MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 337)

2. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 4)

3. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 8)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 317 out of 337)

2. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 310)

3. MIA - Braxton Garrett (No. 306)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. STL at CIN - Adam Hamari (No. 6 out of 110)

2. SD at MIA - Doug Eddings (No. 7)

3. COL at LAD - Vic Carapazza (No. 13)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. TEX at HOU - Alfonso Marquez (No. 2 out of 110)

2. WSH at BAL - Nic Lentz (No. 8)

3. DET at KC - Mark Carlson (No. 10)

Today's Hottest Games

1. DET at KC (95 degrees)

2. LAA at MIN (91 degrees)

3. ARI at CHC (89 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. PIT at SF (59 degrees)

2. TEX at HOU (72 degrees)

3. SD at MIA (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 6.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 6.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 5.98 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 3.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  D-Backs at Cubs

Projected: 12.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O + 100

·  Rays at Indians

Projected: 10.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -120

·  Tigers at Royals

Projected: 10.51 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  White Sox at Brewers

Projected: 7.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -110

·  Pirates at Giants

Projected: 8.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O + 100

·  Blue Jays at Mets

Projected: 8.11 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds (50-47) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (49-49)

O/U: 9.5 | CIN -180 | STL + 160

Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 18 SP) vs. Jake Woodford (THE BAT's No. 293 SP)

Adam Hamari (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 6 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

87 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Luis Castillo's fastball spin rate (2312 rpm) has jumped 124 rpm since 2020

·  Luis Castillo's ground ball tendencies (56% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park (No. 1 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Luis Castillo (56% GB% since 2019) projects to face three Fly ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Ground ball pitchers perform worst against Fly ball hitters

·  So far in 2021, Jake Woodford has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 4.06 ERA despite a 5.59 FIP

·  Cincinnati boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher xwOBA this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Joey Votto, Jonathan India, Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker)

·  The Cardinals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.297 wOBA going forward

·  The Cardinals have three players (Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson, Paul DeJong) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 92% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets is on the OVER

·  The most profitable market for the St. Louis Cardinals has been their Team Total Under which is 51-41 generating + 6.02 Units (6% ROI)

·  The Cincinnati Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 51-43 resulting in + 3.90 Units (4% ROI)

·  Luis Castillo's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+ 110/-145)

Houston Astros (59-39) vs. Texas Rangers (35-63)

O/U: 8.0 | HOU -220 | TEX + 180

Framber Valdez (THE BAT's No. 38 SP) vs. Kyle Gibson (THE BAT's No. 105 SP)

Alfonso Marquez (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 2 in MLB)

Minute Maid Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Framber Valdez is throwing a sinker 14% less often this season (42% usage) than he did last season (56% usage)

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Framber Valdez (64% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Framber Valdez has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.26 ERA is 1.02 points below his 4.29 FIP

·  Kyle Gibson has been throwing a cutter (13% increase) far more often in 2021 (13% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  The Houston Astros's 19.8 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the least on today's slate of games

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.334 wOBA have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Astros offense has the No. 2 (tie) most hitters in baseball with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or better this year (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley)

·  The Rangers offense is quite fast; they have the No. 4 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Adolis Garcia, Eli White, Nick Solak)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Astros Moneyline has steamed 30 cents as it opened at -190 and is now -220

·  The Game Total has two-way action as 66% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 21% of the cash is on the OVER

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 85% of the bet tickets and 80% of the cash is on the Astros

·  The Astros Moneyline has 75% of the bet tickets and 89% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  This season the Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 56-41 resulting in + 11.65 Units (11% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Framber Valdez's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+ 120/-160)

Los Angeles Dodgers (59-40) vs. Colorado Rockies (43-54)

O/U: 8.5 | LAD -220 | COL + 180

Tony Gonsolin (THE BAT's No. 117 SP) vs. Kyle Freeland (THE BAT's No. 121 SP)

Vic Carapazza (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 13 in MLB)

Dodger Stadium (No. 9 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

75 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

7 mph out to CF (No. 4 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tony Gonsolin's fastball velocity (92.7 mph) has been down 1.9 mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  Tony Gonsolin's fastball (2375 rpm) has lost 114 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Tony Gonsolin may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 5 best home run park in baseball (Dodger Stadium) given his fly ball tendencies (36% FB% since 2019)

·  So far in 2021, Tony Gonsolin has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 2.83 ERA despite a 4.63 FIP

·  Kyle Freeland is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  The Dodgers have four players (Justin Turner, Albert Pujols, Chris Taylor, Will Smith) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Rockies are the No. 2 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 27.9% according to THE BAT X

·  The projected lineup for the Rockies holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Kyle Freeland, Dom Nunez, Sam Hilliard. THE BAT projects all for a Kyle Freeland, Dom Nunez, Sam Hilliard+ underlying K%

·  The Rockies have three players (Garrett Hampson, Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Rockies Moneyline has 25% of the cash, but the it's dropped from + 210 to + 180 resulting in reverse line movement

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 84% of the bet tickets and 75% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The Colorado Rockies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 54-41 resulting in + 7.95 Units (7% ROI)

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