MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. HOU - Framber Valdez (No. 35 out of 337)

2. SF - Logan Webb (No. 37)

3. MIA - Sandy Alcantara (No. 39)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. DET - Drew Hutchison (No. 332 out of 337)

2. WSH - Sean Nolin (No. 317)

3. CIN - Vladimir Gutierrez (No. 281)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. ARI at COL - Ryan Blakney (No. 9 out of 111)

2. LAA at CLE - Dan Bellino (No. 10)

3. SEA at HOU - Brian Gorman (No. 22)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. MIA at CIN - Junior Valentine (No. 11 out of 111)

2. ATL at BAL - Adam Beck (No. 22)

3. WSH at MIL - Jordan Baker (No. 27)

Today's Hottest Games

1. ARI at COL (89 degrees)

2. MIA at CIN (87 degrees)

3. PIT at STL (85 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SF at OAK (65 degrees)

2. CWS at TB (72 degrees)

3. SEA at HOU (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -125

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -135

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -135

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at Yankees

Projected: 11.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O + 100

·  D-Backs at Rockies

Projected: 11.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -115

·  Braves at Orioles

Projected: 10.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Royals at Cubs

Projected: 7.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

·  Mariners at Astros

Projected: 8.19 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

·  Pirates at Cardinals

Projected: 8.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Baltimore Orioles (38-84) vs. Atlanta Braves (67-56)

O/U: 9.5 | BAL + 140 | ATL -160

John Means (THE BAT's No. 79 SP) vs. Touki Toussaint (THE BAT's No. 157 SP)

Adam Beck (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 22 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 6 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

81 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

4 mph in from CF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, John Means' fastball (92.1 mph) has been 1.3 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (43% FB% since 2019), John Means may not be a great fit for the No. 3 HR in baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards, today

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are most effective against Fly ball hitters, John Means (43% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  John Means' 3.44 ERA is 1.34 points better than his 4.78 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Orioles offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Maikel Franco, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino)

·  The Braves have five players (Dansby Swanson, Adam Duvall, Austin Riley, Jorge Soler, Freddie Freeman) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 10.0 Runs and is now 9.5 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 71% of the bet tickets and 82% of the cash is on the Braves

·  The Braves Moneyline has 75% of the bet tickets and 68% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  Freddie Freeman's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 375/-760) is the most popular prop for the game

Houston Astros (73-50) vs. Seattle Mariners (66-58)

O/U: 8.5 | HOU -190 | SEA + 165

Framber Valdez (THE BAT's No. 35 SP) vs. Tyler Anderson (THE BAT's No. 175 SP)

Brian Gorman (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 22 in MLB)

Minute Maid Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Framber Valdez (91.8 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Framber Valdez is throwing a sinker 12% less often this season (44% usage) than he did last season (56% usage)

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are least effective against Fly ball hitters, Framber Valdez (65% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  So far in 2021, Framber Valdez has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.16 ERA despite a 3.89 FIP

·  The Houston Astros's 19.6 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the least on today's slate of games

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.335 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Mariners are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.3% according to THE BAT X

·  The Mariners' 0.297 team wOBA makes them the No. 7 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Mariners have four players (Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy, Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Run Line for the Houston Astros was -1.5 (+ 105), but is now -1.5 (-105) after it steamed 10 cents

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 83% of the bet tickets and 89% of the cash is on the Astros

·  The Astros Run Line has 80% of the bet tickets and 82% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  Framber Valdez's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+ 110) is the most popular prop for the game

Los Angeles Dodgers (78-46) vs. New York Mets (60-63)

O/U: 8.5 | LAD -180 | NYM + 160

David Price (THE BAT's No. 121 SP) vs. Marcus Stroman (THE BAT's No. 48 SP)

David Rackley (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 42 in MLB)

Dodger Stadium (No. 10 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

74 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

8 mph out to RF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  David Price's 3.62 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.24 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  Dodger Stadium is baseball's No. 6 best park for home runs, but Marcus Stroman's ground ball-heavy skillset (53% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are least effective against Fly ball hitters, Marcus Stroman (53% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with four Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  The Dodgers' 0.329 team wOBA makes them the No. 2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 8 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Corey Seager)

·  THE BAT X projects the Mets (No. 6 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.302 wOBA) thus far in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Mets Moneyline has steamed 20 cents as it opened at + 180 and is now + 160

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  The Game Total has 51% of the bet tickets on the UNDER, but 14% of the cash is on the OVER resulting in two-way action

·  The most popular prop for the game is Marcus Stroman's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+ 110)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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