - Justin Dunn (No. 275)

3. NYM - Jordan Yamamoto (No. 254)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. BOS at PHI - Jeremie Rehak (No. 6 out of 110)

2. HOU at TEX - Ryan Additon (No. 21)

3. NYM at MIA - Roberto Ortiz (No. 24)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. TB at TOR - Jansen Visconti (No. 35 out of 110)

2. MIN at CLE - Jose Navas (No. 36)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CHC at STL (86 degrees)

2. BOS at PHI (85 degrees)

3. PIT at ATL (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAD at SF (55 degrees)

2. SEA at SD (68 degrees)

3. HOU at TEX (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 6.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 6.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 5.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.20 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -100

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  D-Backs at Rockies

Projected: 12.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -115

·  Rays at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Orioles at Nationals

Projected: 10.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Dodgers at Giants

Projected: 7.57 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Mets at Marlins

Projected: 7.57 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Mariners at Padres

Projected: 8.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Toronto Blue Jays (23-21) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (28-19)

O/U: 9 | TOR -165 | TB + 150

Hyun-Jin Ryu (THE BAT's No. 24 SP) vs. Michael Wacha (THE BAT's No. 191 SP)

Jansen Visconti (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 35 in MLB)

TD Ballpark (No. 4 Runs | No. 5 HR | No. 7 K)

84 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

5 mph out to RF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Hyun Jin Ryu is throwing a sinker 11% less often this season (1% usage) than he did last season (12% usage)

·  Hyun Jin Ryu's 2.51 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.58 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  Michael Wacha may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 80 pitches

·  Michael Wacha has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face 8 of today

·  The Blue Jays are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.1% according to THE BAT X

·  The Blue Jays have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.320 wOBA going forward

·  The Blue Jays have four players (Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rowdy Tellez, Teoscar Hernandez) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Rays have three players (Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, Mike Zunino) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Blue Jays Moneyline has 70% of the bet tickets and 86% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Tampa Bay Rays has been their Run Line which is 31-16 generating + 13.75 Units (21% ROI)

·  This season the Blue Jays Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 23-21 resulting in + 1.60 Units (3% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Hyun Jin Ryu's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/-100)

Cincinnati Reds (20-24) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (22-23)

O/U: 8.0 | CIN + 100 | MIL -120

Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 35 SP) vs. Freddy Peralta (THE BAT's No. 12 SP)

Bruce Dreckman (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 34 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

84 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

6 mph out to CF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Luis Castillo (95.8 mph) has lost 1.0 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  The spin rate on Luis Castillo's fastball (2264 rpm) has increased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Luis Castillo's groundball tendencies (56% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park (No. 1 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against Flyball hitters, Luis Castillo (56% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with 3 Flyball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  While THE BAT projects Freddy Peralta's ERA going forward to be 3.36, his actual has been 2.51 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  According to THE BAT X, the Reds and their 0.326 wOBA have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in 2021

·  Cincinnati boasts 3 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin, Jesse Winker)

·  The Brewers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.288 wOBA going forward

·  Milwaukee boasts 3 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Omar Narvaez, Lorenzo Cain, Avisail Garcia)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Reds Moneyline has steamed 10 cents as it opened at + 110 and is now + 100

·  The most profitable market for the Cincinnati Reds has been their Game Total Over which is 28-14 generating + 12.60 Units (26% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Milwaukee Brewers has been their Team Total Under which is 24-20 generating + 1.65 Units (3% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Freddy Peralta's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+ 100/-135)

San Diego Padres (29-17) vs. Seattle Mariners (21-25)

O/U: 7 | SD -265 | SEA + 225

Yu Darvish (THE BAT's No. 25 SP) vs. Justin Dunn (THE BAT's No. 275 SP)

Petco Park (No. 25 Runs | No. 20 HR | No. 10 K)

68 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

12 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Justin Dunn's fastball (93.0 mph) is 2.4 mph faster than it was in 2020

·  The spin rate on Justin Dunn's fastball (2361 rpm) has increased by 121 rpm in 2021

·  Justin Dunn has been throwing a curveball (11% increase) far more often in 2021 (34% usage) than he did in 2020 (23% usage)

·  Given that Flyball pitchers are least effective against Groundball hitters, Justin Dunn (43% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with 2 Groundball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  So far in 2021, Justin Dunn has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.63 ERA despite a 4.87 FIP

·  San Diego boasts 4 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, Ha-seong Kim, Fernando Tatis Jr.)

·  The Mariners (27.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 1 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Mariners have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Justin Dunn, Tom Murphy, Jacob Nottingham)

·  THE BAT X projects the Mariners (No. 4 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.279 wOBA) thus far in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Padres Moneyline has steamed 35 cents as it opened at -230 and is now -265

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 7.5 Runs and is now 7.0 Runs

·  This season the Padres Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 26-20 resulting in + 6.15 Units (12% ROI)

·  The Seattle Mariners Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 26-20 resulting in + 3.10 Units (5% ROI)

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