MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 6 out of 342)

2. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 21)

3. HOU - Lance McCullers Jr. (No. 28)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 332 out of 342)

2. STL - Jon Lester (No. 329)

3. MIA - Nick Neidert (No. 325)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. SF at MIL - Ron Kulpa (No. 3 out of 110)

2. CWS at CHC - Ryan Blakney (No. 7)

3. ARI at SD - Roberto Ortiz (No. 12)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. NYM at PHI - Nic Lentz (No. 10 out of 110)

2. TEX at OAK - Ramon De Jesus (No. 31)

3. TB at BAL - Jim Reynolds (No. 32)

Today's Hottest Games

1. KC at STL (90 degrees)

2. MIA at COL (89 degrees)

3. PIT at CIN (87 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. TEX at OAK (67 degrees)

2. MIN at HOU (72 degrees)

3. ARI at SD (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.86 runs

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 5.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 3.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.35 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 100

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.37 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Marlins at Rockies

Projected: 10.94 runs

·  Rays at Orioles

Projected: 10.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -120

·  Mariners at Yankees

Projected: 9.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Phillies

Projected: 7.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

·  Twins at Astros

Projected: 7.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  D-Backs at Padres

Projected: 7.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Atlanta Braves (56-55) vs. Washington Nationals (50-61)

O/U: 8.5 | ATL -220 | WSH + 180

Max Fried (THE BAT's No. 48 SP) vs. Patrick Corbin (THE BAT's No. 112 SP)

Jeremie Rehak (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 21 in MLB)

Truist Park (No. 15 Runs | No. 21 HR | No. 23 K)

84 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

2 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Max Fried's fastball (93.4 mph) has been nearly a full mph faster than it was last season

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Max Fried (52% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with five Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Thus far in 2021, Patrick Corbin's fastball (91.5 mph) has been 1.9 mph faster than it was last season

·  Patrick Corbin's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  The Braves have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 6 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.322 wOBA going forward

·  Atlanta boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 1 most in MLB (Adam Duvall, Austin Riley, Jorge Soler, Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson)

·  According to THE BAT X, the Nationals and their 0.323 wOBA have been the No. 1 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  The Washington Nationals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 63-44 resulting in + 15.00 Units (12% ROI)

·  This season the Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 59-42 resulting in + 8.59 Units (7% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Max Fried's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+ 115/-150)

Milwaukee Brewers (66-45) vs. San Francisco Giants (70-41)

O/U: 9.0 | MIL -115 | SF -105

Brett Anderson (THE BAT's No. 206 SP) vs. Johnny Cueto (THE BAT's No. 158 SP)

Ron Kulpa (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 3 in MLB)

American Family Field (No. 18 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

86 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

13 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are least effective against Fly ball hitters, Brett Anderson (57% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with four Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Brett Anderson has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.67 ERA is 0.77 points below his 4.44 FIP

·  Johnny Cueto's slider usage (24% in 2021, 8% in 2020) has increased 16% this season

·  Johnny Cueto is throwing a curveball 19% less often this season (2% usage) than he did last season (21% usage)

·  The Brewers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.307 wOBA going forward

·  The Brewers offense is quite fast; they have the No. 5 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Tyrone Taylor, Willy Adames, Avisail Garcia)

·  According to THE BAT X, the Giants and their 0.327 wOBA have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Giants offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Alex Dickerson, Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Giants Moneyline has 44% of the cash, but the it's dropped from + 110 to -105 resulting in reverse line movement

·  There is two-way action on the Moneyline as 64% of the bet tickets are on the Giants, but 56% of the cash is on the Brewers

·  The OVER has 88% of the cash and 52% of the bet tickets resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The most profitable market for the San Francisco Giants has been their Run Line which is 70-41 generating + 34.40 Units (25% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Milwaukee Brewers has been their Run Line which is 61-50 generating + 13.75 Units (10% ROI)

·  Johnny Cueto's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.0 Strikeouts (+ 100/-130) is the most popular prop for the game

San Diego Padres (63-49) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (35-77)

O/U: 8.5 | SD -230 | ARI + 190

Blake Snell (THE BAT's No. 84 SP) vs. Madison Bumgarner (THE BAT's No. 321 SP)

Roberto Ortiz (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 12 in MLB)

Petco Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 20 HR | No. 10 K)

72 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

8 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Blake Snell's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  Madison Bumgarner (90.2 mph) has added 2.3 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Madison Bumgarner (39% FB% since 2019) projects to face three Ground ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Fly ball pitchers perform worst against Ground ball hitters

·  The Padres are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.6% according to THE BAT X

·  The Padres have five players (Victor Caratini, Ha-seong Kim, Tommy Pham, Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 77% of the bet tickets and 68% of the cash is on the Padres

·  The San Diego Padres Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 61-48 resulting in + 8.95 Units (7% ROI)

·  This season the D-Backs Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 60-49 resulting in + 6.55 Units (5% ROI)

·  Manny Machado's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 195/-285)

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