MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 3 out of 342)

2. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 10)

3. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 14)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Spenser Watkins (No. 338 out of 342)

2. DET - Tyler Alexander (No. 315)

3. CIN - Vladimir Gutierrez (No. 314)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. PIT at CIN - Phil Cuzzi (No. 5 out of 110)

2. ARI at SD - Adam Hamari (No. 8)

3. LAA at LAD - Dan Merzel (No. 25)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SEA at NYY - Alfonso Marquez (No. 1 out of 110)

2. KC at STL - Stu Scheurwater (No. 11)

3. DET at CLE - Greg Gibson (No. 23)

Today's Hottest Games

1. KC at STL (89 degrees)

2. MIA at COL (89 degrees)

3. PIT at CIN (87 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. ARI at SD (69 degrees)

2. TEX at OAK (70 degrees)

3. MIN at HOU (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 6.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -125

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 3.11 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -145

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -120

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 3.54 runs

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Mariners at Yankees

Projected: 10.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  Pirates at Reds

Projected: 10.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -115

·  Marlins at Rockies

Projected: 10.51 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Red Sox at Blue Jays

Projected: 7.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O + 100

·  D-Backs at Padres

Projected: 7.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

·  Giants at Brewers

Projected: 8.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O + 100

GAMES OF THE DAY

Toronto Blue Jays (58-49) vs. Boston Red Sox (64-47)

O/U: 7.0 | TOR -150 | BOS + 130

Robbie Ray (THE BAT's No. 88 SP) vs. Nick Pivetta (THE BAT's No. 130 SP)

Rogers Centre

76 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

9 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Robbie Ray's fastball (94.5 mph) has been 1.1 mph faster than it was last season

·  Robbie Ray's fastball (2266 rpm) has lost 154 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Robbie Ray has been throwing a fastball (11% increase) far more often in 2021 (60% usage) than he did in 2020 (49% usage)

·  Robbie Ray's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  So far in 2021, Robbie Ray has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.04 ERA despite a 3.97 FIP

·  Nick Pivetta has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face seven of today

·  The Blue Jays are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.5% according to THE BAT X

·  Toronto boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette)

·  The Red Sox are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.3% according to THE BAT X

·  The Red Sox offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Hunter Renfroe)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Red Sox Moneyline has steamed 20 cents as it opened at + 150 and is now + 130

·  There is reverse line movement on the Red Sox Moneyline as it's dropped from + 150 to + 130 despite only getting 34% of the cash

Baltimore Orioles (38-70) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (66-44)

O/U: 10.0 | BAL + 195 | TB -235

Spenser Watkins (THE BAT's No. 338 SP) vs. Shane McClanahan (THE BAT's No. 79 SP)

David Rackley (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 29 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 6 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

76 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

8 mph out to LF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Spenser Watkins is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  Spenser Watkins and his 3.81 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 5.49 thus far in 2021

·  Shane McClanahan's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face eight of them today

·  The Orioles have four players (Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino, Ryan Mountcastle) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Rays' 0.312 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Rays offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Mike Zunino, Nelson Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline opening price of -200 has steamed 35 cents and is now -235

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 69% of the bet tickets and 92% of the cash is on the Rays

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 70% of the cash and 55% of the bet tickets is on the Rays

·  Nelson Cruz's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 280/-485)

Houston Astros (65-45) vs. Minnesota Twins (47-63)

O/U: 9.0 | HOU -225 | MIN + 185

Luis Garcia (THE BAT's No. 65 SP) vs. Michael Pineda (THE BAT's No. 207 SP)

Ed Hickox (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 30 in MLB)

Minute Maid Park (No. 24 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Luis Garcia and his 3.40 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.90 thus far in 2021

·  The Astros (21.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Astros (0.335 wOBA) have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  Houston boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher xwOBA this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker)

·  The Twins have four hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Brent Rooker, Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano, Trevor Larnach)

·  According to THE BAT X, the Twins and their 0.322 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Houston Astros Moneyline opening price of -190 has steamed 35 cents and is now -225

·  The Astros Run Line has 68% of the bet tickets and 72% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 69% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets on the Astros

·  Josh Donaldson's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 260/-435)

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