MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16325110

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. LAD - Clayton Kershaw (No. 10 out of 337)

2. SD - Yu Darvish (No. 17)

3. MIA - Sandy Alcantara (No. 45)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 326 out of 337)

2. PIT - Cody Ponce (No. 295)

3. CLE - Eli Morgan (No. 294)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. BOS at OAK - Dan Bellino (No. 8 out of 110)

2. HOU at CLE - Roberto Ortiz (No. 10)

3. MIN at KC - Will Little (No. 34)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SD at PHI - Adam Beck (No. 13 out of 110)

2. SF at ARI - Jeff Nelson (No. 21)

3. MIL at PIT - Junior Valentine (No. 35)

Today's Hottest Games

1. STL at COL (85 degrees)

2. MIN at KC (85 degrees)

3. MIA at ATL (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. BOS at OAK (62 degrees)

2. NYM at NYY (63 degrees)

3. TB at TOR (68 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 6.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 6.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.72 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.99 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 4.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -130

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Cardinals at Rockies

Projected: 11.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 12.0 O -120

·  Cubs at Reds

Projected: 10.57 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Astros at Indians

Projected: 10.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Phillies

Projected: 8.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

·  White Sox at Tigers

Projected: 8.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -110

·  Red Sox at Athletics

Projected: 8.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Kansas City Royals (34-47) vs. Minnesota Twins (33-47)

O/U: 10.0 | KC -145 | MIN + 125

Danny Duffy (THE BAT's No. 50 SP) vs. Griffin Jax (THE BAT's No. 210 SP)

Will Little (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 34 in MLB)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 14 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

85 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

4 mph in from RF (No. 4 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Danny Duffy may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 77 pitches

·  Danny Duffy's fastball (93.2 mph) is 1.6 mph faster than it was in 2020

·  The spin rate on Danny Duffy's fastball (2283 rpm) has increased by 110 rpm in 2021

·  Danny Duffy's skillset (36% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Kauffman Stadium (No. 1 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform better against Fly ball hitters, and Danny Duffy (36% FB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  Danny Duffy's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  Danny Duffy and his 2.44 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.96 thus far in 2021

·  The Royals offense is quite fast; they have the No. 4 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Whit Merrifield, Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier, Michael A. Taylor)

·  The Twins have four players (Trevor Larnach, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Minnesota Twins Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 51-25 resulting in + 23.55 Units (27% ROI)

·  The Kansas City Royals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 42-36 resulting in + 3.72 Units (4% ROI)

·  Kenta Maeda's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+ 125/-165)

Detroit Tigers (36-46) vs. Chicago White Sox (49-32)

O/U: 9.0 | DET + 105 | CWS -125

Tarik Skubal (THE BAT's No. 162 SP) vs. Dallas Keuchel (THE BAT's No. 110 SP)

Comerica Park (No. 21 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

80 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

10 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tarik Skubal's spin rate (2200 rpm) has decreased by 222 rpm in 2021

·  Tarik Skubal is throwing a fastball 13% less often this season (48% usage) than he did last season (61% usage)

·  Tarik Skubal's fly ball nature (43% FB% since 2019) should play well in Comerica Park (No. 4 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that fly ball pitchers are least effective against Ground ball hitters, Tarik Skubal (43% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are least effective against fly ball hitters, Dallas Keuchel (57% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Dallas Keuchel's 3.96 ERA is 0.67 points better than his 4.64 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Tigers (26.9 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The White Sox (0.325 wOBA) have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Detroit Tigers Moneyline opening price of + 120 has steamed 15 cents and is now + 105

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 66% of the bet tickets and 56% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The most profitable market for the Chicago White Sox has been their Run Line which is 41-39 generating + 7.45 Units (8% ROI)

·  The Detroit Tigers Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 36-46 resulting in + 4.15 Units (5% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Dallas Keuchel's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+ 120/-155)

Los Angeles Angels (40-41) vs. Baltimore Orioles (27-55)

O/U: 9.5 | LAA -210 | BAL + 175

Alex Cobb (THE BAT's No. 87 SP) vs. Jorge Lopez (THE BAT's No. 224 SP)

Jim Reynolds (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 40 in MLB)

Angel Stadium (No. 18 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

75 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

8 mph out to CF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Alex Cobb has been throwing a fastball (45% increase) far less often in 2021 (3% usage) than he did in 2020 (48% usage)

·  Alex Cobb has been throwing a sinker (41% increase) far more often in 2021 (41% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Alex Cobb's ability to keep the ball on the ground (55% GB% since 2019) should help him in Angel Stadium (No. 5 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Alex Cobb (55% GB% since 2019) projects to face three fly ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Ground ball pitchers perform worst against fly ball hitters

·  Alex Cobb is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his reverse platoon split

·  The Angels (0.324 wOBA) have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Orioles have five players (Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Pedro Severino, Maikel Franco, Trey Mancini) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 10.0 Runs and is now 9.5 Runs

·  The Game Total has two-way action as 54% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 20% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Angels has been their Game Total Over which is 50-31 generating + 15.35 Units (17% ROI)

·  Shohei Ohtani's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 230/-365) is the most popular prop for the game

back to news

PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Close