MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 11 out of 298)

2. LAD - Trevor Bauer (No. 16)

3. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 19)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. COL - Jhoulys Chacin (No. 251 out of 298)

2. SF - Johnny Cueto (No. 224)

3. MIL - Brett Anderson (No. 214)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. NYM at TB - Gabe Morales (No. 13 out of 110)

2. LAA at BOS - Ryan Blakney (No. 16)

3. NYY at BAL - Roberto Ortiz (No. 23)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. TEX at HOU - Mark Wegner (No. 5 out of 110)

2. CIN at COL - Nic Lentz (No. 6)

3. CLE at SEA - Stu Scheurwater (No. 9)

Today's Hottest Games

1. WSH at ARI (85 degrees)

2. PHI at TOR (80 degrees)

3. TEX at HOU (79 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. KC at CWS (57 degrees)

2. STL at SD (62 degrees)

3. MIA at LAD (64 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 6.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.87 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 5.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O + 105

·  Kansas City Royals

Projected: 3.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 115

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Reds at Rockies

Projected: 11.20 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O + 100

·  Nationals at D-Backs

Projected: 10.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  Phillies at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Cardinals at Padres

Projected: 7.26 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O + 100

·  Royals at White Sox

Projected: 7.48 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O + 100

·  Giants at Pirates

Projected: 7.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Pittsburgh Pirates (16-22) vs. San Francisco Giants (23-15)

O/U: 7.5 | PIT + 100 | SF -120

Tyler Anderson (THE BAT's No. 160 SP) vs. Johnny Cueto (THE BAT's No. 224 SP)

Mark Ripperger (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 36 in MLB)

PNC Park (No. 20 Runs | No. 26 HR | No. 25 K)

67 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

3 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tyler Anderson's cutter usage (28% in 2021, 17% in 2020) has increased 11% this season

·  Tyler Anderson has added 135 rpm of spin to his fastball (2439 rpm) in 2021

·  Tyler Anderson's skillset (33% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in PNC Park (No. 2 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against Groundball hitters, and Tyler Anderson (33% FB% since 2019) is projected to face 2 of them today

·  Johnny Cueto may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 84 pitches

·  Johnny Cueto is throwing a slider 20% more often this season (28% usage) than he did last season (8% usage)

·  Johnny Cueto is throwing a curveball 19% less often this season (2% usage) than he did last season (21% usage)

·  Johnny Cueto's 3.52 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.68 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  According to THE BAT X, the Giants and their 0.307 wOBA have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in 2021

·  San Francisco boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline as it opened at + 120 before dropping to + 100

·  The most profitable market for the San Francisco Giants has been their Run Line which is 24-14 generating + 13.10 Units (28% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Pittsburgh Pirates has been their Game Total Under which is 20-15 generating + 3.95 Units (9% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers (20-19) vs. Atlanta Braves (18-20)

O/U: 7.5 | MIL + 100 | ATL -120

Brett Anderson (THE BAT's No. 214 SP) vs. Ian Anderson (THE BAT's No. 31 SP)

American Family Field (No. 17 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

72 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Brett Anderson may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 70 pitches

·  So far in 2021, Brett Anderson has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.54 ERA despite a 4.92 FIP

·  Ian Anderson has a large reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face 6 of today

·  The Brewers' 0.289 team wOBA makes them the No. 4 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Brewers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez, Billy McKinney)

·  The Braves have 4 players (Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr.) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This season the Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 21-14 resulting in + 4.13 Units (9% ROI)

·  This season the Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 20-19 resulting in + 1.10 Units (2% ROI)

Seattle Mariners (19-20) vs. Cleveland Indians (21-15)

O/U: 8.5 | SEA -110 | CLE -110

Justus Sheffield (THE BAT's No. 153 SP) vs. Triston McKenzie (THE BAT's No. 99 SP)

Stu Scheurwater (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 9 in MLB)

T-Mobile Park (No. 25 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

70 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

8 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Justus Sheffield is projected to face 7 opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  THE BAT's 4.34 projected ERA for Justus Sheffield is quite a bit better than his 4.91 ERA this season

·  Triston McKenzie (90.4 mph) has lost 1.7 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Triston McKenzie's spin rate (2232 rpm) has decreased by 105 rpm in 2021

·  Triston McKenzie is a flyball pitcher (38% FB% since 2019) and T-Mobile Park is the No. 7 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  The Mariners offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Mitch Haniger, Kyle Lewis, Dylan Moore, Kyle Seager)

·  The Indians are the No. 2 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 20.2% according to THE BAT X

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.288 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Eddie Rosario, Cesar Hernandez, Amed Rosario, Jordan Luplow)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as it opened at OVER 8.0 Runs (-110), but has been bet up to OVER 8.5 (-105)

·  The Seattle Mariners Moneyline opening price of + 105 has steamed 15 cents and is now -110

·  This season the Mariners Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 24-15 resulting in + 6.40 Units (12% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Cleveland Indians has been their Moneyline which is 21-15 generating + 4.65 Units (10% ROI)

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

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