MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16434163

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 13 out of 340)

2. LAD - Julio Urias (No. 26)

3. NYY - Jordan Montgomery (No. 35)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Spenser Watkins (No. 337 out of 340)

2. CIN - Vladimir Gutierrez (No. 320)

3. SD - Reiss Knehr (No. 312)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. NYY at MIA - Jeremy Riggs (No. 14 out of 110)

2. MIL at ATL - Roberto Ortiz (No. 15)

3. SEA at TEX - Dan Merzel (No. 18)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CLE at CWS - Sam Holbrook (No. 7 out of 110)

2. OAK at LAA - Adam Beck (No. 14)

3. LAD at ARI - Greg Gibson (No. 22)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at ATL (87 degrees)

2. OAK at LAA (83 degrees)

3. MIN at STL (80 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. HOU at SF (63 degrees)

2. SEA at TEX (70 degrees)

3. KC at TOR (71 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.19 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 5.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -105

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 5.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 2.87 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -135

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 3.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Orioles at Tigers

Projected: 10.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  Athletics at Angels

Projected: 10.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Indians at White Sox

Projected: 9.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Yankees at Marlins

Projected: 6.76 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -115

·  Cubs at Nationals

Projected: 8.35 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

·  Astros at Giants

Projected: 8.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Detroit Tigers (50-57) vs. Baltimore Orioles (37-66)

O/U: 10.0 | DET -135 | BAL 115

Tyler Alexander (THE BAT's No. 309 SP) vs. Spenser Watkins (THE BAT's No. 336 SP)

Comerica Park (No. 22 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

75 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

11 mph out to CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tyler Alexander has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against eight opposite-handed hitters today

·  Spenser Watkins' fly ball nature (44% FB% since 2019) should play well in Comerica Park (No. 3 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are most effective against Fly ball hitters, Spenser Watkins (44% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Spenser Watkins' 3.10 ERA is 1.48 points better than his 4.58 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Tigers are the No. 2 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 27.4% according to THE BAT X

·  Strikeouts against Detroit may be easy to come by today, as three players (Eric Haase, Grayson Greiner, Zack Short) project for a 30% underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Tigers (0.308 wOBA) have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  Baltimore boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB (Pedro Severino, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the OVER after the Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 10.0 Runs

·  There is reverse line movement as only 10% of the cash is on the Baltimore Orioles, but their Moneyline has dropped from 125 to 115

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 80% of the bet tickets and 90% of the cash is on the Tigers

·  The Game Total has lopsided action today with 82% of the cash and 52% of the bet tickets on the OVER

·  Spenser Watkins' Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/ 105)

St. Louis Cardinals (52-52) vs. Minnesota Twins (44-61)

O/U: 8.0 | STL -160 | MIN 140

Adam Wainwright (THE BAT's No. 142 SP) vs. Michael Pineda (THE BAT's No. 213 SP)

Nick Mahrley (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 26 in MLB)

Busch Stadium (No. 25 Runs | No. 24 HR | No. 27 K)

80 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Adam Wainwright's 3.51 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.41 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Cardinals offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong)

·  The Twins are the No. 4 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.9% according to THE BAT X

·  Strikeouts against Minnesota may be easy to come by today, as five players (Michael Pineda, Ryan Jeffers, Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach, Miguel Sano) project for a 30% underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Twins and their 0.321 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Twins offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson, Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline opening price of -140 has steamed 20 cents and is now -160

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 8.0 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 83% of the bet tickets and 87% of the cash is on the Cardinals

·  Josh Donaldson's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 270/-460)

Arizona Diamondbacks (33-72) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (63-43)

O/U: 9.5 | ARI 205 | LAD -245

Caleb Smith (THE BAT's No. 202 SP) vs. Julio Urias (THE BAT's No. 26 SP)

Greg Gibson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 22 in MLB)

Chase Field (No. 11 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

78 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Caleb Smith's fly ball nature (48% FB% since 2019) should play well in Chase Field (No. 2 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are most effective against Fly ball hitters, Caleb Smith (48% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Julio Urias has been throwing a curveball (11% increase) far more often in 2021 (33% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  Julio Urias' reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  Strikeouts against Arizona may be easy to come by today, as three players (Caleb Smith, Josh VanMeter, Andy Young) project for a 30% underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Dodgers (22.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  THE BAT X projects the Dodgers (No. 2 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.326 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Dodgers have four players (Albert Pujols, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Will Smith) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This game has the most lopsided Run Line today as 98% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 69% of the bet tickets and 89% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The OVER has 73% of the bet tickets and 51% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  Justin Turner's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 305/-545) is the most popular prop for the game

 

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

A Numbers Game: Pay attention to stats and trends that are completely lopsided. For example, Matt Rhule and the Panthers are 1-25 straight up when allowing their opponent to score 17 or more points.

Follow The Money: Be aware of Miami's backloaded schedule when betting either side of their 11.5 win total. In December: at SF, at LAC, at BUF, vs GB.

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Adam Burke: Washington -2.5 vs UCLA

Pauly Howard: Golden Knights Under 97 points for the season.

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-09-29_at_5.10.08_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close