MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 296)

2. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 4)

3. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 11)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Chase De Jong (No. 287 out of 296)

2. STL - Johan Oviedo (No. 262)

3. CHC - Kohl Stewart (No. 216)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. MIN at KC - Mike Estabrook (No. 3 out of 110)

2. CHC at SF - Adam Hamari (No. 5)

3. WSH at PHI - Ryan Blakney (No. 9)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CIN at STL - Andy Fletcher (No. 19 out of 110)

2. MIA at PIT - James Hoye (No. 22)

3. BOS at NYY - Brian Knight (No. 30)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CLE at BAL (91 degrees)

2. ARI at MIL (89 degrees)

3. WSH at PHI (89 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CHC at SF (61 degrees)

2. NYM at SD (64 degrees)

3. SEA at LAA (67 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 6.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -125

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 3.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -120

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Athletics at Rockies

Projected: 12.19 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -110

·  Red Sox at Yankees

Projected: 10.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Astros at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Padres

Projected: 6.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.0 O -105

·  Cubs at Giants

Projected: 7.83 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

·  Rays at Rangers

Projected: 8.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Chicago White Sox (35-22) vs. Detroit Tigers (23-34)

O/U: 8.0 | CWS -240 | DET + 200

Lucas Giolito (THE BAT's No. 17 SP) vs. Tarik Skubal (THE BAT's No. 175 SP)

Dan Merzel (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 37 in MLB)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 9 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

84 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

13 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Lucas Giolito has added nearly 100 rpm of spin to his fastball (2425 rpm) in 2021

·  Lucas Giolito's large reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  Tarik Skubal's spin rate (2230 rpm) has decreased by 192 rpm in 2021

·  Tarik Skubal may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 3 best home run park in baseball (Guaranteed Rate Field) given his fly ball tendencies (47% FB% since 2019)

·  Tarik Skubal (47% FB% since 2019) projects to face three ground ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Fly ball pitchers perform worst against ground ball hitters

·  Tarik Skubal's 4.78 ERA is 1.08 points better than his 5.85 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The White Sox are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.0% according to THE BAT X

·  The White Sox (0.328 wOBA) have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The White Sox offense is quite fast; they have the No. 4 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Leury Garcia, Nick Madrigal, Adam Eaton)

·  The Tigers (26.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Tigers have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Niko Goodrum, Akil Baddoo, Jake Rogers)

·  The Tigers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Robbie Grossman, Niko Goodrum, Akil Baddoo)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs, but is now 8.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 68% of the cash and 64% of the bet tickets is on the White Sox

·  The Chicago White Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 30-26 resulting in + 9.65 Units (16% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Detroit Tigers has been their Game Total Under which is 33-22 generating + 8.90 Units (14% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Lucas Giolito's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-155/+ 115)

Baltimore Orioles (20-37) vs. Cleveland Indians (30-25)

O/U: 8.5 | BAL -130 | CLE + 110

John Means (THE BAT's No. 48 SP) vs. Aaron Civale (THE BAT's No. 173 SP)

Mark Ripperger (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 35 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 6 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

91 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

6 mph out to CF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, John Means's fastball (92.1 mph) has been 1.3 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  John Means may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 4 best home run park in baseball (Oriole Park at Camden Yards) given his fly ball tendencies (42% FB% since 2019)

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Groundball hitters, and John Means (42% FB% since 2019) is projected to face 4 of them today

·  Aaron Civale's fastball usage (26% in 2021, 9% in 2020) has increased 17% this season

·  Aaron Civale has been throwing a sinker (12% increase) far less often in 2021 (10% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  So far in 2021, Aaron Civale has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.28 ERA despite a 4.31 FIP

·  The Indians (20.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 1 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.291 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians offense is quite fast; they have the No. 4 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Amed Rosario, Cesar Hernandez, Jose Ramirez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Orioles Moneyline has steamed 10 cents as it opened at -120 and is now -130

·  The most profitable market for the Cleveland Indians has been their Team Total Under which is 29-21 generating + 5.73 Units (10% ROI)

·  The Baltimore Orioles Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 31-24 resulting in + 4.70 Units (8% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is John Means' Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)

Los Angeles Angels (26-31) vs. Seattle Mariners (29-30)

O/U: 8 | LAA -155 | SEA + 135

Alex Cobb (THE BAT's No. 80 SP) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (THE BAT's No. 148 SP)

Jeremy Riggs (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 17 in MLB)

Angel Stadium (No. 16 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

67 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

8 mph out to CF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Alex Cobb's fastball usage (0% in 2021, 48% in 2020) has decreased 48% this season

·  Alex Cobb has been throwing a sinker (41% increase) far more often in 2021 (41% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Alex Cobb's ability to keep the ball on the ground (54% GB% since 2019) should help him in Angel Stadium (No. 5 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Alex Cobb's reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face 7 of them today

·  Alex Cobb has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 3.78 ERA despite a 2.27 FIP

·  Yusei Kikuchi's fastball spin rate (2314 rpm) has jumped 136 rpm since 2020

·  The Mariners have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.284 wOBA going forward

·  The Mariners offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Tom Murphy, Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the Los Angeles Angels moneyline as it opened at -130 before dropping to -155

·  The most profitable market for the Seattle Mariners has been their ML, which is 29-30 generating + 4.70 Units (8% ROI)

·  The Los Angeles Angels Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 31-26 resulting in + 1.55 Units (2% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Shohei Ohtani's Total Bases Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-215/+ 155)

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