MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 3 out of 294)

2. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 5)

3. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 7)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. STL - Johan Oviedo (No. 280 out of 294)

2. CLE - Sam Hentges (No. 273)

3. TEX - Jordan Lyles (No. 260)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. ATL at CIN - Mike Estabrook (No. 5 out of 110)

2. PIT at STL - Tripp Gibson (No. 11)

3. CHC at LAD - Ryan Blakney (No. 16)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. COL at MIL - Andy Fletcher (No. 19 out of 110)

2. ARI at SD - Lance Barksdale (No. 26)

3. KC at TEX - Pat Hoberg (No. 35)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CHC at LAD (88 degrees)

2. ATL at CIN (87 degrees)

3. BAL at TOR (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. OAK at SF (58 degrees)

2. KC at TEX (70 degrees)

3. COL at MIL (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 105

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -105

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 2.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Orioles at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -115

·  Yankees at Red Sox

Projected: 10.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Braves at Reds

Projected: 10.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Nationals at Marlins

Projected: 6.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -115

·  Phillies at Mets

Projected: 7.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  D-Backs at Padres

Projected: 7.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

 

GAMES OF THE DAY

Miami Marlins (33-43) vs. Washington Nationals (36-38)

O/U: 6.5 | MIA + 110 | WSH -130

Sandy Alcantara (THE BAT's No. 38 SP) vs. Max Scherzer (THE BAT's No. 7 SP)

Marlins Park (No. 27 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)

72 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Sandy Alcantara is throwing a sinker 10% less often this season (29% usage) than he did last season (39% usage)

·  Sandy Alcantara is throwing a changeup 17% more often this season (27% usage) than he did last season (10% usage)

·  Sandy Alcantara (48% GB% since 2019) projects to face two fly ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since ground ball pitchers perform best against fly ball hitters

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (35% FB% since 2019), Max Scherzer matches up well with Marlins Park (No. 3 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are least effective against ground ball hitters, Max Scherzer (35% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with four ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Max Scherzer's 2.19 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.00 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Marlins are the most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 28.2% according to THE BAT X

·  The Marlins have four hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Jazz Chisholm, Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Alfaro, Adam Duvall)

·  The Marlins have four players (Adam Duvall, Starling Marte, Garrett Cooper, Jazz Chisholm) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 69% of the bet tickets and 77% of the cash is on the Nationals

·  The Washington Nationals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 48-23 resulting in + 22.95 Units (29% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Game Total Under which is 40-32 generating + 4.45 Units (5% ROI)

Chicago White Sox (44-31) vs. Seattle Mariners (40-37)

O/U: 8.5 | CWS -180 | SEA + 160

Dallas Keuchel (THE BAT's No. 111 SP) vs. Marco Gonzales (THE BAT's No. 115 SP)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

79 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

10 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Dallas Keuchel's ground ball tendencies (57% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 3 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against fly ball hitters, and Dallas Keuchel (57% GB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  The White Sox (27.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The White Sox have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Brian Goodwin, Yoan Moncada, Zack Collins)

Los Angeles Dodgers (46-31) vs. Chicago Cubs (42-35)

O/U: 8.0 | LAD -200 | CHC + 170

Clayton Kershaw (THE BAT's No. 8 SP) vs. Adbert Alzolay (THE BAT's No. 121 SP)

Ryan Blakney (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 16 in MLB)

Dodger Stadium (No. 13 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

88 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

8 mph out to RF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Clayton Kershaw (90.2 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Clayton Kershaw has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  Adbert Alzolay may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 84 pitches

·  The Dodgers (22.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Albert Pujols, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor)

·  The Chicago Cubs's 28.0 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 most on today's slate of games

·  Strikeouts against Chicago may be easy to come by today, as four players (Javier Baez, Patrick Wisdom, Jake Marisnick, Adbert Alzolay) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 69% of the bet tickets and 56% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 66% of the bet tickets and 53% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 45-29 resulting in + 12.50 Units (15% ROI)

·  The Los Angeles Dodgers Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 39-36 resulting in + 0.35 Units (0% ROI)

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NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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