MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 342)

2. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 3)

3. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 9)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. TEX - Wes Benjamin (No. 336 out of 342)

2. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 305)

3. TOR - Thomas Hatch (No. 245)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. COL at PHI - Mike Estabrook (No. 1 out of 111)

2. BOS at CWS - Dan Bellino (No. 8)

3. CIN at STL - Ryan Blakney (No. 13)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SF at CHC - Carlos Torres (No. 17 out of 111)

2. TEX at OAK - Brian Knight (No. 19)

3. KC at MIN - Greg Gibson (No. 20)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CIN at STL (88 degrees)

2. SD at LAD (87 degrees)

3. BOS at CWS (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. TEX at OAK (64 degrees)

2. ARI at SEA (71 degrees)

3. TOR at BAL (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 6.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 100

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 5.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 2.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -140

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 3.08 runs

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Giants at Cubs

Projected: 11.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -115

·  Red Sox at White Sox

Projected: 10.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Rays at Tigers

Projected: 10.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Phillies

Projected: 6.82 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

·  Marlins at Braves

Projected: 7.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Reds at Cardinals

Projected: 7.89 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cleveland Indians (69-70) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (87-55)

O/U: 9.0 | CLE + 170 | MIL -200

Zach Plesac (THE BAT's No. 128 SP) vs. Corbin Burnes (THE BAT's No. 2 SP)

Jeremie Rehak (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 19 in MLB)

Progressive Field (No. 7 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

81 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

16 mph out to RF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zach Plesac is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his reverse platoon split

·  Corbin Burnes's sinker usage (10% in 2021, 24% in 2020) has decreased 14% this season

·  Corbin Burnes is throwing a cutter 17% more often this season (52% usage) than he did last season (35% usage)

·  Corbin Burnes and his 2.38 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 2.90 thus far in 2021

·  The Indians have four hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Bradley Zimmer, Franmil Reyes, Bobby Bradley, Austin Hedges)

·  Cleveland boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Amed Rosario, Bradley Zimmer, Myles Straw, Harold Ramirez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The Brewers Run Line opened at -1.5 (-105), but is now -1.5 (-120) which is the most line movement on the slate today

·  The Milwaukee Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 77-63 resulting in + 17.30 Units (10% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Cleveland Indians has been their Run Line which is 75-63 generating + 9.65 Units (6% ROI)

·  Corbin Burnes's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-100/-125)

Minnesota Twins (62-79) vs. Kansas City Royals (64-77)

O/U: 9.0 | MIN -135 | KC + 115

Michael Pineda (THE BAT's No. 176 SP) vs. Brady Singer (THE BAT's No. 69 SP)

Greg Gibson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 20 in MLB)

Target Field (No. 15 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

75 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

9 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Michael Pineda may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 3 pitches

·  Brady Singer is throwing a fastball 43% less often this season (2% usage) than he did last season (45% usage)

·  Brady Singer's sinker usage (57% in 2021, 13% in 2020) has increased 44% this season

·  Brady Singer has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.58 ERA despite a 3.72 FIP

·  The Royals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.300 wOBA going forward

·  The Royals have three players (Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield, Michael A. Taylor) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs, but is now 9.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  This season the Twins Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 76-55 resulting in + 16.05 Units (11% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Kansas City Royals has been their Game Total Under which is 68-58 generating + 4.70 Units (3% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Josh Donaldson's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 350/-680)

Los Angeles Dodgers (89-53) vs. San Diego Padres (74-66)

O/U: 8.0 | LAD -220 | SD + 180

Walker Buehler (THE BAT's No. 19 SP) vs. Chris Paddack (THE BAT's No. 90 SP)

Dodger Stadium (No. 9 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

87 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

7 mph out to RF (No. 7 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Walker Buehler's fastball (94.7 mph) has been 1.7 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Walker Buehler's fastball usage (45% in 2021, 56% in 2020) has decreased 11% this season

·  Thus far in 2021, Chris Paddack's fastball (94.2 mph) has been nearly a full mph faster than it was last season

·  Chris Paddack is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  Chris Paddack (4.95 ERA) has been underperforming his 3.86 FIP by 1.09 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  The Dodgers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.322 wOBA going forward

·  The Dodgers have four players (Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Will Smith) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Padres have five players (Tommy Pham, Victor Caratini, Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr.) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 71% of the bet tickets and 73% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The most profitable market for the San Diego Padres has been their Team Total Under which is 74-60 generating + 7.50 Units (5% ROI)

·  This season the Dodgers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 71-59 resulting in + 6.50 Units (4% ROI)

·  Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 220/-345)

 

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