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MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16829272

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 14 out of 348)

2. LAD - Julio Urias (No. 18)

3. LAA - Shohei Ohtani (No. 20)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Josh Rogers (No. 339 out of 348)

2. STL - Jake Woodford (No. 312)

3. ARI - Humberto Mejia (No. 311)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. STL at CHC - Bill Miller (No. 5 out of 111)

2. TOR at MIN - Jeremie Rehak (No. 16)

3. NYM at MIL - Cory Blaser (No. 28)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. LAD at ARI - Gerry Davis (No. 8 out of 111)

2. SF at COL - Shane Livensparger (No. 9)

3. HOU at OAK - Jerry Meals (No. 15)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SF at COL (88 degrees)

2. LAD at ARI (76 degrees)

3. NYM at MIL (74 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. HOU at OAK (58 degrees)

2. KC at DET (63 degrees)

3. NYY at BOS (65 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 6.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -100

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 5.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -120

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 3.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Giants at Rockies

Projected: 11.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -105

·  Yankees at Red Sox

Projected: 10.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  Cardinals at Cubs

Projected: 10.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rangers at Orioles

Projected: 7.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

·  Marlins at Rays

Projected: 8.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

·  Mets at Brewers

Projected: 8.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Baltimore Orioles (50-105) vs. Texas Rangers (56-99)

O/U: 8.5 | BAL -135 | TEX + 115

John Means (THE BAT's No. 61 SP) vs. Dane Dunning (THE BAT's No. 78 SP)

Charlie Ramos (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 37 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 4 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

69 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

11 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, John Means' fastball (92.2 mph) has been 1.2 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  John Means may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 2 best home run park in baseball (Oriole Park at Camden Yards) given his fly ball tendencies (43 percent FB PERCENTAGE since 2019)

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are least effective against Ground ball hitters, John Means (43 percent FB PERCENTAGE since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with four Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Dane Dunning may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 72 pitches

·  Dane Dunning is throwing a fastball 22 percent less often this season (0 percent usage) than he did last season (22 percent usage)

·  Dane Dunning has been throwing a sinker (14 percent increase) far more often in 2021 (53 percent usage) than he did in 2020 (39 percent usage)

·  Oriole Park at Camden Yards is baseball's No. 2 best park for home runs, but Dane Dunning's ground ball-heavy skillset (51 percent GB PERCENTAGE since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Dane Dunning (51 percent GB PERCENTAGE since 2019) is well-situated today with three Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Despite a 3.84 FIP, Dane Dunning's unlucky ERA has been 0.50 points worse at 4.34

·  The Orioles offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino)

·  The projected lineup for the Rangers holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Leody Taveras, DJ Peters, Adolis Garcia. THE BAT projects all for a Leody Taveras, DJ Peters, Adolis Garcia+ underlying K percent

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Orioles was -125, but is now -135 after it steamed 10 cents

·  The UNDER has 83 percent of the cash and 56 percent of the bet tickets resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The Baltimore Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 81-68 resulting in + 4.88 Units (3 percent ROI)

·  John Means's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 115/-150)

Milwaukee Brewers (93-62) vs. New York Mets (73-81)

O/U: 8.0 | MIL -165 | NYM + 150

Freddy Peralta (THE BAT's No. 14 SP) vs. Carlos Carrasco (THE BAT's No. 144 SP)

Cory Blaser (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 28 in MLB)

American Family Field (No. 10 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

74 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

14 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Freddy Peralta may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 10 best home run park in baseball (American Family Field) given his fly ball tendencies (41 percent FB PERCENTAGE since 2019)

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are least effective against Ground ball hitters, Freddy Peralta (41 percent FB PERCENTAGE since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  While THE BAT projects Freddy Peralta's ERA going forward to be 3.39, his actual has been 2.65 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Carlos Carrasco's spin rate (2249 rpm) has decreased by 221 rpm in 2021

·  THE BAT X views the Brewers as the No. 7 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  New York boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher xwOBA this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has two-way action as 69 percent of the bet tickets are on the Brewers, but 60 percent of the cash is on the Mets

·  The Milwaukee Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 82-69 resulting in + 16.25 Units (9 percent ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the New York Mets has been their Game Total Under which is 81-59 generating + 15.70 Units (9 percent ROI)

·  Freddy Peralta's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+ 110/-145)

Arizona Diamondbacks (50-105) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (99-56)

O/U: 9.0 | ARI + 235 | LAD -275

Humberto Mejia (THE BAT's No. 311 SP) vs. Julio Urias (THE BAT's No. 18 SP)

Gerry Davis (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 8 in MLB)

Chase Field (No. 13 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

76 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

8 mph in from CF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Humberto Mejia's fly ball nature (31 percent FB PERCENTAGE since 2019) should play well in Chase Field (No. 2 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are most effective against Fly ball hitters, Humberto Mejia (31 percent FB PERCENTAGE since 2019) is well-situated today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Julio Urias has been throwing a curveball (12 percent increase) far more often in 2021 (34 percent usage) than he did in 2020 (22 percent usage)

·  Julio Urias' reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  The Dodgers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.324 wOBA going forward

·  The Dodgers have four players (Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Corey Seager) with a Barrel percent in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Dodgers Moneyline has 79 percent of the bet tickets and 98 percent of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Dodgers Run Line has 79 percent of the bet tickets and 95 percent of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Arizona Diamondbacks Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 81-62 resulting in + 13.20 Units (8 percent ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Dodgers has been their Game Total Under which is 76-65 generating + 4.90 Units (3 percent ROI)

·  Mookie Betts' Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 330/-615) is the most popular prop for the game

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