MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 6 out of 300)

2. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 14)

3. LAD - Dustin May (No. 15)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. TEX - Jordan Lyles (No. 278 out of 300)

2. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 275)

3. MIN - Matt Shoemaker (No. 251)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. BOS at TEX - Ron Kulpa (No. 4 out of 117)

2. CLE at CWS - Ben May (No. 11)

3. SF at SD - Ryan Additon (No. 13)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CHC at CIN - Sam Holbrook (No. 7 out of 117)

2. BAL at OAK - Greg Gibson (No. 12)

3. STL at PIT - Jordan Baker (No. 19)

Today's Hottest Games

1. COL at ARI (86 degrees)

2. KC at MIN (78 degrees)

3. LAD at MIL (77 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAA at SEA (54 degrees)

2. MIA at WSH (55 degrees)

3. DET at NYY (57 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.96 runs

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 5.37 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 115

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.36 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.26 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O + 125

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 140

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 395

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Blue Jays

Projected: 11.32 runs

·  Royals at Twins

Projected: 10.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O + 100

·  Cubs at Reds

Projected: 9.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Giants at Padres

Projected: 7.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

·  Cardinals at Pirates

Projected: 7.79 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

·  Dodgers at Brewers

Projected: 8.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Minnesota Twins (9-15) vs. Kansas City Royals (15-9)

9.0 O/U | MIN -125 | KC + 105

Matt Shoemaker (THE BAT's No. 251 SP) vs. Danny Duffy (THE BAT's No. 63 SP)

Target Field (No. 17 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

78 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

9 mph out to CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Danny Duffy (93.1 mph) has added 1.6 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Danny Duffy's fastball spin rate (2287 rpm) has jumped 114 rpm since 2020

·  Danny Duffy's flyball nature (36% FB% since 2019) should play well in Target Field (#9 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Danny Duffy has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 8 opposite-handed hitters today

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against flyball hitters, and Danny Duffy (36% FB% since 2019) is projected to face 2 of them today

·  Danny Duffy has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 0.39 ERA is 1.81 points below his 2.20 FIP

·  The Twins (21.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Twins have four players (Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, third-most in MLB

·  The Royals have four players (Hunter Dozier, Salvador Perez, Michael A. Taylor, Jorge Soler) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, third-most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as the opening OVER 8.0 Runs (-115) has been bet up by sharps to OVER 9.0 (+ 100)

·  On the year, Kansas City Royals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and are 15-8 to generate + 6.10 Units (23% ROI)

Chicago White Sox (14-11) vs. Cleveland Indians (12-12)

8.5 O/U | CWS -170 | CLE + 155

Lance Lynn (THE BAT's No. 18 SP) vs. Triston McKenzie (THE BAT's No. 99 SP)

Ben May (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 11 in MLB)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 15 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

71 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

22 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Triston McKenzie (90.3 mph) has lost 1.8 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Triston McKenzie's spin rate (2249 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Triston McKenzie is a flyball pitcher (39% FB% since 2019) and Guaranteed Rate Field is the No. 4 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Lance Lynn has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against six opposite-handed hitters today

·  According to THE BAT X, the White Sox and their 0.327 wOBA have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Indians (22.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.288 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians have four players (Roberto Perez, Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes, Jordan Luplow) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

·  The White Sox have five players (Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Adam Eaton, Leury Garcia, Nick Madrigal) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Moneyline as 65% of the bet tickets are on the Indians, but 78% of the cash is on the White Sox

·  On the year, Cleveland Indians Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and are 15-9 to generate + 5.08 Units (18% ROI)

·  We're seeing line movement on the Game Total as it opened at 8.0 Runs, but sharp action has bet the OVER to 8.5 Runs

Cincinnati Reds (12-13) vs. Chicago Cubs (11-15)

8.5 O/U | CIN -160 | CHC + 140

Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 43 SP) vs. Zach Davies (THE BAT's No. 217 SP)

Sam Holbrook (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 7 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

69 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

11 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Luis Castillo (95.1 mph) has lost 1.7 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Groundball pitchers tend to perform better against groundball hitters, and Luis Castillo (57% GB% since 2019) is projected to face 3 of them today

·  Great American Ball Park is baseball's #1 best park for home runs, but Luis Castillo's groundball-heavy skillset (57% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Zach Davies (86.9 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Zach Davies is throwing a sinker 12% more often this season (51% usage) than he did last season (39% usage)

·  According to THE BAT X, the Reds and their 0.328 wOBA have been the #4 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Cubs have five players (Javier Baez, David Bote, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

·  The Reds have five players (Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin, Tucker Barnhart, Jesse Winker, Kyle Farmer) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

·  The Cubs have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Javier Baez, Jake Marisnick, Zach Davies)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Run Line as 54% of the bet tickets are on the Cubs, but 71% of the cash is on the Reds

·  The Cincinnati Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and are 18-6 to generate + 11.40 Units (41% ROI)

·  The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and are 19-7 to generate + 11.03 Units (37% ROI)

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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