MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 5 out of 337)

2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 12)

3. CIN - Sonny Gray (No. 28)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 326 out of 337)

2. STL - Johan Oviedo (No. 290)

3. KC - Daniel Lynch (No. 215)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. SD at MIA - Bill Miller (No. 3 out of 110)

2. DET at KC - Jeremy Riggs (No. 5)

3. OAK at SEA - Nestor Ceja (No. 22)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. WSH at BAL - Edwin Moscoso (No. 1 out of 110)

2. STL at CIN - Chad Fairchild (No. 19)

3. COL at LAD - Jerry Meals (No. 20)

Today's Hottest Games

1. DET at KC (91 degrees)

2. LAA at MIN (89 degrees)

3. WSH at BAL (88 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. PIT at SF (59 degrees)

2. NYY at BOS (68 degrees)

3. TEX at HOU (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 5.82 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 5.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 5.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.06 runs

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 3.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Nationals at Orioles

Projected: 11.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -105

·  Angels at Twins

Projected: 10.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115

·  Cardinals at Reds

Projected: 10.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Pirates at Giants

Projected: 7.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -120

·  Padres at Marlins

Projected: 7.76 runs

·  White Sox at Brewers

Projected: 7.89 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Baltimore Orioles (33-64) vs. Washington Nationals (45-52)

O/U: 10.5 | BAL -120 | WSH + 100

John Means (THE BAT's No. 67 SP) vs. Paolo Espino (THE BAT's No. 326 SP)

Edwin Moscoso (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 1 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 7 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

88 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

9 mph out to CF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, John Means' fastball (92.2 mph) has been 1.2 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  John Means is a fly ball pitcher (43% FB% since 2019) and Oriole Park at Camden Yards is the No. 2 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are least effective against Ground ball hitters, John Means (43% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  John Means has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.72 ERA is 1.73 points below his 4.45 FIP

·  Paolo Espino may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 2 best home run park in baseball (Oriole Park at Camden Yards) given his fly ball tendencies (38% FB% since 2019)

·  The Nationals are the No. 2 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 20.4% according to THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Nationals and their 0.323 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 10.0 Runs and is now 10.5 Runs

·  The Nationals Moneyline has steamed 10 cents as it opened at + 110 and is now + 100

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 69% of the bet tickets and 62% of the cash on the Nationals

·  This season the Nationals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 58-35 resulting in + 19.85 Units (19% ROI)

·  The Baltimore Orioles Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 50-43 resulting in + 2.45 Units (2% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Juan Soto's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 235/-375)

Houston Astros (60-39) vs. Texas Rangers (35-64)

O/U: 9.0 | HOU -240 | TEX + 200

Zack Greinke (THE BAT's No. 91 SP) vs. Taylor Hearn (THE BAT's No. 196 SP)

Tim Timmons (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 34 in MLB)

Minute Maid Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zack Greinke's fastball (88.3 mph) is nearly a full mph faster than it was in 2020

·  Zack Greinke's fastball (2225 rpm) has lost nearly 100 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Zack Greinke is throwing a sinker 12% less often this season (7% usage) than he did last season (19% usage)

·  Zack Greinke's curveball usage (18% in 2021, 8% in 2020) has increased 10% this season

·  Zack Greinke has been throwing a changeup (13% increase) far more often in 2021 (22% usage) than he did in 2020 (9% usage)

·  Taylor Hearn may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 40 pitches

·  Taylor Hearn has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.70 ERA is 0.50 points below his 5.20 FIP

·  The Astros are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 19.6% according to THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.333 wOBA have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Astros offense has the No. 1 (tie) most hitters in baseball with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or better this year (Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs, but is now 9.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  The Houston Astros Moneyline opening price of -220 has steamed 20 cents and is now -240

·  The Astros Moneyline has 90% of the bet tickets and 75% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Houston Astros has been their Game Total Over which is 56-42 generating + 10.50 Units (10% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 340/-650)

Minnesota Twins (42-57) vs. Los Angeles Angels (48-49)

O/U: 10.0 | MIN -130 | LAA + 110

Bailey Ober (THE BAT's No. 80 SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

Cory Blaser (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 27 in MLB)

Target Field (No. 12 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

89 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

9 mph out to RF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jaime Barria's fly ball nature (38% FB% since 2019) should play well in Target Field (No. 9 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Jaime Barria (38% FB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Fly ball pitchers perform worst against Ground ball hitters

·  The Twins (26.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Strikeouts against Minnesota may be easy to come by today, as four players (Ryan Jeffers, Miguel Sano, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  Minnesota boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson, Trevor Larnach)

·  The Angels are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.9% according to THE BAT X

·  The Angels offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jared Walsh, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Twins was -115, but is now -130 after it steamed 15 cents

·  The most profitable market for the Minnesota Twins has been their Game Total Over which is 57-37 generating + 16.70 Units (15% ROI)

·  The Los Angeles Angels Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 55-41 resulting in + 9.50 Units (9% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Josh Donaldson's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 275/-460)

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