MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. LAD - Max Scherzer (No. 6 out of 338)

2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 11)

3. OAK - Sean Manaea (No. 17)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 326 out of 338)

2. MIN - Charlie Barnes (No. 315)

3. STL - J.A. Happ (No. 237)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. NYY at CWS - Mike Estabrook (No. 1 out of 111)

2. COL at SF - Doug Eddings (No. 4)

3. CHC at MIA - Tripp Gibson (No. 8)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CLE at DET - Edwin Moscoso (No. 2 out of 111)

2. SD at ARI - John Libka (No. 9)

3. STL at KC - James Hoye (No. 15)

Today's Hottest Games

1. TB at MIN (83 degrees)

2. HOU at LAA (82 degrees)

3. LAD at NYM (81 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. COL at SF (63 degrees)

2. OAK at TEX (70 degrees)

3. MIL at PIT (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 6.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 110

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Rays at Twins

Projected: 11.12 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

·  Braves at Nationals

Projected: 9.77 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

·  Cardinals at Royals

Projected: 9.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Cubs at Marlins

Projected: 6.57 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

·  Brewers at Pirates

Projected: 7.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

·  Reds at Phillies

Projected: 7.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Boston Red Sox (68-51) vs. Baltimore Orioles (38-77)

O/U: 10.0 | BOS -300 | BAL + 250

Eduardo Rodriguez (THE BAT's No. 21 SP) vs. Keegan Akin (THE BAT's No. 231 SP)

Greg Gibson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 30 in MLB)

Fenway Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 16 HR | No. 18 K)

76 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

7 mph in from LF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Keegan Akin may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 83 pitches

·  Keegan Akin has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against six opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Red Sox have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.326 wOBA going forward

·  The Red Sox offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Bobby Dalbec, Kyle Schwarber, Hunter Renfroe, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez)

·  Baltimore boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Anthony Santander, Pedro Severino, Maikel Franco, Trey Mancini)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 10.5 Runs, but is now 10 as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  The OVER has 79% of the bet tickets and 58% of the cash making it the most lopsided Game Total on the slate

·  The Red Sox Run Line has 81% of the bet tickets and 80% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 78% of the bet tickets and 74% of the cash on the Red Sox

·  The most popular prop for the game is Rafael Devers' Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 345/-670)

Seattle Mariners (63-55) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (62-54)

O/U: 8.5 | SEA -105 | TOR -115

Logan Gilbert (THE BAT's No. 73 SP) vs. Steven Matz (THE BAT's No. 98 SP)

T-Mobile Park (No. 26 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

76 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

6 mph out to LF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Logan Gilbert may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 8 best home run park in baseball (T-Mobile Park) given his fly ball tendencies (37% FB% since 2019)

·  Despite a 3.31 FIP, Logan Gilbert's unlucky ERA has been 0.74 points worse at 4.05

·  The Mariners offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy, Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager)

·  The Blue Jays (21.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Blue Jays offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total UNDER opened at 9.0 Runs (+ 100), but is now UNDER 8.5 (-115) and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  The Mariners Moneyline has 18% of the cash, but the it's dropped from + 100 to -105 resulting in reverse line movement

·  The Blue Jays Moneyline has 82% of the cash and 60% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  George Springer's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 165/-235) is the most popular prop for the game

New York Mets (59-57) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (71-46)

O/U: 7.5 | NYM + 150 | LAD -165

Carlos Carrasco (THE BAT's No. 144 SP) vs. Max Scherzer (THE BAT's No. 6 SP)

Pat Hoberg (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 33 in MLB)

Citi Field (No. 29 Runs | No. 15 HR | No. 4 K)

81 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

4 mph in from RF (No. 6 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Carlos Carrasco may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 77 pitches

·  Carlos Carrasco's spin rate (2178 rpm) has decreased by 292 rpm in 2021

·  Carlos Carrasco's fastball usage (24% in 2021, 35% in 2020) has decreased 11% this season

·  Carlos Carrasco's sinker usage (27% in 2021, 5% in 2020) has increased 22% this season

·  Carlos Carrasco is throwing a changeup 10% less often this season (18% usage) than he did last season (28% usage)

·  Max Scherzer (36% FB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Fly ball pitchers perform worst against Ground ball hitters

·  Max Scherzer has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.67 ERA is 0.79 points below his 3.46 FIP

·  The Dodgers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.328 wOBA going forward

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 7.5 Runs

·  The Mets Run Line has steamed 10 cents as it opened at + 1.5 (-110) and is now + 1.5 (-120)

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 70% of the bet tickets and 95% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 74% of the bet tickets and 88% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  Max Muncy's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 350/-690) is the most popular prop for the game

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