MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 5 out of 344)

2. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 6)

3. CIN - Luis Castillo (No. 21)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. DET - Jose Urena (No. 326 out of 344)

2. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 302)

3. MIN - Charlie Barnes (No. 249)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. MIA at PHI - Roberto Ortiz (No. 19 out of 110)

2. LAD at COL - Mark Ripperger (No. 35)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. MIL at CIN - Carlos Torres (No. 8 out of 110)

2. SEA at LAA - Nic Lentz (No. 9)

3. TEX at TOR - Stu Scheurwater (No. 15)

Today's Hottest Games

1. LAD at COL (89 degrees)

2. MIA at PHI (87 degrees)

3. BAL at KC (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. TEX at TOR (64 degrees)

2. CLE at OAK (69 degrees)

3. MIN at DET (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 6.37 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.44 runs

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.19 runs

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -140

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Dodgers at Rockies

Projected: 11.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -120

·  Orioles at Royals

Projected: 9.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Twins at Tigers

Projected: 9.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at Tigers

Projected: 7.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -125

·  Giants at Cardinals

Projected: 8.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Cubs at D-Backs

Projected: 8.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds (48-43) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (54-39)

O/U: 8.0 | CIN + 125 | MIL -145

Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 21 SP) vs. Brandon Woodruff (THE BAT's No. 6 SP)

Carlos Torres (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 8 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

80 degrees (No. 8 hottest today)

6 mph out to CF (No. 7 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  The spin rate on Luis Castillo's fastball (2309 rpm) has increased by 121 rpm in 2021

·  Luis Castillo's ability to keep the ball on the ground (56% GB% since 2019) should help him in Great American Ball Park (No. 1 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Luis Castillo (56% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Ground ball pitchers perform best against Ground ball hitters

·  Brandon Woodruff's spin rate (2363 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  While THE BAT projects Brandon Woodruff's ERA going forward to be 3.15, his actual has been 2.06 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  The Reds have three players (Jesse Winker, Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Brewers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.303 wOBA going forward

·  Milwaukee boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Avisail Garcia, Luis Urias, Omar Narvaez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Brewers Moneyline opened at -115, but is now -145 and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 7.5 Runs and is now 8.0 Runs

·  The Brewers Moneyline has 65% of the bet tickets and 62% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  This season the Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 50-43 resulting in + 8.00 Units (7% ROI)

·  The Cincinnati Reds Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 48-43 resulting in + 2.60 Units (2% ROI)

·  Brandon Woodruff's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)

Atlanta Braves (44-46) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (54-37)

O/U: 8.5 | ATL -115 | TB -105

Max Fried (THE BAT's No. 67 SP) vs. Josh Fleming (THE BAT's No. 128 SP)

David Rackley (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 32 in MLB)

Truist Park (No. 9 Runs | No. 21 HR | No. 23 K)

82 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

7 mph out to LF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Max Fried's fastball (93.3 mph) is nearly a full mph faster than it was in 2020

·  Josh Fleming may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 83 pitches

·  Josh Fleming (61% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Ground ball pitchers perform best against Ground ball hitters

·  Josh Fleming has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.26 ERA is 0.87 points below his 4.13 FIP

·  According to THE BAT X, the Braves and their 0.320 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021

·  Strikeouts against Tampa Bay may be easy to come by today, as three players (Josh Fleming, Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Rays have three players (Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, Brett Phillips) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Rays was + 105, but is now -105 after it steamed 10 cents

·  The Game Total has 59% of the bet tickets on the UNDER, but 7% of the cash is on the OVER resulting in two-way action

·  The most profitable market for the Tampa Bay Rays has been their Run Line which is 54-37 generating + 16.35 Units (14% ROI)

·  This season the Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 47-36 resulting in + 4.62 Units (5% ROI)

·  Will Smith's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 290/-505)

Los Angeles Angels (45-45) vs. Seattle Mariners (49-43)

O/U: 8.5 | LAA -140 | SEA + 120

Alex Cobb (THE BAT's No. 77 SP) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (THE BAT's No. 138 SP)

Nic Lentz (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 9 in MLB)

Angel Stadium (No. 16 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

77 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

9 mph out to CF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Alex Cobb is throwing a fastball 44% less often this season (4% usage) than he did last season (48% usage)

·  Alex Cobb has been throwing a sinker (42% increase) far more often in 2021 (42% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Alex Cobb's ability to keep the ball on the ground (55% GB% since 2019) should help him in Angel Stadium (No. 5 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Alex Cobb (55% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Ground ball pitchers perform best against Ground ball hitters

·  Alex Cobb has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.23 ERA despite a 2.64 FIP

·  Yusei Kikuchi's fastball spin rate (2279 rpm) has jumped 101 rpm since 2020

·  Yusei Kikuchi has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Los Angeles Angels' 21.5 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 least on today's slate of games

·  Seattle boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Dylan Moore, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, Tom Murphy)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Angels Moneyline has steamed 15 cents as it opened at -125 and is now -140

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 74% of the bet tickets and 60% of the cash is on the Angels

·  This season the Mariners Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 49-43 resulting in + 17.60 Units (18% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Angels has been their Game Total Over which is 53-36 generating + 12.80 Units (13% ROI)

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