MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 3 out of 299)

2. CLE - Shane Bieber (No. 4)

3. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 18)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Jon Lester (No. 276 out of 299)

2. BAL - Bruce Zimmermann (No. 264)

3. NYM - Jordan Yamamoto (No. 254)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. MIL at CIN - Ron Kulpa (No. 1 out of 110)

2. MIN at CLE - Adam Hamari (No. 4)

3. CHC at STL - Phil Cuzzi (No. 5)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. NYM at MIA - Alfonso Marquez (No. 1 out of 110)

2. PIT at ATL - Sam Holbrook (No. 8)

3. LAD at SF - Ramon De Jesus (No. 22)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CWS at NYY (86 degrees)

2. MIL at CIN (86 degrees)

3. BAL at WSH (85 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAD at SF (57 degrees)

2. SEA at SD (63 degrees)

3. OAK at LAA (65 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 5.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 5.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.50 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

 

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.26 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 115

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.59 runs

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  D-Backs at Rockies

Projected: 11.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -115

·  Orioles at Nationals

Projected: 10.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

·  Rays at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.11 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Marlins

Projected: 7.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Mariners at Padres

Projected: 7.76 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Dodgers at Giants

Projected: 7.99 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Colorado Rockies (16-29) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (18-28)

O/U: 11 | COL + 100 | ARI -120

Antonio Senzatela (THE BAT's No. 173 SP) vs. Madison Bumgarner (THE BAT's No. 195 SP)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

72 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

9 mph in from RF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Antonio Senzatela has been throwing a slider (13% increase) far more often in 2021 (38% usage) than he did in 2020 (25% usage)

·  Coors Field is baseball's No. 10 best park for home runs, but Antonio Senzatela's groundball-heavy skillset (53% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Thus far in 2021, Madison Bumgarner's fastball (90.3 mph) has been 2.4 mph faster than it was last season

·  The spin rate on Madison Bumgarner's fastball (2499 rpm) has increased by 104 rpm in 2021

·  As an extreme flyball pitcher (38% FB% since 2019), Madison Bumgarner may not be a great fit for the No. 10 HR in baseball, Coors Field, today

·  Madison Bumgarner's 4.15 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.67 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Rockies offense is quite fast; they have the No. 3 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story)

·  The D-Backs (21.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the D-Backs was -110, but is now -120 after it steamed 10 cents

·  The Game Total has lopsided action today with 72% of the cash and 58% of the bet tickets on the OVER

·  The Colorado Rockies Team Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 21-17 resulting in + 0.43 Units (1% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Madison Bumgarner's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 115/-150)

Cincinnati Reds (20-23) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (21-23)

O/U: 8.5 | CIN -145 | MIL + 125

Sonny Gray (THE BAT's No. 21 SP) vs. Brett Anderson (THE BAT's No. 211 SP)

Ron Kulpa (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 1 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

86 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

7 mph out to LF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Sonny Gray's ability to keep the ball on the ground (52% GB% since 2019) should help him in Great American Ball Park (No. 1 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Groundball pitchers tend to perform better against Flyball hitters, and Sonny Gray (52% GB% since 2019) is projected to face 3 of them today

·  Brett Anderson's ability to keep the ball on the ground (56% GB% since 2019) should help him in Great American Ball Park (No. 1 best HR park in MLB) today

·  So far in 2021, Brett Anderson has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 4.50 ERA despite a 5.33 FIP

·  The Reds (0.327 wOBA) have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  Cincinnati boasts 3 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin, Jesse Winker)

·  THE BAT X projects the Brewers (No. 2 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.287 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  Milwaukee boasts 4 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, tied for most in MLB (Billy McKinney, Omar Narvaez, Lorenzo Cain, Avisail Garcia)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 73% of the bet tickets and 53% of the cash is on the Reds

·  This season the Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 28-13 resulting in + 13.60 Units (29% ROI)

·  This season the Brewers Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 24-19 resulting in + 2.65 Units (5% ROI)

·  Sonny Gray's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+ 105)

Texas Rangers (20-27) vs. Houston Astros (26-19)

O/U: 9 | TEX + 155 | HOU -170

Jordan Lyles (THE BAT's No. 249 SP) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (THE BAT's No. 38 SP)

Brian Knight (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 34 in MLB)

Globe Life Field (No. 19 Runs | No. 18 HR | No. 21 K)

77 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  The spin rate on Jordan Lyles's fastball (2338 rpm) has increased by 193 rpm in 2021

·  Jordan Lyles is throwing a slider 15% more often this season (28% usage) than he did last season (13% usage)

·  Jordan Lyles's curveball usage (17% in 2021, 29% in 2020) has decreased 12% this season

·  Lance McCullers Jr. is throwing a slider 24% more often this season (24% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  Lance McCullers Jr. has been throwing a curveball (16% increase) far less often in 2021 (22% usage) than he did in 2020 (38% usage)

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against Flyball hitters, Lance McCullers Jr. (57% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three Flyball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Lance McCullers Jr. has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.70 ERA is 1.06 points below his 3.76 FIP

·  The Rangers (0.300 wOBA) have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Rangers have three players (Adolis Garcia, Willie Calhoun, Charlie Culberson) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Astros (18.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.332 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Astros have 4 players (Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 81% of the bet tickets and 62% of the cash on the Astros

·  The Astros Run Line has 75% of the bet tickets and 54% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Houston Astros has been their Game Total Over which is 28-16 generating + 10.60 Units (21% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Texas Rangers has been their Team Total Over which is 27-19 generating + 5.20 Units (9% ROI)

·  Lance McCullers Jr.'s Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+ 120) is the most popular prop for the game

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