MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16211712

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 3 out of 339)

2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 11)

3. COL - German Marquez (No. 27)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. STL - Jake Woodford (No. 310 out of 339)

2. LAA - Jaime Barria (No. 260)

3. NYM - Rich Hill (No. 228)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. OAK at LAA - Tripp Gibson (No. 6 out of 110)

2. MIL at ATL - CB Bucknor (No. 19)

3. HOU at SF - Brian O'Nora (No. 28)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. MIN at STL - Carlos Torres (No. 13 out of 110)

2. KC at TOR - Andy Fletcher (No. 21)

3. COL at SD - Jeff Nelson (No. 24)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at ATL (88 degrees)

2. OAK at LAA (81 degrees)

3. CHC at WSH (80 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. HOU at SF (62 degrees)

2. KC at TOR (65 degrees)

3. SEA at TEX (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 5.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -100

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 5.20 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -135

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Athletics at Angels

Projected: 10.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115

·  Royals at Blue Jays

Projected: 9.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Brewers at Braves

Projected: 9.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Padres

Projected: 7.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -110

·  Yankees at Marlins

Projected: 7.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Astros at Giants

Projected: 7.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Toronto Blue Jays (52-48) vs. Kansas City Royals (45-57)

O/U: 9.5 | TOR -250 | KC + 210

Alek Manoah (THE BAT's No. 43 SP) vs. Mike Minor (THE BAT's No. 72 SP)

Andy Fletcher (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 21 in MLB)

Rogers Centre

65 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Alek Manoah may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 85 pitches

·  The Blue Jays (20.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total UNDER opened at 10.5 Runs (-120), but is now UNDER 9.5 (-115) and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  The most line movement today is the Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline as it opened at -190 before dropping to -250

·  The Blue Jays Run Line has 69% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 66% of the bet tickets and 65% of the cash is on the Blue Jays

·  The Kansas City Royals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 53-45 resulting in + 4.91 Units (4% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Toronto Blue Jays has been their Run Line which is 55-45 generating + 1.75 Units (1% ROI)

Chicago White Sox (61-43) vs. Cleveland Indians (50-50)

O/U: 9.0 | CWS -155 | CLE + 135

Dallas Keuchel (THE BAT's No. 96 SP) vs. Triston McKenzie (THE BAT's No. 117 SP)

Mike Muchlinski (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 37 in MLB)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

78 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Dallas Keuchel (56% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Ground ball hitters, and Triston McKenzie (40% FB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  The Indians are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.0% according to THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Indians Moneyline as it's dropped from + 155 to + 135 despite only getting 30% of the cash

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 74% of the bet tickets and 70% of the cash is on the White Sox

·  The Game Total has 75% of the bet tickets on the UNDER, but 29% of the cash is on the OVER resulting in two-way action

·  The Chicago White Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 54-49 resulting in + 10.15 Units (9% ROI)

·  The Cleveland Indians Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 55-42 resulting in + 9.30 Units (8% ROI)

San Diego Padres (60-46) vs. Colorado Rockies (45-59)

O/U: 7.0 | SD -200 | COL + 170

Yu Darvish (THE BAT's No. 36 SP) vs. German Marquez (THE BAT's No. 26 SP)

Jeff Nelson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 24 in MLB)

Petco Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 20 HR | No. 10 K)

73 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, German Marquez (51% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with four Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  The Padres (21.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Rockies are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.6% according to THE BAT X

·  Strikeouts against Colorado may be easy to come by today, as three players (Dom Nunez, Sam Hilliard, German Marquez) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement as only 29% of the cash is on the Colorado Rockies, but their Moneyline has dropped from + 185 to + 170

·  The Padres Moneyline has 67% of the bet tickets and 71% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  This season the Rockies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 57-45 resulting in + 6.50 Units (6% ROI)

·  The San Diego Padres Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 56-48 resulting in + 3.95 Units (3% ROI)

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

A Numbers Game: Keep an eye out for diminishing returns on teams that you were high on at the beginning of the season like the Colts. Know when to sell on these teams.

Follow The Money: QB play is down in the NFL, according to Michael Lombardi. Worth looking at more Unders until it changes.

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Tim Murray: Florida -10 vs Mizzou

Dave Tuley: Texans +7 at Jaguars

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-10-03_at_7.42.33_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close