MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 344)

2. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 3)

3. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 7)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 327 out of 344)

2. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 322)

3. MIA - Nick Neidert (No. 309)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. NYM at PIT - Jeremy Riggs (No. 4 out of 110)

2. MIA at PHI - Phil Cuzzi (No. 5)

3. LAD at COL - Cory Blaser (No. 28)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. MIN at DET - John Libka (No. 6 out of 110)

2. MIL at CIN - Carlos Torres (No. 8)

3. BAL at KC - Pat Hoberg (No. 36)

Today's Hottest Games

1. LAD at COL (88 degrees)

2. SEA at LAA (84 degrees)

3. TB at ATL (81 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CLE at OAK (71 degrees)

2. NYM at PIT (72 degrees)

3. TEX at TOR (75 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 6.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -110

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

·  Kansas City Royals

Projected: 5.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 2.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -120

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 2.93 runs

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 3.19 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -135

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Dodgers at Rockies

Projected: 11.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 12.0 O -110

·  Twins at Tigers

Projected: 10.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -120

·  Red Sox at Yankees

Projected: 10.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Nationals

Projected: 6.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Rangers at Blue Jays

Projected: 7.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Marlins at Phillies

Projected: 7.87 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds (48-44) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (55-39)

O/U: 7.5 | CIN + 120 | MIL -140

Sonny Gray (THE BAT's No. 24 SP) vs. Corbin Burnes (THE BAT's No. 2 SP)

Carlos Torres (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 8 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

79 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

7 mph in from LF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Great American Ball Park is baseball's No. 1 best park for home runs, but Sonny Gray's ground ball-heavy skillset (51% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Sonny Gray (51% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Corbin Burnes is throwing a sinker 14% less often this season (10% usage) than he did last season (24% usage)

·  Corbin Burnes has been throwing a cutter (18% increase) far more often in 2021 (53% usage) than he did in 2020 (35% usage)

·  Corbin Burnes and his 2.36 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 2.96 thus far in 2021

·  The Reds offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez)

·  THE BAT X projects the Brewers (No. 3 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.304 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Brewers offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Willy Adames, Avisail Garcia, Keston Hiura)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as it opened at UNDER 8.0 Runs (+ 100), but has been bet down to UNDER 7.5 (-105)

·  The Brewers Moneyline has steamed 15 cents as it opened at -125 and is now -140

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 81% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets is on the UNDER

·  The Brewers Moneyline has 69% of the cash and 56% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most popular prop for the game is Corbin Burnes' Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130/+ 100)

Colorado Rockies (40-53) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (58-35)

O/U: 12 | COL + 140 | LAD -160

Jon Gray (THE BAT's No. 57 SP) vs. David Price (THE BAT's No. 70 SP)

Cory Blaser (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 28 in MLB)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

88 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

5 mph in from RF (No. 6 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  David Price may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 66 pitches

·  David Price's 3.23 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.07 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Rockies (26.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Strikeouts against Colorado may be easy to come by today, as three players (Chris Owings, Ryan McMahon, Jon Gray) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Rockies have three players (Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia, Garrett Hampson) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Albert Pujols, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Rockies Moneyline as it's dropped from + 160 to + 140 despite only getting 34% of the cash

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 65% of the bet tickets and 74% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The Dodgers Moneyline has 68% of the bet tickets and 66% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  Max Muncy's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 260/-425) is the most popular prop for the game

Oakland Athletics (53-41) vs. Cleveland Indians (46-43)

O/U: 8.0 | OAK -160 | CLE + 140

Chris Bassitt (THE BAT's No. 55 SP) vs. Zach Plesac (THE BAT's No. 102 SP)

Gabe Morales (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 31 in MLB)

Oakland Coliseum (No. 28 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)

71 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

8 mph out to RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Chris Bassitt and his 3.28 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.97 thus far in 2021

·  Zach Plesac may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 70 pitches

·  THE BAT X views the Athletics as the No. 5 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Athletics offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Matt Chapman, Ramon Laureano, Seth Brown, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy)

·  The Indians (26.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Strikeouts against Cleveland may be easy to come by today, as four players (Bradley Zimmer, Daniel Johnson Jr., Bobby Bradley, Austin Hedges) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.301 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians have three players (Harold Ramirez, Amed Rosario, Cesar Hernandez) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs, but is now 8.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  There is reverse line movement on the Indians Moneyline as it's dropped from + 150 to + 140 despite only getting 40% of the cash

·  The Run Line has the most lopsided action today with 96% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash on the Athletics

·  Chris Bassitt's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+ 115/-150) is the most popular prop for the game

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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