MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 14 out of 294)

2. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 24)

3. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 28)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 289 out of 294)

2. WSH - Jon Lester (No. 268)

3. CIN - Vladimir Gutierrez (No. 247)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. LAD at ARI - Doug Eddings (No. 8 out of 110)

2. TOR at BAL - Roberto Ortiz (No. 9)

3. MIL at COL - Ryan Wills (No. 17)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CLE at PIT - Alfonso Marquez (No. 2 out of 110)

2. TB at SEA - Nic Lentz (No. 6)

3. MIA at CHC - Shane Livensparger (No. 15)

Today's Hottest Games

1. BOS at KC (92 degrees)

2. OAK at NYY (86 degrees)

3. TOR at BAL (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. PHI at SF (63 degrees)

2. STL at ATL (70 degrees)

3. MIN at TEX (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 5.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -100

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 5.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.60 runs

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 3.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Athletics at Yankees

Projected: 11.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O 100

·  Red Sox at Royals

Projected: 10.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -105

·  Brewers at Rockies

Projected: 10.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Nationals

Projected: 7.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O 105

·  Phillies at Giants

Projected: 7.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

·  White Sox at Astros

Projected: 7.89 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Baltimore Orioles (23-46) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (33-35)

 

O/U: 10.0 | BAL 150 | TOR -165

 

Dean Kremer (THE BAT's No. 201 SP) vs. Alek Manoah (THE BAT's No. 75 SP)

Roberto Ortiz (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 9 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 5 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

84 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

11 mph out to RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Dean Kremer is a fly ball pitcher (40% FB% since 2019) and Oriole Park at Camden Yards is the No. 4 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Dean Kremer is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  Alek Manoah has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.66 ERA is 1.72 points below his 4.38 FIP

·  The Baltimore Orioles' 22.5 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 5 least on today's slate of games

·  The Orioles have four players (Pedro Severino, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Toronto Blue Jays' 20.5 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 least on today's slate of games

·  The Blue Jays have three players (Bo Bichette, Rowdy Tellez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Run Line for the Toronto Blue Jays was -1.5 (-110), but is now -1.5 (-120) after it steamed 10 cents

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 76% of the bet tickets and 96% of the cash is on the Blue Jays

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 71% of the bet tickets and 92% of the cash on the Blue Jays

·  The OVER has 68% of the bet tickets and 72% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The Baltimore Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 35-30 resulting in 2.17 Units (3% ROI)

 

Houston Astros (41-28) vs. Chicago White Sox (43-27)

 

O/U: 7.5 | HOU -130 | CWS 110

 

Framber Valdez (THE BAT's No. 29 SP) vs. Lance Lynn (THE BAT's No. 24 SP)

Alex Tosi (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 25 in MLB)

Minute Maid Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Framber Valdez (91.8 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Framber Valdez has been throwing a sinker (11% increase) far less often in 2021 (45% usage) than he did in 2020 (56% usage)

·  Framber Valdez (63% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Fly ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Ground ball pitchers perform worst against Fly ball hitters

·  Framber Valdez has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 1.42 ERA is 2.09 points below his 3.52 FIP

·  Lance Lynn has been throwing a cutter (10% increase) far more often in 2021 (31% usage) than he did in 2020 (21% usage)

·  Lance Lynn has a large platoon split and is projected to hold the platoon advantage against six same-handed hitters today

·  The Astros are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 19.4% according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Astros as the No. 2 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Astros have five players (Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The White Sox (0.323 wOBA) have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  Chicago boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Andrew Vaughn, Yasmani Grandal, Yermin Mercedes)

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 7.5 Runs

·  This season the Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 41-27 resulting in 11.70 Units (16% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Chicago White Sox has been their Run Line which is 36-33 generating 8.30 Units (11% ROI)

·  Lance Lynn's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/ 100) is the most popular prop for the game

 

Seattle Mariners (36-36) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (43-28)

 

O/U: 8 | SEA 120 | TB -140

 

Logan Gilbert (THE BAT's No. 116 SP) vs. Josh Fleming (THE BAT's No. 141 SP)

Nic Lentz (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 6 in MLB)

T-Mobile Park (No. 26 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

72 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

7 mph in from LF (No. 6 weakest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Logan Gilbert may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 9 best home run park in baseball (T-Mobile Park) given his fly ball tendencies (40% FB% since 2019)

·  Josh Fleming may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 78 pitches

·  T-Mobile Park is baseball's No. 9 best park for home runs, but Josh Fleming's ground ball-heavy skillset (62% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  So far in 2021, Josh Fleming has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.20 ERA despite a 4.21 FIP

·  The Mariners have four players (Dylan Moore, Tom Murphy, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Rays (26.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Rays have three players (Austin Meadows, Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 69% of the bet tickets and 82% of the cash on the Rays

·  The most profitable market for the Tampa Bay Rays has been their Run Line which is 46-25 generating 19.85 Units (21% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Seattle Mariners has been their Moneyline which is 36-36 generating 8.15 Units (11% ROI)

·  Logan Gilbert's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)

 

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