MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 4 out of 341)

2. MIA - Pablo Lopez (No. 17)

3. CIN - Luis Castillo (No. 20)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Spenser Watkins (No. 339 out of 341)

2. PIT - Chase De Jong (No. 333)

3. NYM - Jerad Eickhoff (No. 329)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. COL at SD - Ryan Blakney (No. 10 out of 110)

2. KC at CLE - Nick Mahrley (No. 27)

3. ARI at LAD - Tony Randazzo (No. 28)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. OAK at TEX - Edwin Moscoso (No. 3 out of 110)

2. CIN at MIL - John Libka (No. 6)

3. ATL at MIA - Mark Carlson (No. 13)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CWS at BAL (85 degrees)

2. ARI at LAD (83 degrees)

3. DET at MIN (82 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. WSH at SF (61 degrees)

2. CIN at MIL (68 degrees)

3. STL at CHC (69 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 110

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 3.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 105

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.43 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 105

 

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Red Sox

Projected: 11.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

·  White Sox at Orioles

Projected: 10.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

·  Tigers at Twins

Projected: 9.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Cardinals at Cubs

Projected: 6.77 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -115

·  Braves at Marlins

Projected: 6.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O 100

·  Reds at Brewers

Projected: 7.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -125

GAMES OF THE DAY

Milwaukee Brewers (53-38) vs. Cincinnati Reds (47-42)

O/U: 7 | MIL -160 | CIN 140

Brandon Woodruff (THE BAT's No. 5 SP) vs. Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 22 SP)

John Libka (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 6 in MLB)

American Family Field (No. 12 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

68 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

13 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Brandon Woodruff's fastball (2364 rpm) has lost nearly 100 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Brandon Woodruff's 2.10 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.03 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  Luis Castillo's fastball spin rate (2308 rpm) has jumped 120 rpm since 2020

·  Luis Castillo's ability to keep the ball on the ground (56% GB% since 2019) should help him in American Family Field (No. 10 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Luis Castillo (56% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  The Brewers are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.6% according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X projects the Brewers (No. 3 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.303 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Reds have three players (Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Tucker Barnhart) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline opening price of -140 has steamed 20 cents and is now -160

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 67% of the cash and 64% of the bet tickets is on the Brewers

·  The most profitable market for the Milwaukee Brewers has been their Run Line which is 49-42 generating 8.00 Units (7% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Cincinnati Reds has been their Moneyline which is 47-42 generating 2.35 Units (2% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Brandon Woodruff's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts ( 110/-145)

San Francisco Giants (56-32) vs. Washington Nationals (42-46)

O/U: 8 | SF -210 | WSH 175

Kevin Gausman (THE BAT's No. 20 SP) vs. Erick Fedde (THE BAT's No. 199 SP)

Oracle Park (No. 19 Runs | No. 27 HR | No. 11 K)

61 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

11 mph out to LF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kevin Gausman's fastball velocity (93.8 mph) has been down nearly a full mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  Kevin Gausman is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  Kevin Gausman and his 1.74 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.52 thus far in 2021

·  Erick Fedde has been throwing a fastball (21% increase) far less often in 2021 (1% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  Erick Fedde is throwing a sinker 13% more often this season (46% usage) than he did last season (33% usage)

·  Erick Fedde (52% GB% since 2019) projects to face three Fly ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Ground ball pitchers perform worst against Fly ball hitters

·  According to THE BAT X, the Giants and their 0.327 wOBA have been the No. 1 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Giants offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Steven Duggar, Austin Slater, Brandon Crawford, Wilmer Flores)

·  The Nationals are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.4% according to THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Nationals and their 0.318 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Nationals Run Line has steamed 10 cents as it opened at 1.5 (-110) and is now 1.5 (-120)

·  The San Francisco Giants Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 56-32 resulting in 29.70 Units (28% ROI)

·  This season the Nationals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 54-31 resulting in 20.15 Units (21% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Kevin Gausman's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts ( 125/-160)

Los Angeles Dodgers (55-35) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (26-65)

O/U: 9 | LAD -240 | ARI 200

Tony Gonsolin (THE BAT's No. 115 SP) vs. Merrill Kelly (THE BAT's No. 159 SP)

Tony Randazzo (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 28 in MLB)

Dodger Stadium (No. 15 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

83 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

8 mph out to CF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Tony Gonsolin's fastball (92.6 mph) has been 1.9 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Tony Gonsolin's spin rate (2384 rpm) has decreased by 105 rpm in 2021

·  Tony Gonsolin is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his reverse platoon split

·  Despite a 4.03 FIP, Merrill Kelly's unlucky ERA has been 0.57 points worse at 4.60

·  The Dodgers' 0.323 team wOBA makes them the No. 4 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Albert Pujols)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 9 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 77% of the bet tickets and 95% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 78% of the bet tickets and 67% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  The Arizona Diamondbacks Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 49-41 resulting in 4.15 Units (4% ROI)

·  Mookie Betts' Total Bases Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/ 105)

 

 

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