MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16183633

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 346)

2. LAD - Max Scherzer (No. 3)

3. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 8)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Bryse Wilson (No. 243 out of 346)

2. ARI - Humberto Castellanos (No. 235)

3. BAL - Zac Lowther (No. 208)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. ARI at HOU - Mike Estabrook (No. 1 out of 111)

2. SD at STL - Phil Cuzzi (No. 3)

3. BAL at BOS - Bill Miller (No. 4)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SEA at KC - Sam Holbrook (No. 7 out of 111)

2. DET at TB - Junior Valentine (No. 14)

3. OAK at LAA - James Hoye (No. 16)

Today's Hottest Games

1. LAD at CIN (87 degrees)

2. SEA at KC (87 degrees)

3. SD at STL (86 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. ATL at SF (59 degrees)

2. OAK at LAA (69 degrees)

3. CHC at MIL (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 105

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O 105

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 2.72 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -100

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 125

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Indians at Yankees

Projected: 10.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Orioles at Red Sox

Projected: 10.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

·  Mariners at Royals

Projected: 9.80 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Cubs at Brewers

Projected: 6.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Pirates at Marlins

Projected: 7.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Padres at Cardinals

Projected: 7.83 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds (77-71) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (94-54)

O/U: 8.5 | CIN 160 | LAD -180

Sonny Gray (THE BAT's No. 32 SP) vs. Max Scherzer (THE BAT's No. 3 SP)

Brian O'Nora (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 21 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

87 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

3 mph in from LF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  The spin on Sonny Gray's fastball (2419 rpm) has been 102 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Great American Ball Park is baseball's No. 2 best park for home runs, but Sonny Gray's ground ball-heavy skillset (51% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Sonny Gray (51% GB% since 2019) projects to face four Fly ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Ground ball pitchers perform worst against Fly ball hitters

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (36% FB% since 2019), Max Scherzer may not be a great fit for the No. 2 HR in baseball, Great American Ball Park, today

·  Max Scherzer and his 2.17 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.05 thus far in 2021

·  The Reds have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 6 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.325 wOBA going forward

·  The Reds have four players (Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Jonathan India, Jesse Winker) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Dodgers are the No. 4 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.9% according to THE BAT X

·  The Dodgers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.324 wOBA going forward

·  The Dodgers have four players (Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Will Smith) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Run Line has the most lopsided action today with 82% of the bet tickets and 65% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  The UNDER has 66% of the bet tickets and 94% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Dodgers has been their Game Total Under which is 73-62 generating 5.15 Units (3% ROI)

·  The Cincinnati Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 72-65 resulting in 0.80 Units (1% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Max Scherzer's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-145/ 110)

Tampa Bay Rays (92-56) vs. Detroit Tigers (70-78)

O/U: 8.5 | TB -190 | DET 165

Ryan Yarbrough (THE BAT's No. 121 SP) vs. Tarik Skubal (THE BAT's No. 129 SP)

Junior Valentine (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 14 in MLB)

Tropicana Field (No. 29 Runs | No. 19 HR | No. 3 K)

72 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tarik Skubal may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 50 pitches

·  Tarik Skubal's fastball (2192 rpm) has lost 230 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Tarik Skubal's fastball usage (43% in 2021, 61% in 2020) has decreased 18% this season

·  Tarik Skubal has been throwing a sinker (13% increase) far more often in 2021 (13% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Tarik Skubal has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against six opposite-handed hitters today

·  Tarik Skubal's 4.21 ERA is 0.71 points better than his 4.92 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  THE BAT X views the Rays as the No. 7 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  Tampa Bay boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, Mike Zunino)

·  The Tigers are the No. 4 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.0% according to THE BAT X

·  The Tigers have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30% , according to THE BAT X (Eric Haase, Derek Hill, Eric Haase)

·  THE BAT X views the Tigers as the No. 2 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Tigers have three players (Akil Baddoo, Robbie Grossman, Niko Goodrum) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Tampa Bay Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 84-59 resulting in 22.05 Units (12% ROI)

·  The Detroit Tigers Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 70-74 resulting in 21.50 Units (14% ROI)

·  Nelson Cruz's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 310/-565)

Kansas City Royals (66-81) vs. Seattle Mariners (79-68)

O/U: 9.0 | KC 105 | SEA -125

Kris Bubic (THE BAT's No. 192 SP) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (THE BAT's No. 93 SP)

Sam Holbrook (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 7 in MLB)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 15 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

87 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Kris Bubic's fastball (90.1 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  The spin on Kris Bubic's fastball (2061 rpm) has been 119 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Yusei Kikuchi's huge platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  The Royals (20.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  THE BAT X projects the Royals (No. 5 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.303 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Royals have three players (Whit Merrifield, Michael A. Taylor, Nicky Lopez) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Mariners have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.297 wOBA going forward

·  The Mariners have three players (Dylan Moore, Kyle Seager, Abraham Toro) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This season the Mariners Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 78-67 resulting in 22.25 Units (14% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Kansas City Royals has been their Game Total Under which is 71-61 generating 4.40 Units (3% ROI)

·  Yusei Kikuchi's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/ 120)

 

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-09-30_at_6.23.35_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close