This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.
Today's Best Starting Pitchers
1. HOU - Framber Valdez (No. 35 out of 337)
2. SF - Logan Webb (No. 37)
3. MIA - Sandy Alcantara (No. 39)
Today's Worst Starting Pitchers
1. DET - Drew Hutchison (No. 332 out of 337)
2. WSH - Sean Nolin (No. 317)
3. CIN - Vladimir Gutierrez (No. 281)
Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires
1. ARI at COL - Ryan Blakney (No. 9 out of 111)
2. LAA at CLE - Dan Bellino (No. 10)
3. SEA at HOU - Brian Gorman (No. 22)
Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires
1. MIA at CIN - Junior Valentine (No. 11 out of 111)
2. ATL at BAL - Adam Beck (No. 22)
3. WSH at MIL - Jordan Baker (No. 27)
Today's Hottest Games
1. ARI at COL (89 degrees)
2. MIA at CIN (87 degrees)
3. PIT at STL (85 degrees)
Today's Coldest Games
1. SF at OAK (65 degrees)
2. CWS at TB (72 degrees)
3. SEA at HOU (72 degrees)
THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals
· New York Yankees
Projected: 6.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -125
· Toronto Blue Jays
Projected: 5.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -135
· Colorado Rockies
Projected: 5.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 100
THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals
· Seattle Mariners
Projected: 3.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105
· Chicago Cubs
Projected: 3.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -135
· Washington Nationals
Projected: 3.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105
THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals
· Twins at Yankees
Projected: 11.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O + 100
· D-Backs at Rockies
Projected: 11.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -115
· Braves at Orioles
Projected: 10.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115
THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals
· Royals at Cubs
Projected: 7.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115
· Mariners at Astros
Projected: 8.19 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120
· Pirates at Cardinals
Projected: 8.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110
GAMES OF THE DAY
Baltimore Orioles (38-84) vs. Atlanta Braves (67-56)
O/U: 9.5 | BAL + 140 | ATL -160
John Means (THE BAT's No. 79 SP) vs. Touki Toussaint (THE BAT's No. 157 SP)
Adam Beck (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 22 in MLB)
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 6 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)
81 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)
4 mph in from CF (No. 4 strongest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· This season, John Means' fastball (92.1 mph) has been 1.3 mph slower than it was in 2020
· As an extreme fly ball pitcher (43% FB% since 2019), John Means may not be a great fit for the No. 3 HR in baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards, today
· Given that Fly ball pitchers are most effective against Fly ball hitters, John Means (43% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup
· John Means' 3.44 ERA is 1.34 points better than his 4.78 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season
· The Orioles offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Maikel Franco, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino)
· The Braves have five players (Dansby Swanson, Adam Duvall, Austin Riley, Jorge Soler, Freddie Freeman) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB
BETTING INSIGHTS
· There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 10.0 Runs and is now 9.5 Runs
· There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 71% of the bet tickets and 82% of the cash is on the Braves
· The Braves Moneyline has 75% of the bet tickets and 68% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle
· Freddie Freeman's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 375/-760) is the most popular prop for the game
Houston Astros (73-50) vs. Seattle Mariners (66-58)
O/U: 8.5 | HOU -190 | SEA + 165
Framber Valdez (THE BAT's No. 35 SP) vs. Tyler Anderson (THE BAT's No. 175 SP)
Brian Gorman (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 22 in MLB)
Minute Maid Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)
72 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)
Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Framber Valdez (91.8 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021
· Framber Valdez is throwing a sinker 12% less often this season (44% usage) than he did last season (56% usage)
· Given that Ground ball pitchers are least effective against Fly ball hitters, Framber Valdez (65% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup
· So far in 2021, Framber Valdez has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.16 ERA despite a 3.89 FIP
· The Houston Astros's 19.6 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the least on today's slate of games
· According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.335 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021
· The Mariners are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.3% according to THE BAT X
· The Mariners' 0.297 team wOBA makes them the No. 7 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections
· The Mariners have four players (Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy, Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB
BETTING INSIGHTS
· The opening Run Line for the Houston Astros was -1.5 (+ 105), but is now -1.5 (-105) after it steamed 10 cents
· The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs
· There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 83% of the bet tickets and 89% of the cash is on the Astros
· The Astros Run Line has 80% of the bet tickets and 82% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle
· Framber Valdez's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+ 110) is the most popular prop for the game
Los Angeles Dodgers (78-46) vs. New York Mets (60-63)
O/U: 8.5 | LAD -180 | NYM + 160
David Price (THE BAT's No. 121 SP) vs. Marcus Stroman (THE BAT's No. 48 SP)
David Rackley (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 42 in MLB)
Dodger Stadium (No. 10 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)
74 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)
8 mph out to RF (No. 2 strongest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· David Price's 3.62 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.24 projected ERA from THE BAT
· Dodger Stadium is baseball's No. 6 best park for home runs, but Marcus Stroman's ground ball-heavy skillset (53% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball
· Given that Ground ball pitchers are least effective against Fly ball hitters, Marcus Stroman (53% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with four Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup
· The Dodgers' 0.329 team wOBA makes them the No. 2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections
· The Dodgers offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 8 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Corey Seager)
· THE BAT X projects the Mets (No. 6 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.302 wOBA) thus far in 2021
BETTING INSIGHTS
· The Mets Moneyline has steamed 20 cents as it opened at + 180 and is now + 160
· There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs
· The Game Total has 51% of the bet tickets on the UNDER, but 14% of the cash is on the OVER resulting in two-way action
· The most popular prop for the game is Marcus Stroman's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+ 110)