This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.
TODAY'S RANKINGS
Today's Best Starting Pitchers
1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 3 out of 339)
2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 11)
3. COL - German Marquez (No. 27)
Today's Worst Starting Pitchers
1. STL - Jake Woodford (No. 310 out of 339)
2. LAA - Jaime Barria (No. 260)
3. NYM - Rich Hill (No. 228)
Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires
1. OAK at LAA - Tripp Gibson (No. 6 out of 110)
2. MIL at ATL - CB Bucknor (No. 19)
3. HOU at SF - Brian O'Nora (No. 28)
Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires
1. MIN at STL - Carlos Torres (No. 13 out of 110)
2. KC at TOR - Andy Fletcher (No. 21)
3. COL at SD - Jeff Nelson (No. 24)
Today's Hottest Games
1. MIL at ATL (88 degrees)
2. OAK at LAA (81 degrees)
3. CHC at WSH (80 degrees)
Today's Coldest Games
1. HOU at SF (62 degrees)
2. KC at TOR (65 degrees)
3. SEA at TEX (70 degrees)
THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals
· Oakland Athletics
Projected: 5.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -100
· Toronto Blue Jays
Projected: 5.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110
· Milwaukee Brewers
Projected: 5.20 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115
THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals
· Miami Marlins
Projected: 3.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -135
· Colorado Rockies
Projected: 3.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125
· Pittsburgh Pirates
Projected: 3.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125
THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals
· Athletics at Angels
Projected: 10.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115
· Royals at Blue Jays
Projected: 9.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105
· Brewers at Braves
Projected: 9.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O + 100
THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals
· Rockies at Padres
Projected: 7.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -110
· Yankees at Marlins
Projected: 7.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115
· Astros at Giants
Projected: 7.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105
GAMES OF THE DAY
Toronto Blue Jays (52-48) vs. Kansas City Royals (45-57)
O/U: 9.5 | TOR -250 | KC + 210
Alek Manoah (THE BAT's No. 43 SP) vs. Mike Minor (THE BAT's No. 72 SP)
Andy Fletcher (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 21 in MLB)
Rogers Centre
65 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Alek Manoah may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 85 pitches
· The Blue Jays (20.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today
BETTING INSIGHTS
· The Game Total UNDER opened at 10.5 Runs (-120), but is now UNDER 9.5 (-115) and is showing the most line movement on the slate today
· The most line movement today is the Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline as it opened at -190 before dropping to -250
· The Blue Jays Run Line has 69% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle
· There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 66% of the bet tickets and 65% of the cash is on the Blue Jays
· The Kansas City Royals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 53-45 resulting in + 4.91 Units (4% ROI)
· The most profitable market for the Toronto Blue Jays has been their Run Line which is 55-45 generating + 1.75 Units (1% ROI)
Chicago White Sox (61-43) vs. Cleveland Indians (50-50)
O/U: 9.0 | CWS -155 | CLE + 135
Dallas Keuchel (THE BAT's No. 96 SP) vs. Triston McKenzie (THE BAT's No. 117 SP)
Mike Muchlinski (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 37 in MLB)
Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)
78 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Dallas Keuchel (56% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup
· Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Ground ball hitters, and Triston McKenzie (40% FB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today
· The Indians are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.0% according to THE BAT X
BETTING INSIGHTS
· There is reverse line movement on the Indians Moneyline as it's dropped from + 155 to + 135 despite only getting 30% of the cash
· This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 74% of the bet tickets and 70% of the cash is on the White Sox
· The Game Total has 75% of the bet tickets on the UNDER, but 29% of the cash is on the OVER resulting in two-way action
· The Chicago White Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 54-49 resulting in + 10.15 Units (9% ROI)
· The Cleveland Indians Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 55-42 resulting in + 9.30 Units (8% ROI)
San Diego Padres (60-46) vs. Colorado Rockies (45-59)
O/U: 7.0 | SD -200 | COL + 170
Yu Darvish (THE BAT's No. 36 SP) vs. German Marquez (THE BAT's No. 26 SP)
Jeff Nelson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 24 in MLB)
Petco Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 20 HR | No. 10 K)
73 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, German Marquez (51% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with four Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup
· The Padres (21.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today
· The Rockies are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.6% according to THE BAT X
· Strikeouts against Colorado may be easy to come by today, as three players (Dom Nunez, Sam Hilliard, German Marquez) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X
BETTING INSIGHTS
· There is reverse line movement as only 29% of the cash is on the Colorado Rockies, but their Moneyline has dropped from + 185 to + 170
· The Padres Moneyline has 67% of the bet tickets and 71% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle
· This season the Rockies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 57-45 resulting in + 6.50 Units (6% ROI)
· The San Diego Padres Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 56-48 resulting in + 3.95 Units (3% ROI)