MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 294)

2. CIN - Luis Castillo (No. 21)

3. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 23)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 289 out of 294)

2. CLE - Sam Hentges (No. 272)

3. CHC - Alec Mills (No. 234)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. SEA at CWS - Phil Cuzzi (No. 4 out of 110)

2. CLE at MIN - Chris Guccione (No. 18)

3. WSH at MIA - Vic Carapazza (No. 20)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. COL at MIL - John Libka (No. 13 out of 110)

2. LAA at TB - Brian Knight (No. 25)

3. ARI at SD - Lance Barksdale (No. 30)

Today's Hottest Games

1. PIT at STL (87 degrees)

2. ATL at CIN (86 degrees)

3. CHC at LAD (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. OAK at SF (58 degrees)

2. ARI at SD (68 degrees)

3. KC at TEX (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 110

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 2.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O + 120

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.11 runs

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.51 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Yankees at Red Sox

Projected: 10.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  Cubs at Dodgers

Projected: 9.57 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -110

·  Orioles at Blue Jays

Projected: 9.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Mets

Projected: 6.83 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -105

·  Astros at Tigers

Projected: 7.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Angels at Rays

Projected: 7.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

 

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds (37-37) vs. Atlanta Braves (36-39)

O/U: 9.0 | CIN -125 | ATL + 105

Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 21 SP) vs. Ian Anderson (THE BAT's No. 24 SP)

Laz Diaz (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 36 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

86 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

14 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  The spin rate on Luis Castillo's fastball (2287 rpm) has increased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Luis Castillo's ground ball tendencies (56% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park (No. 1 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Fly ball hitters, and Luis Castillo (56% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  The Reds have five players (Jonathan India, Jesse Winker, Tyler Stephenson, Nick Castellanos, Joey Votto) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Atlanta Braves' 26.8 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 most on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X views the Braves as the No. 7 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  Atlanta boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (William Contreras, Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson, Ronald Acuna Jr.)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Cincinnati Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 43-28 resulting in + 12.25 Units (15% ROI)

·  The Atlanta Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 39-29 resulting in + 4.05 Units (5% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Ronald Acuna Jr.'s Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 230/-365)

Milwaukee Brewers (43-33) vs. Colorado Rockies (31-45)

O/U: 8.0 | MIL -190 | COL + 165

Adrian Houser (THE BAT's No. 126 SP) vs. Antonio Senzatela (THE BAT's No. 133 SP)

John Libka (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 13 in MLB)

American Family Field (No. 17 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

76 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

10 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Adrian Houser's ability to keep the ball on the ground (58% GB% since 2019) should help him in American Family Field (No. 10 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Fly ball hitters, and Adrian Houser (58% GB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  So far in 2021, Adrian Houser has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.95 ERA despite a 4.69 FIP

·  Antonio Senzatela's ground ball tendencies (53% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly American Family Field (No. 10 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Fly ball hitters, and Antonio Senzatela (53% GB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  The Milwaukee Brewers' 27.8 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 most on today's slate of games

·  The Brewers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.292 wOBA going forward

·  The Brewers have three players (Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames, Christian Yelich) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 8 (tie) most in MLB

·  Colorado boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Raimel Tapia, Garrett Hampson, Yonathan Daza, Trevor Story)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 8.0 Runs

·  There is reverse line movement on the Rockies Moneyline as it's dropped from + 180 to + 165 despite only getting 27% of the cash

·  The Game Total has 55% of the bet tickets on the UNDER, but 18% of the cash is on the OVER resulting in two-way action

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 65% of the bet tickets and 73% of the cash is on the Brewers

·  The Brewers Run Line has 65% of the bet tickets and 51% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Colorado Rockies has been their Team Total Over which is 36-28 generating + 3.30 Units (4% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Milwaukee Brewers has been their Moneyline which is 43-33 generating + 1.85 Units (2% ROI)

·  Christian Yelich's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 315/-570) is the most popular prop for the game

Miami Marlins (32-43) vs. Washington Nationals (36-37)

O/U: 7.5 | MIA -115 | WSH -105

Zach Thompson (THE BAT's No. 220 SP) vs. Patrick Corbin (THE BAT's No. 124 SP)

Vic Carapazza (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 20 in MLB)

Marlins Park (No. 27 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)

72 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zach Thompson may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 76 pitches

·  Zach Thompson is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his reverse platoon split

·  While THE BAT projects Zach Thompson's ERA going forward to be 4.72, his actual has been 1.50 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Thus far in 2021, Patrick Corbin's fastball (91.0 mph) has been 1.4 mph faster than it was last season

·  Patrick Corbin is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  The Marlins have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Jazz Chisholm, Zach Thompson, Jorge Alfaro)

·  The Marlins have four players (Adam Duvall, Starling Marte, Jazz Chisholm, Jon Berti) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 7.5 Runs

·  The Marlins Moneyline opened at + 100, but is now -115 and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  The Nationals Run Line has 87% of the bet tickets and 83% of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  The Game Total has 68% of the bet tickets on the UNDER, but 10% of the cash is on the OVER resulting in two-way action

·  This season the Nationals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 47-23 resulting in + 21.95 Units (28% ROI)

·  This season the Marlins Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 39-32 resulting in + 3.45 Units (4% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Juan Soto's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 405/-875)

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