MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16018009_(1)

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Shane Bieber (No. 4 out of 298)

2. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 12)

3. HOU - Lance McCullers Jr. (No. 31)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CIN - Jeff Hoffman (No. 271 out of 298)

2. SEA - Robert Dugger (No. 265)

3. BAL - Adam Plutko (No. 259)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. NYM at TB - Bill Miller (No. 6 out of 110)

2. MIA at LAD - CB Bucknor (No. 13)

3. CIN at COL - Ryan Additon (No. 14)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. KC at CWS - Edwin Moscoso (No. 3 out of 110)

2. STL at SD - Greg Gibson (No. 13)

3. CHC at DET - Pat Hoberg (No. 17)

Today's Hottest Games

1. PHI at TOR (82 degrees)

2. WSH at ARI (78 degrees)

3. TEX at HOU (72 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. MIA at LAD (60 degrees)

2. STL at SD (62 degrees)

3. ATL at MIL (63 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.89 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 5.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 5.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -120

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Blue Jays

Projected: 11.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  Reds at Rockies

Projected: 10.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -110

·  Angels at Red Sox

Projected: 10.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Giants at Pirates

Projected: 7.35 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Braves at Brewers

Projected: 7.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

·  Marlins at Dodgers

Projected: 7.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Toronto Blue Jays (21-17) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (21-19)

O/U: 10 | TOR -200 | PHI + 170

Robbie Ray (THE BAT's No. 124 SP) vs. Chase Anderson (THE BAT's No. 228 SP)

Andy Fletcher (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 24 in MLB)

TD Ballpark (No. 6 Runs | No. 5 HR | No. 7 K)

82 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

9 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Robbie Ray's fastball (94.6 mph) has been 1.1 mph faster than it was last season

·  Robbie Ray's spin rate (2275 rpm) has decreased by 145 rpm in 2021

·  Robbie Ray's fastball usage (59% in 2021, 49% in 2020) has increased 10% this season

·  Robbie Ray has been throwing a slider (14% increase) far less often in 2021 (18% usage) than he did in 2020 (32% usage)

·  Robbie Ray has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.38 ERA is 1.44 points below his 4.82 FIP

·  As an extreme flyball pitcher (39% FB% since 2019), Chase Anderson may not be a great fit for the No. 5 HR in baseball, TD Ballpark, today

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against Groundball hitters, and Chase Anderson (39% FB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  Chase Anderson has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face seven of today

·  The Blue Jays have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.308 wOBA going forward

·  The Blue Jays have four players (Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rowdy Tellez, Teoscar Hernandez) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, tied for the most in MLB

·  The Phillies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.299 wOBA going forward

·  Philadelphia boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Jean Segura, Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Blue Jays Moneyline opened at -150, but is now -200 and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 69% of the bet tickets and 96% of the cash is on the Blue Jays

·  The Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 21-17 resulting in + 4.30 Units (10% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Philadelphia Phillies has been their Moneyline which is 21-19 generating + 1.80 Units (4% ROI)

·  Bryce Harper's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 385/-805)

Los Angeles Dodgers (22-17) vs. Miami Marlins (17-22)

O/U: 7.5 | LAD -155 | MIA + 135

Jimmy Nelson (THE BAT's No. 100 SP) vs. Pablo Lopez (THE BAT's No. 33 SP)

CB Bucknor (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 13 in MLB)

Dodger Stadium (No. 18 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

60 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

7 mph out to CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Los Angeles Dodgers will use Jimmy Nelson as an opener today

·  Pablo Lopez's 3.07 ERA is 0.52 points better than his 3.59 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Dodgers (25.4 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Dodgers offense has the most hitters in baseball with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or better this year (Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Will Smith, Chris Taylor, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy)

·  The Marlins offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Adam Duvall, Jesus Aguilar, Brian Anderson)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Game Total has shown the most line movement today as it opened at UNDER 8.0 Runs (-110), but has been bet down to UNDER 7.5 (-105)

·  The Marlins Run Line opening price of + 1.5 (-145) has steamed 15 cents and is now + 1.5 (-160)

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 74% of the bet tickets and 66% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The Run Line has 55% of the bet tickets on the Dodgers, but 56% of the cash is on the Marlins resulting in two-way action

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Dodgers has been their Game Total Over which is 21-17 generating + 2.45 Units (6% ROI)

·  The Miami Marlins Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 21-18 resulting in + 0.30 Units (1% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Mookie Betts's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 375/-770)

San Diego Padres (23-17) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (23-17)

O/U: 7 | SD -125 | STL + 105

Ryan Weathers (THE BAT's No. 135 SP) vs. Kwang-hyun Kim (THE BAT's No. 170 SP)

Greg Gibson (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 13 in MLB)

Petco Park (No. 25 Runs | No. 20 HR | No. 10 K)

62 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

10 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Ryan Weathers may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 85 pitches

·  Ryan Weathers has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  Kwang Hyun Kim's fastball velocity (88.5 mph) has been down nearly a full mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  Kwang Hyun Kim is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his huge platoon split

·  Kwang Hyun Kim's 2.74 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.42 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  St. Louis boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Dylan Carlson, Matt Carpenter, Justin Williams)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Cardinals Moneyline as it's dropped from + 125 to + 105 despite only getting 22% of the cash

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 78% of the cash and 56% of the bet tickets is on the Padres

·  This season the Cardinals Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 25-15 resulting in + 11.45 Units (21% ROI)

·  The San Diego Padres Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 22-18 resulting in + 2.15 Units (5% ROI)

·  Kwang Hyun Kim's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-120)

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

 

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Follow The Money: We have reached the point in the season where you must factor byes into your handicapping. Even the week before the bye is a factor (more from Steve Makinen on this topic).

VSiN Big Bets: With such small totals, be careful laying a run line in these MLB playoff games.

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Matt Brown: Dolphins -3 vs Jets

Pauly Howard: Eagles 1H (-3) vs Cardinals

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-10-07_at_1.03.45_PM

Betting SplitsPercentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

 

 

Close