MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Sunday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. BOS - Chris Sale (No. 9 out of 355)

2. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 10)

3. SF - Logan Webb (No. 12)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. ARI - Humberto Mejia (No. 329 out of 355)

2. SD - Reiss Knehr (No. 326)

3. MIN - Charlie Barnes (No. 324)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. MIL at LAD - Adam Hamari (No. 16 out of 111)

2. DET at CWS - Ben May (No. 17)

3. NYM at ATL - Gabe Morales (No. 24)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. PHI at MIA - Alfonso Marquez (No. 1 out of 111)

2. CLE at TEX - Edwin Moscoso (No. 3)

3. BAL at TOR - Mark Wegner (No. 4)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at LAD (92 degrees)

2. COL at ARI (78 degrees)

3. TB at NYY (77 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAA at SEA (55 degrees)

2. BAL at TOR (63 degrees)

3. CIN at PIT (66 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 6.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 105

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -110

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -120

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -135

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Rays at Yankees

Projected: 10.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

·  Twins at Royals

Projected: 10.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  Orioles at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.09 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Angels at Mariners

Projected: 7.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Phillies at Marlins

Projected: 7.63 runs

·  Cubs at Cardinals

Projected: 7.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

New York Yankees (91-70) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (100-61)

O/U: 9.0 | NYY -135 | TB + 115

Jameson Taillon (THE BAT's No. 63 SP) vs. Michael Wacha (THE BAT's No. 135 SP)

Yankee Stadium (No. 10 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

77 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

6 mph out to LF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jameson Taillon may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 53 pitches

·  Michael Wacha has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  The Yankees have four players (Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton) with a Barrel percentage in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Rays' 0.321 team wOBA makes them the No. 6 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Rays have three players (Mike Zunino, Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle percentage in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs, but is now 9.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  There is reverse line movement on the Rays Moneyline as it's dropped from + 135 to + 115 despite only getting 29 percent of the cash

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 71 percent of the cash and 53 percent of the bet tickets is on the Yankees

·  The most profitable market for the Tampa Bay Rays has been their Run Line which is 92-63 generating + 25.35 Units (13 percent ROI)

·  The New York Yankees Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 86-63 resulting in + 17.55 Units (10 percent ROI)

·  Jameson Taillon's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)

San Francisco Giants (106-55) vs. San Diego Padres (79-82)

O/U: 9.0 | SF -220 | SD + 180

Logan Webb (THE BAT's No. 12 SP) vs. Reiss Knehr (THE BAT's No. 326 SP)

Oracle Park (No. 19 Runs | No. 27 HR | No. 11 K)

73 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

3 mph out to RF (No. 7 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Logan Webb's fastball usage (10 percent in 2021, 33 percent in 2020) has decreased 23 percent this season

·  Logan Webb has been throwing a sinker (25 percent increase) far more often in 2021 (38 percent usage) than he did in 2020 (13 percent usage)

·  Logan Webb's slider usage (28 percent in 2021, 16 percent in 2020) has increased 12 percent this season

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Logan Webb (57 percent GB percent since 2019) is well-situated today with three Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Logan Webb's 2.87 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.44 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Giants offense has the No. 3 (tie) most hitters in baseball with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or better this year (Austin Slater, Darin Ruf, Brandon Crawford, Alex Dickerson, Kris Bryant)

·  The Padres (0.313 wOBA) have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Padres' 0.313 team wOBA makes them the No. 2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Padres offense is quite fast; they have the No. 1 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Wil Myers, Fernando Tatis Jr., Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The San Francisco Giants Moneyline is showing the most line movement today as it opened at -170 before dropping to -220

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 66 percent of the cash and 59 percent of the bet tickets on the Giants

·  The San Francisco Giants Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 103-53 resulting in + 39.10 Units (18 percent ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the San Diego Padres has been their Team Total Under which is 85-69 generating + 8.73 Units (5 percent ROI)

·  Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 280/-475)

Houston Astros (94-67) vs. Oakland Athletics (86-75)

O/U: 9.0 | HOU -165 | OAK + 150

Jose Urquidy (THE BAT's No. 103 SP) vs. Cole Irvin (THE BAT's No. 180 SP)

Mike Muchlinski (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 32 in MLB)

Minute Maid Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform better against Fly ball hitters, and Jose Urquidy (39 percent FB percentage since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  Jose Urquidy is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  Jose Urquidy's 3.56 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.26 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Houston Astros's 18.0 projected K percentage (via THE BAT) is the least on today's slate of games

·  The Astros have four players (Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Athletics offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel percentage in the 75th percentile or better this year (Sean Murphy, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Seth Brown)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Oakland Athletics Moneyline opening price of + 165 has steamed 15 cents and is now + 150

·  The Houston Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 82-65 resulting in + 10.60 Units (6 percent ROI)

·  The Oakland Athletics Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 81-79 resulting in + 2.45 Units (1 percent ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 315/-570)

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