MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. CIN - Luis Castillo (No. 25 out of 294)

2. TOR - Hyun-Jin Ryu (No. 35)

3. OAK - Sean Manaea (No. 43)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Sam Hentges (No. 278 out of 294)

2. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 275)

3. COL - Chi Chi Gonzalez (No. 255)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. LAD at ARI - Bill Miller (No. 2 out of 110)

2. NYM at WSH - Ben May (No. 11)

3. CLE at PIT - Lance Barrett (No. 37)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. TB at SEA - Edwin Moscoso (No. 1 out of 110)

2. BOS at KC - Sam Holbrook (No. 6)

3. PHI at SF - Greg Gibson (No. 13)

Today's Hottest Games

1. TOR at BAL (86 degrees)

2. BOS at KC (86 degrees)

3. OAK at NYY (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. PHI at SF (62 degrees)

2. MIN at TEX (70 degrees)

3. CWS at HOU (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 6.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 105

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 6.48 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 3.76 runs

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.78 runs

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.83 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Rockies

Projected: 12.07 runs |  Vegas O/U: 12 

·  Blue Jays at Orioles

Projected: 11.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 

·  Red Sox at Royals

Projected: 10.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Cardinals at Braves

Projected: 7.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Reds at Padres

Projected: 8.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 8 O -105

·  White Sox at Astros

Projected: 8.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Baltimore Orioles (23-47) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (34-35)

O/U: 10.5 | BAL + 160 | TOR -175

Matt Harvey (THE BAT's No. 275 SP) vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (THE BAT's No. 35 SP)

Jerry Meals (Extreme Hitter's Umpire, No. 23 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 5 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

86 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

8 mph out to CF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Hyun Jin Ryu's ground ball tendencies (52% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 4 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against fly ball hitters, and Hyun Jin Ryu (52% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  So far in 2021, Hyun Jin Ryu has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.43 ERA despite a 4.00 FIP

·  The Orioles are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.4% according to THE BAT X

·  Baltimore boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Maikel Franco, Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Pedro Severino)

·  The Blue Jays (21.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Toronto boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Rowdy Tellez, Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Baltimore Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 35-31 resulting in + 0.82 Units (1% ROI)

·  The Toronto Blue Jays Team Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 35-28 resulting in + 0.22 Units (0% ROI)

Chicago Cubs (39-32) vs. Miami Marlins (31-39)

O/U: 9.5 | CHC -150 | MIA + 140

Alec Mills (THE BAT's No. 241 SP) vs. Zach Thompson (THE BAT's No. 249 SP)

Stu Scheurwater (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 15 in MLB)

Wrigley Field (No. 7 Runs | No. 17 HR | No. 20 K)

78 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Alec Mills may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 72 pitches

·  Zach Thompson may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 85 pitches

·  While THE BAT projects Zach Thompson's ERA going forward to be 4.88, his actual has been 2.25 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  The Cubs are the most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.4% according to THE BAT X

·  The Marlins (25.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Marlins (0.295 wOBA) have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Marlins offense is quite fast; they have the No. 2 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jon Berti, Adam Duvall, Starling Marte, Jazz Chisholm)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most profitable market for the Chicago Cubs has been their Team Total Under which is 41-27 generating + 10.42 Units (13% ROI)

·  The Miami Marlins Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 36-30 resulting in + 2.60 Units (3% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks (20-52) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (43-27)

O/U: 9.5 | ARI + 175 | LAD -190

Alex Young (THE BAT's No. 226 SP) vs. Tony Gonsolin (THE BAT's No. 103 SP)

Bill Miller (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 2 in MLB)

Chase Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

78 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Alex Young may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 72 pitches

·  So far in 2021, Alex Young has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.86 ERA despite a 5.10 FIP

·  Tony Gonsolin has a reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face seven of today

·  The D-Backs' 0.295 team wOBA makes them the No. 7 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  Los Angeles boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Chris Taylor, Albert Pujols, Justin Turner)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This season the D-Backs Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 39-32 resulting in + 3.45 Units (4% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Dodgers has been their Game Total Over which is 36-32 generating + 1.65 Units (2% ROI)

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