MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 6 out of 342)

2. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 15)

3. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 17)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Thomas Eshelman (No. 339 out of 342)

2. PHI - Matt Moore (No. 327)

3. WSH - Jon Lester (No. 315)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. COL at SD - Ryan Blakney (No. 10 out of 110)

2. NYY at HOU - Cory Blaser (No. 26)

3. WSH at SF - Ryan Additon (No. 27)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. STL at CHC - Alfonso Marquez (No. 1 out of 110)

2. DET at MIN - Greg Gibson (No. 19)

3. PHI at BOS - Jerry Meals (No. 21)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CWS at BAL (84 degrees)

2. LAA at SEA (78 degrees)

3. PIT at NYM (77 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. WSH at SF (67 degrees)

2. PHI at BOS (69 degrees)

3. OAK at TEX (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.77 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 2.30 runs

·  New York Mets

Projected: 2.83 runs

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -145

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Red Sox

Projected: 11.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -105

·  White Sox at Orioles

Projected: 9.99 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  Tigers at Twins

Projected: 9.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Pirates at Mets

Projected: 5.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -120

·  Rockies at Padres

Projected: 7.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O 100

·  Braves at Marlins

Projected: 7.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Miami Marlins (38-49) vs. Atlanta Braves (43-44)

O/U: 7.0 | MIA -115 | ATL -105

Trevor Rogers (THE BAT's No. 44 SP) vs. Max Fried (THE BAT's No. 55 SP)

Marlins Park (No. 26 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)

72 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Trevor Rogers's fastball (93.9 mph) has been 1.1 mph faster than it was last season

·  Trevor Rogers has been throwing a changeup (10% increase) far more often in 2021 (28% usage) than he did in 2020 (18% usage)

·  Trevor Rogers has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  Thus far in 2021, Max Fried's fastball (93.3 mph) has been nearly a full mph faster than it was last season

·  Max Fried (53% GB% since 2019) projects to face five Ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Ground ball pitchers perform best against Ground ball hitters

·  Max Fried (4.66 ERA) has been underperforming his 4.04 FIP by 0.61 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  The Marlins (26.9 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Marlins have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30% , according to THE BAT X (Jorge Alfaro, Trevor Rogers, Jazz Chisholm)

·  Miami boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Jon Berti, Adam Duvall, Starling Marte, Jazz Chisholm)

·  Atlanta boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 2 most in MLB (Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, Freddie Freeman)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Marlins Moneyline has steamed 15 cents as it opened at 100 and is now -115

·  The OVER has 92% of the bet tickets and 53% of the cash making it the most lopsided Game Total on the slate

·  There is two-way action on the Moneyline as 68% of the bet tickets are on the Braves, but 62% of the cash is on the Marlins

·  The Miami Marlins Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 46-36 resulting in 5.85 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Atlanta Braves has been their Team Total Over which is 44-36 generating 1.49 Units (2% ROI)

·  Max Fried's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)

Cleveland Indians (44-42) vs. Kansas City Royals (36-52)

O/U: 9.0 | CLE -130 | KC 110

Cal Quantrill (THE BAT's No. 216 SP) vs. Mike Minor (THE BAT's No. 95 SP)

Progressive Field (No. 5 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

74 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

8 mph in from RF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Cal Quantrill may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 80 pitches

·  Cal Quantrill and his 4.20 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.71 thus far in 2021

·  Mike Minor is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  Strikeouts against Cleveland may be easy to come by today, as three players (Bradley Zimmer, Roberto Perez, Bobby Bradley) project for a 30% underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.298 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians have four players (Cesar Hernandez, Harold Ramirez, Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Royals offense is quite fast; they have the No. 3 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Nicky Lopez, Michael A. Taylor, Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Indians Moneyline has steamed 10 cents as it opened at -120 and is now -130

·  The Cleveland Indians Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 48-35 resulting in 10.10 Units (11% ROI)

·  This season the Royals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 46-38 resulting in 5.56 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Jose Ramirez's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 270/-455)

Los Angeles Dodgers (54-35) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (26-64)

O/U: 8.0 | LAD -320 | ARI 260

Walker Buehler (THE BAT's No. 33 SP) vs. Caleb Smith (THE BAT's No. 195 SP)

Tony Randazzo (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 29 in MLB)

Dodger Stadium (No. 14 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

76 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

6 mph out to CF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Walker Buehler's fastball velocity (94.8 mph) has been down 1.7 mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  Caleb Smith is a fly ball pitcher (48% FB% since 2019) and Dodger Stadium is the No. 7 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Caleb Smith (48% FB% since 2019) projects to face four Fly ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Fly ball pitchers perform best against Fly ball hitters

·  Caleb Smith's 3.46 ERA is 0.84 points better than his 4.29 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  THE BAT X projects the Dodgers (No. 4 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.323 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Chris Taylor, Albert Pujols, Justin Turner)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 7.5 Runs and is now 8.0 Runs

·  The Dodgers Moneyline has steamed 50 cents as it opened at -270 and is now -320

·  The OVER has 92% of the cash and 62% of the bet tickets resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The Dodgers Run Line has 73% of the bet tickets and 54% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 72% of the bet tickets and 54% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The Arizona Diamondbacks Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 48-41 resulting in 3.15 Units (3% ROI)

·  Max Muncy's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 305/-545)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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