MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 299)

2. LAD - Trevor Bauer (No. 20)

3. COL - German Marquez (No. 36)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Chad Kuhl (No. 254 out of 299)

2. DET - Jose Urena (No. 237)

3. WSH - Rogelio Armenteros (No. 229)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. CLE at BAL - Phil Cuzzi (No. 3 out of 110)

2. NYM at SD - Tripp Gibson (No. 10)

3. ARI at MIL - Dan Bellino (No. 17)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. DET at CWS - Greg Gibson (No. 12 out of 110)

2. SEA at LAA - Jordan Baker (No. 18)

3. OAK at COL - Ramon De Jesus (No. 20)

Today's Hottest Games

1. WSH at PHI (89 degrees)

2. CLE at BAL (88 degrees)

3. OAK at COL (87 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CHC at SF (61 degrees)

2. NYM at SD (66 degrees)

3. TB at TEX (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 6.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 100

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 5.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 5.60 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 3.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -125

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Athletics at Rockies

Projected: 11.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -115

·  Nationals at Phillies

Projected: 10.92 runs

·  Red Sox at Yankees

Projected: 10.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Padres

Projected: 7.83 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

·  Rays at Rangers

Projected: 8.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

·  Marlins at Pirates

Projected: 8.19 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Baltimore Orioles (20-38) vs. Cleveland Indians (31-25)

O/U: 9 | BAL + 100 | CLE -120

Jorge Lopez (THE BAT's No. 180 SP) vs. Cal Quantrill (THE BAT's No. 166 SP)

Phil Cuzzi (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 3 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 7 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

88 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

6 mph out to LF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jorge Lopez's ability to keep the ball on the ground (49% GB% since 2019) should help him in Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 5 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against Flyball hitters, Jorge Lopez (49% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with 4 Flyball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Jorge Lopez has a reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  Cal Quantrill may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 75 pitches

·  Cal Quantrill's 2.45 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.46 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  Strikeouts against Cleveland may be easy to come by today, as 3 players (Austin Hedges, Bradley Zimmer, Bobby Bradley) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.293 wOBA going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs, but is now 9.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  The Indians moneyline has steamed 10 cents as it opened at -110 and is now -120

·  The moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 81% of the bet tickets and 69% of the cash on the Indians

·  The most profitable market for the Cleveland Indians has been their Team Total Under which is 29-22 generating + 4.69 Units (8% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Baltimore Orioles has been their Game Total Under which is 31-25 generating + 3.60 Units (6% ROI)

·  Jose Ramirez's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 225/-345) is the most popular prop for the game

Milwaukee Brewers (32-26) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (20-40)

O/U: 8 | MIL -245 | ARI + 205

Corbin Burnes (THE BAT's No. 2 SP) vs. Caleb Smith (THE BAT's No. 174 SP)

Dan Bellino (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 17 in MLB)

American Family Field (No. 15 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

86 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

14 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Corbin Burnes is throwing a sinker 13% less often this season (11% usage) than he did last season (24% usage)

·  Corbin Burnes is throwing a cutter 20% more often this season (55% usage) than he did last season (35% usage)

·  Corbin Burnes's 2.24 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 2.95 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  Caleb Smith may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 78 pitches

·  Caleb Smith may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 10 best home run park in baseball (American Family Field) given his flyball tendencies (48% FB% since 2019)

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against Groundball hitters, and Caleb Smith (48% FB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  The Milwaukee Brewers' 26.0 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 most on today's slate of games

·  The Brewers have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Willy Adames, Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes)

·  The Brewers' 0.292 team wOBA makes them the No. 2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The D-Backs (21.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the D-Backs and their 0.305 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 7.5 Runs and is now 8.0 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the moneyline as 65% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets is on the Brewers

·  The Milwaukee Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 31-27 resulting in + 4.20 Units (5% ROI)

·  This season the D-Backs Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 32-27 resulting in + 2.10 Units (3% ROI)

·  Corbin Burnes' Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-145/+ 110)

Texas Rangers (23-37) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (37-23)

O/U: 8 | TEX + 110 | TB -130

Dane Dunning (THE BAT's No. 57 SP) vs. Michael Wacha (THE BAT's No. 215 SP)

Tim Timmons (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 33 in MLB)

Globe Life Field (No. 19 Runs | No. 18 HR | No. 21 K)

70 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Dane Dunning has been throwing a fastball (22% increase) far less often in 2021 (0% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  Dane Dunning's sinker usage (56% in 2021, 39% in 2020) has increased 17% this season

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against fly ball hitters, Dane Dunning (51% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Dane Dunning has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.67 ERA despite a 3.07 FIP

·  Michael Wacha may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 56 pitches

·  Michael Wacha's large reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  The Rangers offense knows how to barrel a baseball: They have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Joey Gallo, Nate Lowe, Adolis Garcia)

·  The Rays offense knows how to barrel a baseball: They have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, Mike Zunino)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total UNDER opened at 8.5 Runs (-110), but is now UNDER 8.0 (-115) and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  The Game Total has two-way action as 52% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 24% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The moneyline has lopsided action today with 65% of the bet tickets and 65% of the cash on the Rays

·  The Tampa Bay Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 40-20 resulting in + 20.45 Units (25% ROI)

·  This season the Rangers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 32-27 resulting in + 2.10 Units (3% ROI)

·  Austin Meadows' Total Bases Prop is priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110) is the most popular prop for the game

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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