MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Shane Bieber (No. 8 out of 296)

2. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 9)

3. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 15)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 271 out of 296)

2. BAL - Bruce Zimmermann (No. 250)

3. ARI - Jon Duplantier (No. 230)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. PIT at MIL - Dan Bellino (No. 11 out of 110)

2. SF at WSH - Alex Tosi (No. 19)

3. COL at CIN - Gabe Morales (No. 25)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. ATL at MIA - Mark Wegner (No. 5 out of 110)

2. KC at OAK - Shane Livensparger (No. 16)

3. CWS at DET - Pat Hoberg (No. 19)

Today's Hottest Games

1. COL at CIN (85 degrees)

2. HOU at MIN (84 degrees)

3. PIT at MIL (82 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. KC at OAK (67 degrees)

2. SD at NYM (69 degrees)

3. ATL at MIA (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 6.09 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -110

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -135

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Blue Jays at Red Sox

Projected: 11.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115

·  Astros at Twins

Projected: 10.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

·  Rockies at Reds

Projected: 10.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Mets

Projected: 7.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O + 100

·  Braves at Marlins

Projected: 8.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Rangers at Dodgers

Projected: 8.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

Milwaukee Brewers (37-27) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (23-40)

O/U: 9.0 | MIL -210 | PIT + 175

Adrian Houser (THE BAT's No. 128 SP) vs. Wil Crowe (THE BAT's No. 271 SP)

Dan Bellino (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 11 in MLB)

American Family Field (No. 15 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

82 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

6 mph out to RF (No. 7 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  American Family Field is baseball's No. 10 best park for home runs, but Adrian Houser's groundball-heavy skillset (58% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Adrian Houser has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.66 ERA is 1.13 points below his 4.79 FIP

·  Wil Crowe may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 82 pitches

·  The Brewers are the No. 2 most strikeout-prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 27.1% according to THE BAT X

·  The Brewers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.296 wOBA going forward

·  Milwaukee boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Pirates Run Line opening price of + 1.5 (-115) has steamed 10 cents and is now + 1.5 (-125)

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 81% of the bet tickets and 92% of the cash on the Brewers

Los Angeles Dodgers (38-26) vs. Texas Rangers (25-40)

O/U: 7.5 | LAD -235 | TEX + 195

Walker Buehler (THE BAT's No. 29 SP) vs. Dane Dunning (THE BAT's No. 51 SP)

Dodger Stadium (No. 17 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

81 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

8 mph out to RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Walker Buehler (94.7 mph) has lost 1.7 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  The spin rate on Walker Buehler's fastball (2635 rpm) has increased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Dane Dunning has been throwing a fastball (22% increase) far less often in 2021 (0% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  Dane Dunning has been throwing a sinker (16% increase) far more often in 2021 (55% usage) than he did in 2020 (39% usage)

·  Dane Dunning's groundball tendencies (51% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Dodger Stadium (No. 7 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Groundball pitchers tend to perform worse against Flyball hitters, and Dane Dunning (51% GB% since 2019) is projected to face 4 of them today

·  Despite a 2.97 FIP, Dane Dunning's unlucky ERA has been 1.29 points worse at 4.26

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Albert Pujols, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor)

·  The Rangers (26.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The projected lineup for the Rangers holds 4 extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Dane Dunning, Eli White, Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia. THE BAT projects all for a Dane Dunning, Eli White, Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia+ underlying K%

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 8.0 Runs, but is now 7.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  There is reverse line movement on the Rangers Moneyline as it's dropped from + 210 to + 195 despite only getting 38% of the cash

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 88% of the bet tickets and 62% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 74% of the bet tickets and 51% of the cash on the Dodgers

Cleveland Indians (34-27) vs. Seattle Mariners (31-35)

O/U: 7.5 | CLE -235 | SEA + 195

Shane Bieber (THE BAT's No. 8 SP) vs. Logan Gilbert (THE BAT's No. 147 SP)

Progressive Field (No. 5 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

74 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

7 mph in from LF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Shane Bieber's fastball (92.3 mph) has been 1.2 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Shane Bieber has been throwing a slider (16% increase) far more often in 2021 (27% usage) than he did in 2020 (11% usage)

·  Shane Bieber has been throwing a cutter (11% increase) far less often in 2021 (3% usage) than he did in 2020 (14% usage)

·  Logan Gilbert (38% FB% since 2019) projects to face four ground ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Flyball pitchers perform worst against ground ball hitters

·  Despite a 4.26 FIP, Logan Gilbert's unlucky ERA has been 0.72 points worse at 4.98

·  The Indians have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Bobby Bradley, Austin Hedges, Bradley Zimmer)

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.297 wOBA going forward

·  The Mariners' 0.283 team wOBA makes them the No. 7 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Mariners have four players (Kyle Seager, Tom Murphy, Dylan Moore, Mitch Haniger) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Mariners Moneyline, as it has dropped from + 205 to + 185 despite only getting 33% of the cash

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 84% of the bet tickets and 67% of the cash is on the Indians

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 77% of the bet tickets and 55% of the cash is on the OVER

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