MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. ATL - Ian Anderson (No. 31 out of 343)

2. NYY - Jordan Montgomery (No. 44)

3. CWS - Dylan Cease (No. 50)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Spenser Watkins (No. 341 out of 343)

2. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 289)

3. CLE - Eli Morgan (No. 267)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TOR at DET - Phil Cuzzi (No. 3 out of 111)

2. NYY at OAK - Nestor Ceja (No. 14)

3. HOU at TEX - CB Bucknor (No. 15)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CIN at MIA - Edwin Moscoso (No. 2 out of 111)

2. COL at LAD - Sam Holbrook (No. 4)

3. KC at SEA - John Libka (No. 7)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CHC at CWS (88 degrees)

2. TOR at DET (88 degrees)

3. COL at LAD (87 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. HOU at TEX (70 degrees)

2. CIN at MIA (72 degrees)

3. MIL at MIN (74 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 6.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -100

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Red Sox at Indians

Projected: 11.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  Rays at Orioles

Projected: 10.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

·  Brewers at Twins

Projected: 10.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Nationals at Mets

Projected: 7.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  Reds at Marlins

Projected: 7.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  D-Backs at Phillies

Projected: 8.11 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Pittsburgh Pirates (47-83) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (66-62)

O/U: 8.5 | PIT + 155 | STL -170

Wil Crowe (THE BAT's No. 289 SP) vs. Kwang-hyun Kim (THE BAT's No. 184 SP)

PNC Park (No. 19 Runs | No. 26 HR | No. 25 K)

83 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

5 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kwang Hyun Kim may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 49 pitches

·  Kwang Hyun Kim's fastball velocity (88.4 mph) has been down nearly a full mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  Kwang Hyun Kim is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his huge platoon split

·  So far in 2021, Kwang Hyun Kim has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.27 ERA despite a 4.24 FIP

·  THE BAT X projects the Pirates (No. 7 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.292 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  According to THE BAT X, the Cardinals and their 0.304 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Cardinals have three players (Dylan Carlson, Paul DeJong, Nolan Arenado) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 70% of the bet tickets and 76% of the cash is on the Cardinals

·  The Cardinals Run Line has 88% of the cash and 52% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

Detroit Tigers (62-68) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (67-61)

O/U: 9.5 | DET + 140 | TOR -160

Matthew Boyd (THE BAT's No. 102 SP) vs. Jose Berrios (THE BAT's No. 59 SP)

Phil Cuzzi (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 3 in MLB)

Comerica Park (No. 22 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

88 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

11 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Matthew Boyd may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 71 pitches

·  Matthew Boyd has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against eight opposite-handed hitters today

·  Matthew Boyd's 3.44 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.19 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  THE BAT X views the Tigers as the No. 4 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Tigers offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jonathan Schoop, Willi Castro, Eric Haase, Miguel Cabrera)

·  The Blue Jays are the No. 2 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 19.9% according to THE BAT X

·  The Blue Jays offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has two-way action as 61% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 46% of the cash is on the OVER

·  Jose Berrios' Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)

Texas Rangers (44-85) vs. Houston Astros (77-52)

O/U: 8.5 | TEX + 180 | HOU -220

Taylor Hearn (THE BAT's No. 212 SP) vs. Zack Greinke (THE BAT's No. 79 SP)

CB Bucknor (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 15 in MLB)

Globe Life Field (No. 21 Runs | No. 18 HR | No. 21 K)

70 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Taylor Hearn has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.08 ERA is 0.89 points below his 4.97 FIP

·  Zack Greinke's fastball (88.3 mph) is nearly a full mph faster than it was in 2020

·  Zack Greinke's fastball (2225 rpm) has lost nearly 100 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Zack Greinke's sinker usage (6% in 2021, 19% in 2020) has decreased 13% this season

·  Zack Greinke's changeup usage (22% in 2021, 9% in 2020) has increased 13% this season

·  Zack Greinke has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  The Houston Astros' 18.7 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the least on today's slate of games

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.335 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  Houston boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher xwOBA this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Aledmys Diaz, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has 79% of the bet tickets on the Astros, but 58% of the cash is on the Rangers resulting in two-way action

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 83% of the bet tickets and 83% of the cash is on the Astros

·  Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 350/-685) is the most popular prop for the game

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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