MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16216522

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 298)

2. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 11)

3. LAD - Trevor Bauer (No. 21)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Chad Kuhl (No. 275 out of 298)

2. DET - Jose Urena (No. 249)

3. STL - John Gant (No. 234)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. HOU at MIN - Jeremie Rehak (No. 6 out of 110)

2. TOR at BOS - Vic Carapazza (No. 21)

3. BAL at TB - Nick Mahrley (No. 33)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. TEX at LAD - Edwin Moscoso (No. 1 out of 110)

2. STL at CHC - Sam Holbrook (No. 7)

3. CWS at DET - Andy Fletcher (No. 21)

Today's Hottest Games

1. COL at CIN (90 degrees)

2. CWS at DET (85 degrees)

3. HOU at MIN (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SF at WSH (67 degrees)

2. TOR at BOS (68 degrees)

3. SD at NYM (68 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.48 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -100

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.26 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.17 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.05 runs

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -105

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Blue Jays at Red Sox

Projected: 10.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Astros at Twins

Projected: 10.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

·  White Sox at Tigers

Projected: 9.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Giants at Nationals

Projected: 6.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.0 O + 100

·  Padres at Mets

Projected: 6.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O + 100

·  Orioles at Rays

Projected: 7.72 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Washington Nationals (25-34) vs. San Francisco Giants (39-23)

O/U: 6 | WSH + 130 | SF -150

Erick Fedde (THE BAT's No. 204 SP) vs. Kevin Gausman (THE BAT's No. 24 SP)

Nationals Park (No. 12 Runs | No. 12 HR | No. 14 K)

67 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

4 mph in from CF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Erick Fedde is throwing a fastball 21% less often this season (1% usage) than he did last season (22% usage)

·  Erick Fedde has been throwing a sinker (13% increase) far more often in 2021 (46% usage) than he did in 2020 (33% usage)

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are least effective against Flyball hitters, Erick Fedde (52% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with 2 Flyball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Joe Ross has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.80 ERA is 0.75 points below his 5.56 FIP

·  This season, Kevin Gausman's fastball (93.8 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Kevin Gausman's large reverse platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  The Nationals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.303 wOBA going forward

·  The Giants (0.318 wOBA) have been the uckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  San Francisco boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Mauricio Dubon, Austin Slater, Brandon Crawford)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The San Francisco Giants Moneyline is showing the most line movement today as it opened at + 150 before dropping to -150

·  The Game Total UNDER opened at 7.0 Runs (+ 100), but is now UNDER 6.0 (-120) and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 98% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash is on the Giants

·  The San Francisco Giants Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 41-20 resulting in + 25.50 Units (33% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Washington Nationals has been their Game Total Under which is 37-19 generating + 16.25 Units (26% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Juan Soto's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 375/-760)

Cincinnati Reds (30-31) vs. Colorado Rockies (25-39)

O/U: 9.0 | CIN -135 | COL + 115

Wade Miley (THE BAT's No. 139 SP) vs. German Marquez (THE BAT's No. 40 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

90 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

5 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Wade Miley's ability to keep the ball on the ground (52% GB% since 2019) should help him in Great American Ball Park (No. 1 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Wade Miley (52% GB% since 2019) projects to face two fly ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since ground ball pitchers perform best against fly ball hitters

·  Wade Miley's 2.96 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.20 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  German Marquez's fastball velocity (94.3 mph) has been down 1.1 mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  The spin on German Marquez's fastball (2077 rpm) has been nearly 100 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Great American Ball Park is baseball's best park for home runs, but German Marquez's ground ball-heavy skillset (51% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  According to THE BAT X, the Reds and their 0.327 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Reds offense knows how to barrel a baseball: They are tied for the most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Tyler Naquin, Joey Votto)

·  Colorado boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This season the Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 36-22 resulting in + 11.65 Units (17% ROI)

·  This season the Rockies Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 29-24 resulting in + 0.32 Units (0% ROI)

·  German Marquez's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+ 110)

Los Angeles Dodgers (38-25) vs. Texas Rangers (24-40)

O/U: 7.5 | LAD -290 | TEX + 245

Trevor Bauer (THE BAT's No. 21 SP) vs. Kolby Allard (THE BAT's No. 152 SP)

Edwin Moscoso (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 1 in MLB)

Dodger Stadium (No. 18 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

78 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

5 mph out to CF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Trevor Bauer is a fly ball pitcher (41% FB% since 2019) and Dodger Stadium is the No. 7 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against ground ball hitters, and Trevor Bauer (41% FB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  Kolby Allard is throwing a fastball 12% less often this season (34% usage) than he did last season (46% usage)

·  Kolby Allard has been throwing a curveball (14% increase) far more often in 2021 (24% usage) than he did in 2020 (10% usage)

·  Kolby Allard's 3.41 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.25 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Dodgers (22.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Dodgers have three players (Albert Pujols, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

·  The projected lineup for the Rangers holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Kolby Allard, Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia. THE BAT projects all for a Kolby Allard, Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia+ underlying K%

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Dodgers has been their Game Total Over which is 34-28 generating + 4.00 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Texas Rangers has been their Game Total Under which is 33-29 generating + 1.00 Units (1% ROI)

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