MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. TB - Tyler Glasnow (No. 8 out of 297)

2. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 10)

3. LAD - Clayton Kershaw (No. 11)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. TEX - Kohei Arihara (No. 297 out of 297)

2. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 278)

3. ARI - Merrill Kelly (No. 237)

Today's Hottest Games

1. TOR at HOU (82 degrees)

2. CWS at KC (77 degrees)

3. SEA at TEX (76 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CIN at CLE (49 degrees)

2. PIT at CHC (50 degrees)

3. COL at STL (51 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 5.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -105

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.37 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Blue Jays at Astros

Projected: 11.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Mariners at Rangers

Projected: 10.80 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -110

·  White Sox at Royals

Projected: 9.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Marlins

Projected: 7.14 runs

·  Rockies at Cardinals

Projected: 7.37 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O + 100

·  D-Backs at Mets

Projected: 7.68 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

New York Yankees (16-16) vs. Washington Nationals (13-15)

O/U: 8 | NYY -125 | WSH + 105

Corey Kluber (THE BAT's No. 70 SP) vs. Max Scherzer (THE BAT's No. 10 SP)

Alfonso Marquez (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 1 in MLB)

Yankee Stadium (No. 8 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

52 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Corey Kluber's 3.03 ERA is 1.24 points better than his 4.28 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  Max Scherzer (93.1 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Max Scherzer is a flyball pitcher (34% FB% since 2019) and Yankee Stadium is the second-most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  The Yankees' 0.311 team wOBA makes them the No. 4 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Nationals are the No. 4 least strikeout-prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.2% according to THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The UNDER has 75% of the cash and 64% of the bet tickets resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The most profitable market for the New York Yankees has been their Team Total Under which is 20-12 generating + 7.27 Units (20% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Washington Nationals has been their Game Total Under which is 17-10 generating + 6.40 Units (21% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Max Scherzer's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)

St. Louis Cardinals (19-14) vs. Colorado Rockies (12-20)

O/U: 8 | STL -180 | COL + 160

Carlos Martinez (THE BAT's No. 97 SP) vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (THE BAT's No. 231 SP)

Chad Whitson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 37 in MLB)

Busch Stadium (No. 24 Runs | No. 24 HR | No. 27 K)

51 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

13 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against Flyball hitters, Carlos Martinez (54% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Flyball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Chi Chi Gonzalez is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his reverse platoon split

·  Chi Chi Gonzalez and his 4.12 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.84 thus far in 2021

·  The Cardinals have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Carlos Martinez, Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader)

·  St. Louis boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Justin Williams, Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, Tyler O'Neill)

·  The Rockies (27.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the second-most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total UNDER opened at 8.5 Runs (-110), but is now UNDER 8 (-120) and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 67% of the bet tickets and 66% of the cash is on the Cardinals

·  The most profitable market for the St. Louis Cardinals has been their Run Line which is 21-12 generating + 11.45 Units (26% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Colorado Rockies has been their Team Total Over which is 15-12 generating + 0.41 Units (1% ROI)

·  Carlos Martinez's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-100)

Cleveland Indians (17-14) vs. Cincinnati Reds (15-15)

O/U: 8 | CLE -125 | CIN + 105

Aaron Civale (THE BAT's No. 161 SP) vs. Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 37 SP)

Ted Barrett (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 44 in MLB)

Progressive Field (No. 4 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

49 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

6 mph in from CF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Aaron Civale has been throwing a fastball (16% increase) far more often in 2021 (25% usage) than he did in 2020 (9% usage)

·  Aaron Civale's sinker usage (8% in 2021, 22% in 2020) has decreased 14% this season

·  Aaron Civale's 3.20 ERA is 1.29 points better than his 4.50 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  Luis Castillo (95.4 mph) has lost 1.4 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Luis Castillo's ability to keep the ball on the ground (56% GB% since 2019) should help him in Progressive Field (10th-best HR park in MLB) today

·  Luis Castillo (56% GB% since 2019) projects to face four Flyball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Groundball pitchers perform best against Flyball hitters

·  The Indians are the No. 5 least strikeout-prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.7% according to THE BAT X

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.288 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians have 4 players (Amed Rosario, Jordan Luplow, Eddie Rosario, Cesar Hernandez) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Reds offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Kyle Farmer, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin, Tucker Barnhart, Jesse Winker)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the Cleveland Indians Moneyline as it opened at -110 before dropping to -125

·  This season the Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 19-10 resulting in + 8.10 Units (25% ROI)

·  The Cleveland Indians Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 19-12 resulting in + 4.40 Units (11% ROI)

·  Nick Castellanos's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 435/-980)

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

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