MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 12 out of 297)

2. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 14)

3. ATL - Ian Anderson (No. 24)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. KC - Ervin Santana (No. 291 out of 297)

2. CLE - Sam Hentges (No. 285)

3. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 283)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TOR at CLE - Bill Miller (No. 5 out of 110)

2. TEX at SEA - Tripp Gibson (No. 10)

3. STL at ARI - Ryan Wills (No. 13)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SF at LAD - Greg Gibson (No. 14 out of 110)

2. LAA at OAK - David Rackley (No. 22)

3. MIA at BOS - Chad Fairchild (No. 23)

Today's Hottest Games

1. STL at ARI (84 degrees)

2. PHI at TB (72 degrees)

3. SD at HOU (72 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. MIA at BOS (44 degrees)

2. COL at PIT (46 degrees)

3. MIL at WSH (47 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 4.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 4.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 105

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 4.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 2.54 runs

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 2.61 runs

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 2.70 runs

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Cardinals at D-Backs

Projected: 9.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -120

·  Royals at Twins

Projected: 9.43 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

·  Padres at Astros

Projected: 9.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Pirates

Projected: 5.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.0 O + 100

·  Orioles at White Sox

Projected: 5.35 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 100

·  Brewers at Nationals

Projected: 5.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Minnesota Twins (20-30) vs. Kansas City Royals (24-25)

O/U: 9.5 | MIN -160 | KC + 140

J.A. Happ (THE BAT's No. 202 SP) vs. Ervin Santana (THE BAT's No. 291 SP)

Tim Timmons (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 37 in MLB)

Target Field (No. 15 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

60 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

10 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  J.A. Happ's fastball velocity (89.8 mph) has been down 1.2 mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  J.A. Happ is projected to face 8 opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  Ervin Santana may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 60 pitches

·  Ervin Santana's flyball nature (44% FB% since 2019) should play well in Target Field (No. 9 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Ervin Santana (44% FB% since 2019) projects to face 2 Groundball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Flyball pitchers perform best against Groundball hitters

·  Ervin Santana and his 3.00 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 5.33 thus far in 2021

·  The Twins have three players (Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, Mitch Garver) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Royals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.294 wOBA going forward

·  The Royals offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Michael A. Taylor, Salvador Perez, Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Royals Moneyline as it's dropped from + 150 to + 140 despite only getting 27% of the cash

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 9.5 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 73% of the cash and 57% of the bet tickets is on the Twins

·  The most profitable market for the Minnesota Twins has been their Game Total Over which is 32-16 generating + 14.55 Units (26% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Kansas City Royals has been their Team Total Under which is 27-19 generating + 6.53 Units (12% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers (31-20) vs. San Francisco Giants (31-20)

O/U: 7.5 | LAD -210 | SF + 175

Julio Urias (THE BAT's No. 25 SP) vs. Logan Webb (THE BAT's No. 79 SP)

Greg Gibson (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 14 in MLB)

Dodger Stadium (No. 20 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

71 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

8 mph out to CF (No. 8 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Julio Urias's curveball usage (32% in 2021, 22% in 2020) has increased 10% this season

·  Julio Urias's reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face 6 of them today

·  Logan Webb's fastball usage (15% in 2021, 33% in 2020) has decreased 18% this season

·  Logan Webb's sinker usage (31% in 2021, 13% in 2020) has increased 18% this season

·  Logan Webb's ability to keep the ball on the ground (53% GB% since 2019) should help him in Dodger Stadium (No. 9 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Groundball pitchers tend to perform worse against Flyball hitters, and Logan Webb (53% GB% since 2019) is projected to face four of them today

·  Logan Webb has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.19 ERA despite a 3.67 FIP

·  The Dodgers have five players (Will Smith, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

·  THE BAT X views the Giants as the No. 2 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Giants offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Mauricio Dubon, Austin Slater, Brandon Crawford)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline opening price of -180 has steamed 30 cents and is now -210

·  The Dodgers Moneyline has 77% of the bet tickets and 69% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 89% of the bet tickets and 55% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The most profitable market for the San Francisco Giants has been their Run Line which is 33-18 generating + 17.70 Units (27% ROI)

·  The Los Angeles Dodgers Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 26-24 resulting in + 0.25 Units (0% ROI)

Seattle Mariners (25-27) vs. Texas Rangers (22-31)

O/U: 8.5 | SEA -120 | TEX + 100

Justin Dunn (THE BAT's No. 277 SP) vs. Mike Foltynewicz (THE BAT's No. 215 SP)

Tripp Gibson (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 10 in MLB)

T-Mobile Park (No. 26 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

67 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Justin Dunn (93.1 mph) has added 2.5 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Justin Dunn's fastball spin rate (2361 rpm) has jumped 121 rpm since 2020

·  Justin Dunn has been throwing a curveball (11% increase) far more often in 2021 (34% usage) than he did in 2020 (23% usage)

·  Justin Dunn is a flyball pitcher (44% FB% since 2019) and T-Mobile Park is the No. 8 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Given that Flyball pitchers are least effective against Groundball hitters, Justin Dunn (44% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with 3 Groundball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Justin Dunn has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.40 ERA is 1.61 points below his 5.02 FIP

·  The Mariners have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 6 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.281 wOBA going forward

·  The Rangers (0.302 wOBA) have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This season the Rangers Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 30-22 resulting in + 4.54 Units (7% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Seattle Mariners has been their Run Line which is 29-23 generating + 3.50 Units (5% ROI)

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